Blackjack Sizing Your Bets with AceMT True Counts and Kelly Criterion

The golden rule of betting -- Kelly criterion -- says that in any gambling, for optimum results, one shall risk only an amount equal to one’s Positive Expected Value (in %) as multiplied by the person’s bankroll, and if the expected value is negative, no bet at all.

In most of blackjack shoe games with 3-to-2 payout for players’ blackjack, the house’s edge is normally about 0.5% for S17 (dealer stands on soft 17) and about 0.7% for H17 (dealer hits on soft 17) blackjack shoe games. Since every increment of 1 AceMT true count would moves about +0.86% towards the players’ favor, so one may start to bet more than the table minimum at AceMT +1 true count or higher.

Assume you bring with you $10,000 to the casino and sit down at a $10-min blackjack table, and the house edge is 0.5% in the game. Applying Kelly criterion to the game, your optimum one-hand initial blackjack bet can be determined by this formula:

One Kelly Bet = 0.77 x Players' Positive Expected Value (in %) x the size of the Bankroll (in $)

If you carry out the computations, you may get the following results:

 

Betting the exact amount as determined by Kelly criterion will produce the optimum bankroll growth. But it may be impractical to bet $28 at 1 AceMT true count or $94 at 2 AceMT true count for a $10,000 bankroll. For convenience, one may decide on a base bet-unit for each $10,000 bank roll, and bet a different multiple of the base-unit at different AceMT true counts. Say, if you have decided that you will play at a $25-min table, you may select a chip of $25 as your base bet-unit, even though a $30 bet-unit may produce a better result in terms of bankroll growth.

In fact, many knowledgeable blackjack card counters have opted to bet an amount somewhat smaller than 1 Kelly criterion bet, since it is VERY DANGEROUS to over bet. If you bet more than 1 Kelly bet, the growth of your bank roll may begin to decline from the optimum 1 Kelly bet. If you always really over bet, say, more than 2 Kelly bets, the growth of your bankroll become NEGATIVE, and your bankroll will be wiped out eventually. SO, IT IS ALAYS SAFER TO BET SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVELY.

Also Kelly criterion has one special characteristic: If you bet less than 1 Kelly bet, your bankroll will still grow, although at a slower rate. And importantly, even if you bet only 50% of 1 Kelly bet, your bankroll will still grow at 75% of the optimum rate. So betting anywhere between 50% and 100% of 1 Kelly bet is always a good betting choice.

With all these in mind, the following bet units are suggested at various AceMT true counts at dealer-stands-on-soft 17 (S17) blackjack tables for a $10,000 bank-roll.

 

I dated a lady named Kelly. But I think she was Presbyterian, not criterion.

Anyway, if you focus on strong deck compositions the over betting is the oppositions problem.

 

John Larry Kelly, Jr. is long dead. His ghost is an equal opportunity employer. Any card counter who violates the command/criterion that John laid down will be whacked. Don't think you can plead for special favor with strong deck compositions. You may be wasting your time to count 5 twice. Not even once is needed.

 

What's been played vs what still remains. A card cant hurt you if it no long exists. That is the problem with shoe's and shallow pen in pitch games.

For instance, suppose you have 16 with a max out. You know all the 2-5s are exhausted. Stand and hope the dealers hole card forces a hit is your only option.

Verite is the best way to gauge your game. Your errors will glare. Competing with your mind will give you peace. Throwimg money at it will take a piece of your mind.

Casino tolerance is better to learn than Kelly. Cant win if you cant play. No?

 

A lot of ground was covered. I can agree 100% ONLY WITH “Cant win if you cant play.” Reasons:

1. Plenty of casinos to go to in 2021, if you do not limit yourself to 1 or 2-deck pitch games, aka the blackjack of 1960s. Playable 1 or 2-deck pitch games no longer exist in 99% of the casinos in my observations, but shoes with decent pens are still widely available.

