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Baccarat Small martingale

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by brokercny, Mar 23, 2019.

  1. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    P.S. John Patrick " SO YOU WANNA BE A GAMBLER " ------Baccarat--- 246 pages .



    ND



    Play at your own risk .
     
  2. Roubacc

    Roubacc Active Member

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    RNG shoes are a waste of time and will not give you accurate results. You must use real outcomes.
     
    JAMESBANKROLL009 likes this.
  3. brokercny

    brokercny Active Member

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    Roubacc , I don’t like RNG either but they’re randomness is completely different than randomness of live dealer? Please elaborate if you can.
     
  4. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    brokerny,


    Concentrate on MONEY Management.


    You cannot even comprehend what the next result shall be neither can the mentor telling you what to look for.


    MM is the Key word .
     
  5. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    Money Management, or whatever crap you went to call it, on any -EV game all leads to the same poor house. Don't quit that paycheck job.
     
  6. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Are you in the insurance business? EV is calculated base on assumption. It is only true when the law of averages occurs. Again the edge is small. Does not impact the thinking player that much.
    What are the chances of you being strike by lightning every time you go out or hit by a car every time you cross a road? So, why are you not at home everyday? Oh , an airplane might crash into your home.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  7. R19

    R19 Active Member 👹 Troll 👹

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    The odds of a bad result playing are way higher than bruh crashes unless the skills are strong.
     

  8. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    We are not talking about odds here. We are talking about EV. The word is "expected 'therefore it might not turn out as it is expected. The people who gambles loses NOT because of EV. It's the mentality and approach.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  9. R19

    R19 Active Member 👹 Troll 👹

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    So to clarify, you conflated playing baccarat with the risk in events which can occur in life like crossing the road or a flight crashing, but now you are not? Do you even play at all? Ever? I think that you do not at all ever by your wonderfully insightful comments about openly battling and engaging in war with a casino. Experienced and skilled baccarat players or players of any game don't go into a session expected the terrible outcomes that do happen. You would know this already if you actually played. So please tell us about your Billy Ray Valentine super secret special forces play that flies under the active radar, watchful eyes, and surveillance of the casinos and earns $1 a day.

    THIS IS WHY I LOVE IT HERE! I LEARN SO MUCH FROM SUCH PROS. THIS IS WHY I AM ON MY WAY TO THE PRO MESSAGE BOARDING CIRCUIT. SERIOUS QUESTION FOR MANY OF YOU.... HOW HIGH AND WHAT ARE YOU HIGH ON WHEN YOU POST ANYWHERE?
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2019
  10. brokercny

    brokercny Active Member

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    so i tested out my new variation to the strategy i used. i ran the test against 8 shoes i previously tested against. i had 2 losing shoes out of the 8. +245 units on the wins and -204 units on the losses. only 1 shoe i had no chance of making any profit. was losing bad right at the start and never really recovered, losing 14 units. max drawdown for that shoe was at 17. this strategy just uses a 2 step martingale so a profit has to be grinded out during the shoe. 2 of the shoes had a nice win streak at the beginning, 1 for 12 wins and 1 for 10 wins. there are no set rules on when you need to stop, so you can walk away after the first loss, so you can have 11 and 9 unit wins on those. i will keep testing on shoes every night after work. when you're using a 5 step martingale or even a higher one, you need to bring a specific bankroll to play with. i like this because you can wager higher bets right off the bat. unless you get a really bad shoe on your first go around, i dont see a big drawdown at all.
     
  11. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    OMG! What I am implying is if the House Edge of 1+ % bothers you, then those life events should bother you too. It's my experience that going battle with the Casino will make you a loser in the long term. You have to "steal" or what the casino personnel term you as a "casino" rat. Extensive charting and only play a few hands in a shoe.
    By the way I suspect you and jbs is the same person. You post extensively WITHOUT offering any type of play. A bunch of nonsense and jbs only come in and say the same shit and never reply.
     
  12. John Blerg

    John Blerg Well-Known Member 👹 Troll 👹

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    i guess when U guys cook your dinner you open the can of soup from opposite end and call it being fucking creative and put your hot pockets in the micowave upside down, ROMAFL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    unless U get a bad shoe right away U will win money. Fuck me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    seriously a bunch of fucking fucktards! U are fucking dangerous!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I bet Ur wife watches porn when U are at work saving for Ur casino bankroll every nite!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    run the history on Ur puter, probably lots of BBC, BlackZilla, Hung Like Johnny Horse, shit like that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Remember 18 inches is pretty hefty and not Hefty the Garbarge Bag Man!~!!!!!!
     
  13. brokercny

    brokercny Active Member

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    ok so heres my new update and i need some suggestions what else i can do with this. ive only tested another 5 shoes. this time around was not profitable at all. some of the shoes started out terrific and if you would have stopped after being in profit of 5 or more units, you could have prevented 1 of the losing shoe. 1 shoe actually started out with a 3 unit loss than won 18 consecutive series following that loss, but the shoe ended up exactly even at 30 units up and 30 units down(loss with commission). so my question for you guys is, what if you start out with quite a few 3 unit losses and a few wins here and there. ive see it as ugly as negative 10 units in the first 6 betting series. would you continue the rest of the shoe or would you quit at that point or would you have quit even before the 10 units and maybe 6 units(lost first 2 betting series). by the way, that shoe ended being down 11 units so it didnt really get any better or worse. the 5 shoe results are as followed: +6,-10,-2,-4,-11,0
     
  14. R19

    R19 Active Member 👹 Troll 👹

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    brokercny, I could give you a shit ton of advice contrary to what Craps latest view on me or Jolly JB Cat Frosty the Snowbruh or anyone else here or in any casino thinks. Real funny for sure because Alphonse Relax/ Jolly JB Cat Frosty the Snowbruh is all super serious bruh over at the Bet Selection CC, but he decided to follow me here and troll max LEVEL 10 all over this site with his ghost posting army for almost one year. The prevailing attitude here and everywhere is zero alliance, zero support, and zero care for any other player at all other than very limited shifting sands alliances. I experienced that first hand last night at my house and now I am at couldn't care less don't give a fuck level. That is, when I am really cranking at a hot table, I look for others. People I know at my house do not act that way at all.

