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Baccarat Shoe a day!

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by baccarou, Jan 22, 2023.

  1. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    I think you are right about the guessing part to a degree.
    Mostly, I know where I am going to bet but there are other times that I could go both ways because of the information I have in front of me.
    So yes, then it's down to luck and could be the difference between winning and losing a shoe. I try and just follow whatever was streaking for the longest, but not always. :)
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2023
  2. 5pinn

    5pinn Member

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    hi beatiful cat
    can you give an example
    10 game
     
  3. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I gave a small sample above so just play with it. One tip is that you can't just keep going using the D'Alembert or this modification. At some point you got to reset OR cutback half bet OR just reduce bet because a

    W L W L W L L L L W L will get you pretty deep and at some point recoup will require too many WIAR like 4 or 5 maybe. Run this one starting with 3 units so it will start 3, 2, 2, -2, -3, 4, 3, 3 3 .. . and see how it ends up. keep in mind this wins flat bet!!! So you will see that if you don't stop or reduce the bet at some point it is not particularly effective.


    WWW LL WWWWWWW L WW LL W LL W LL WWW L W L W L W LL W LL WWW LL WW L WW L W LLLL W LL

    Cheers
     
  4. 5pinn

    5pinn Member

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    great results but if it goes deep it loses.
    great results but if it goes deep it loses.
    I always play for two units. 1 unit profit 1 unit commission
    flat bet always good..
     
  5. 5pinn

    5pinn Member

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    soxcat do your ears hear..
    i play the replay of the last 12 results in the table two units are always short.
    win win , hey hey.
     
  6. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    For anybody interested in reading what Stetson Bailey had to say!
    It must be a good 30-40 years since published and Stetson is probably not with us anymore, so I assume it's safe to share it.
     

    Attached Files:

    Jimske likes this.
  7. 5pinn

    5pinn Member

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    pppp>b nonsense
     
    Jimske likes this.

  8. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Take and give, that shoe woulda clip me for -5.4 unit, hey hey.
     
  9. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Using a predetermined selection as a base line is a good idea. I use one. This helps because we may recognize nemesis pattern beginning to develop and alter our selection, bet amount etc. This is all part of MM and discipline. I also use a fixed staged progression which has worked out very well for me. Locking up a win by reducing next bet is always a good idea and the backbone of the D'Alembert. Like Punkcity mentioned with his 21 stuff.

    But the real trick is to use the exact same bet selection on every shoe and win overall. No MM, no stops.

    So for kicks and giggles I ran a fixed placement that I like on all three of the shoes that you posted. All flat bet all Banker bets.

    7.2 24 wagers 70 hands 37 B 33 P or 52.8% B
    2.25 27 wagers 74 hands 39 B 35 P or 52.7% B
    -2.6 26 wagers 75 hands 35 B 40 p or 46.6% B

    Anything stick out?

    Cheers
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2023
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  10. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    That your wins were well over 53%?
     
  11. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Nah, what's real nosenses is scared, loser player thinkin that they can out-guess/presentment/trendings/raods-driving every individual shoe when there are potentially BILLIONS of combination/permutation for a single baccarats shoe. Nonsenses and bulls-shits is tryin to capture a 51%+ strikes rate while makin idiotic, coconut wager on the players side of the equation, hey hey.
     
  12. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Yes. Well over. 55.8% to get about 7 units net for 3 shoes. So about 2.3 units per shoe. Makes one wonder what the strike rate must be to get 1.5 units as some claim? ;)

    Maybe just bet B after pppp. Hehehe.
     
  13. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    :D:D:D
     
  14. Georgie

    Georgie Member

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    Nice. That's a 62.5% Hit Rate in this 3rd shoe. If you can keep that going, you've found the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Bet $1000 or $5000 units or more, and you'll be swimming in money.
     

  15. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    never count chicken before they are hatched .
     
  16. Georgie

    Georgie Member

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    Thanks for the tip. I'm sure this is a better way of doing D'Alembert, and I want to understand it, but I don't quite yet. Would you mind clarifying?

    I get why it's better to begin the sequence with either 3 or 5 units. Let's just say 5 units. But I don't quite understand what circumstance you would increase or decrease your bet, and by how much? And when would you terminate the sequence and reset to 5 units?

    Thanks for your time with this.
     
  17. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Start higher in case you get WIAR at the beginning. If you bet 1 unit and W you can't drop back to lock up a profit. So you get that part. After any 2 WIAR you stay at the previous bet until lose. +3, -2, +3, +2 now stay 2 unit until lose That's the flat part. But say you lose a bunch in a row -3, -4, -5, -6 +7, +6, -6, +7, +6 you are now at -2 units. Why continue flat and bet 6 units next? Progressions always need to reduce escalation. If you continue and get -6, -7, -8, +9, -8, +9, -8, +9, -8 now your are picking up only 1 unit and paying high commission.

    It's all up to you. ECD liked U12DM2. Up 1 on a loss, Down 2 on a win, add Optional 2 unit bet on any 1 unit win. A variation on the theme. Vary conservative.

    BTW, these progressions are not my favorite. I just mention them because you mentioned D'Alembert.

    Cheers
     
  18. Georgie

    Georgie Member

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    Got it. Thanks. That's terrific. Yes, definitely a better way to use D'Alembert. Do you have a favorite MM progression you use more than others?

    BTW, that's a great looking cat you have. Is it's name "Jimske"? Georgie's the name of my 20-year old Siamese (Thai) cat who passed away a couple years ago. I miss him every day, but we got a new Thai (Maew Boran) black Konja kitten last year. She's over-the-top cool. Plays fetch for hours just like a dog. Talks a lot. 400-word vocabulary. Jumps from floor up into my arms. Problem solver. Super smart. Natural born killer. She's great.


    20220623_105936.jpg
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2023
  19. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    We lost that cat a few years bsck. We have lots! Yes, like people some are smarter than others! They all different.

    I like staged progressions. I have my preference but depends on the individual. Check some out with practice to find what suits you. There's some here if you search.
     
  20. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Nice picture of the cat


    ND
     

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