Baccarat Simple Method

I have testing countless methods to profit in this game using computer simulation over the years. None really work that well. Jae's method that was discussed on this board was actually not bad but I think took over 4000 units to survive in my testing which is probably not practical for most.

Most of the ideas that have staying power don't really try to amass big profits but just try to survive by keeping the bankroll intact. Here is one such method.

The rules are simple:

(1) Bet selection - Decision Before Last, Banker Only. B P - bet B (or) B B - bet B. Otherwise no bet. You will catch all the long banker streaks and chops but the twos will kill you. Why Banker Only? Banker wins more than 50% of the bets so you will win more bets than you lose. Banker also has the lowest house edge.

(2) Money management - When our profits drop below zero (and only then) we employ a 7 step Martingale 1 2 4 8 16 32 64. If the 64 unit bet loses, we take the loss and reset to 1. If our profit is above zero we flat bet one unit. This gives us staying power but we don't really make much money. It keeps you in the game. You are just playing for comps, really.

Attached below is a simulation I ran on 2800 live shoes. Over 100,000 bets were placed. You can see that results are trying to drift higher despite sharp setbacks from time to time. I am confident, however, that given enough data, this method will implode and go hopelessly negative at some point. Eventually you will run a series of decisions that will impossible to recover from. A hard game to beat, this one.

 

"Bet selection", "Money Management", or anything else you can concoct WILL NOT HELP!!!

You MUST have a VERIFIABLE MATHEMATICAL EDGE OVER THE GAME PERIOD!! CASE CLOSED!!!!

 

Well, yes. But since that is not really possible in the long run, tricks like the above will keep you in the game longer. Banker bets, mathematical progressions only when absolutely necessary, betting only 50% of decisions.

 

Hi Fathead,

Did you try running simulation in your above bet selection but using flat bet only. Did you try other MM such as Dlambert of Oscar Grind?

Thanks

 

I think so. Flat bet trends down early and stays below zero. The others I can't remember but I will run them again for you and repost here, probably Sunday night.

 

Thanks Fathead. Will wait for the result of your simulation on different MMs.

Brgds

 

Okay, in response to Joey Torres requests, here are some additional money management schemes applied to the same database. The bet selection is the same (decision before last, banker only).

First Flat Betting. You can see from the attached chart that we have some luck initially, making some gains, but the house edge takes it toll over time. We end with a loss of over -700 units after over 100,000 bets.

 

Second, d'Alembert. In this case, when our profit drops below zero, we employ the d'Alembert progression. If our profit is above zero, we flat bet. We did survive but at one point we were down over -700 units. I think the highest bet was 38 units so well within table limits but you spent long periods in the red before finally recovering.

 

Third, Oscar's Grind. In this instance, we use the Oscar's Grind progression when profit is below zero, flat bet when profit is above zero. Once again, we did survive but at one point we were down over -1600 units. Highest bet was something like 156 so probably within table limits for most people.

 

Thanks Fathead for the result. Do you have the stats on how many Wins against Losses?

 

I don't know where you guys play out unless you're playing online for one penny to $1 but every Casino I go do that $25 and $50 minimum are you better have hundreds of thousands of dollars to lose if that's the way you guys play bro. But if you play online from a penny to a dollar which I guess maybe some people do I guess it'll work but it sure doesn't work in a casino the way u bros r saying!!!!!!!!

 

Table minimum $ 50 bankroll requirement $6,000.--


ND

 

51,717 wins vs. 49,852 losses or 50.91% winners which is about what you would expect for banker. It should level out to 50.7% longer term.