3. The trick of playing shoes is don’t exhaust yourself already while you wait for a good count. Once there, the good count will stay there for quite a while in the shoe. Plenty of opportunities for a counter to exploit with table-min to table-max as the only logical “bet spread.”

4. Kelly, Kelly, Kelly! After learning how to count, REGARDESS OF THE COUNTING SYSTEM LEARNED, the most important lesson to learn is money management per Kelly criterion, not Verite or what have you.

PS -- Verite may be useful to simulate traditional counting systems, BUT CAN’T BE USED TO SIMULATE AceMT. (People smarter than Moraine said so.)

 

Query, how the hell a cat gonna have any longevity spreadin tables min to tables max, hey hey????

 

A "cat", more like a "puppy", has a lot to learn. Don't limit to the tricks of sit, in-out, and shake-hands only. At least should also include play-dead, aka camouflage, before its biological clock turning off all learning ability.

The 11th Commandment: Thou shall look dumb, but play smart in casino.

 

Verite is a blackjack game. One has the ability to play exactly the way the would in a casino. So yes, one could play out your count and strategy.

Essentially, you give the 9 the same weight as the 5?

Holy crap

 

I personally know a coupla cats what got the gavel from joints in Vegas simply spreading their bet from 1-8 or 1-10 unit and usin GRENS AND REDS CHIP! So, I think that no matter how you try to conceal it, yer just askin to get the gavel if you try to spread tables min to tables max, hey hey.

 

AceMT counts TRUE FRIENDS only. If not a true friend, not counted at all. 2, 5 or 9 does not matter. Beauty is in the simplicity looking from afar. Can't see the forest for the trees!

AceMT in truth is Thorp's Ten Count plus Ace. 9 is a small friend. Some injustice for ignoring 9. But if 9 is to be included, Holy Cow, the system may become a Level 2 system. Remember Wong's Halves? Try it in 8-deck shoe games, you will hate it. (In Wong's defense, when his Halves-system was advanced, 4-deck shoe might be the norm, not 6 or 8.)

PS - Not sure what you said about Verite is right. Devil is in the detail.

 

The "coupla cats" you know have a lot to learn too. NEVER USE ANY TOOLS, CHIPS INCLUDED, IN CASINO. Use fingers to count if necessary.

Spreading from Table-min to Table Max requires no tools at all, but need plenty of bankroll for the table one chooses to play.

Example: S17; Table Min: 10; Table Max: $500; Bankroll $30,000. You can bet $480 per Kelly criterion at 3 AceMT true count (roughly Hi-Lo true count of 5) WHEN YOU SO CHOOSE. Not doable???

 

If you cant beat the game in the quiet and privacy of your home. How do you plan to beat the game in the hustle and bustle in a casino?

 

Good question. but this follow-up:

After beating the game in your home, does it follow that you can beat the game in casino?

The answers to both questions shall be no.

We are talking gambling maaan! Don't give yourself the false confidence and then crash.

 

When you have the ability to know exactly whats been played and what still remains to be played the gamble is minimized considerably.

Compete with more mind than money. I play exactly the same way on Verite that I do in a casino. Not too much surprises me. The end result is the same. The pattern of sessions won/lost are consistent.

Now Im not one of the guys claiming to make a kazillion dollars. But I take what they give me and that pays my bills.

 

It appears you have found a comfortable niche that suits you. Congratulation! Keep the good time rolling.

 

Thanks. That's is a good way of putting it. It's been quite a journey. It didnt happen without a ton of hard work.

Best to you and your book sales.

 

Thank you too. We wish each other success and more success!

 

Formula for Determining Kelly Bets for Playing One Hand in Blackjack:

If you have decided that a certain bet unit, say a $25 chip, is the suitable bet for your bankroll at 1 AceMT true count in blackjack, then this formula can be used to determine the proper bet units at different AceMT true counts:

Bet Units for One Hand in Blackjack = (AceMT True Count - 1) x 2