    I mention this because it is directly relevant to development of a way to play. For me, I have to arrive at the point once and for all that if someone places $1,000,000,000 on a position or 1,000 people do that I couldn't care less and place $10 against, look them all dead in the eye with a fuck you, and do that over and over and over and over until the game is no longer offered. I do not care any more because I have experienced variations of most everything under the Sun when it comes to the game. Nobody really wants to team up and win so who cares. So dumb beyond belief attitude, but that is reality.

    And the baccarat players that I follow on social media that post good results are mostly in the game with extensive backgrounds in poker and black jack, but I am sure there are many that are straight baccarat and only baccarat. We are speaking about many, many years of experience. However, they mostly do not give away much in how they are playing... what approach. Trend this, trend that, manage variance this, manage variance that. Follow the Big Road only, follow the Big Road and the Bead Plate only, use the Macau derived roads as well or don't.

    If you have an approach to play that is legitimately capable of grinding trough most every shoe, it should be cranking win, win, win through most every shoe you test on. That is 70% ++ of the real casino baccarat shoes in testing. My current approach is in line with that. Although, it has discretionary in parts where you have to jump off and follow trends that conflict with the foundation so the difference is all in that and the execution back and forth. The best real testing is live play followed by simulated play in a live casino or on-line live as it is happening because unless you are super boss in your execution, there is always going to be some element of casino dynamic fucking up your play.

    I try to ask people about the legitimacy of Dragon Ace Casino for testing and training and everyone has the selfish attitude fuck all attitude I mentioned above. 1 billion percent crickets, but the game has been offered for 8 years and people from around the world are playing. To me, Dragon Ace Casino is a very good representation and you can tear through a baccarat shoe in less than 15 minutes start to finish on high speed private table if you want. The advantage of testing with live play, simulated play in a live casino or on-line live, or games like Dragon Ace is that if you are not cheating then you do not know what comes next. If you do not cheat and you test for real then your results on an approach should have value.

    So back to real play in a casino with an approach that shows strength in testing. This is where I have the problem as well. A strong approach, it should be able to sustain win through a good enough percentage of shoes to be net profitable in real play. That is, if you keep your position size in check, do not go on tilt, follow the approach, and fuck all the casino dynamic, you should walk away with a positive result. Every approach to play is going to go into the red at some point in a shoe, even the best shoes. Some baccarat shoes are much more difficult than others.

    A strong approach should still experience 7, 12, 15 or whatever unit draw downs. This is where it is very tough. You start at a shoe and your approach gets you up 5, 8, 15 units and then you keep going and before you know it that is swept back. But you still have to go... An end result on 2 to 4 shoes of red result in the read of -5 to -20 units isn't going to matter if you can crank 6 or 8 shoes of 5 - 20 +++ units for a net positive result. Is jumping around from table to table going to wind you up with better? If you are very, very, very good at that then maybe.

    For me at this time the casino dynamic is the fuck all. When I train and practice I am at a way higher level than real play. I go in and it is all the bruhs on both sides of the table and everything negative about the casino. It is the temptation to cheat the fuck out of an approach and max lose by playing off an approach/ drifting, starting to hop around to grass is greener other tables, increase position size, get influenced by others. And the pace is massively slow. I trained on a $10 table recently that took almost 2 full hours. 2 fucking hours with no player touching cards at all between the dealer changes (literally I think 5), but mostly players changing for this and that and getting their bets ready, jumping in at the very last second, plus payouts, etc. That is crazy when you can test on a shoe in 15 - 30 minutes.

    If you want to battle harden test an approach just take $100, $300, $1,000, or whatever, you have to say fuck everyone and everything and make the stand to play that approach with that money in real play and see what result you get. Best if you write it all down as you play. If an approach is not strong in testing than most likely it will not do well in real play at all. From what I have reviewed so far, your approach is not strong enough to have a sustained good result. So you should analyze why and see if some adjustments will improve the performance. The best approach in the game is still only going to be in the high 40's% to high 50's% on a baccarat shoe to average somewhere between 50 - 53% if lucky.
     
    eugene likes this.

  15. R19

    R19 Active Member 👹 Troll 👹

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    Also, looking for a strong app that can evaluate play. For example, if you have XX number of baccarat shoes that you play, you can enter the results into an app and it gives you all sorts of stats and analysis of the results. You just load up play #, win/ loss, and position size and it goes to work. They have this for financial trading and other things, but I have not run across anything.
     
  16. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

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    Great post above R19! Of course it's easy in testing where the losses don't really cost you anything. There are plenty of online live casinos where you can start with some chump change and like you say get a real feel for it and not just look back in hindsight saying ''well, I would have bet here and here....'' etc.

    Losing 20 units over 5 shoes happens for the same reason you can win 20 units over 5 shoes. It's nothing to get depressed about. The real test is the reaction to losing a few units over consecutive shoes. If you trust your method and more importantly yourself, don't sweat it because shit happens. A bad day, a bad week is only a disaster if you allow it to be by either chasing your losses or betting money you can't afford to lose. Losing always gives you an opportunity to learn something. What do any of us really learn after a sustained winning period because oftentimes it can set us up for a fall if we don't stay disciplined in our approach.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  17. brokercny

    brokercny Active Member

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    ok my mentor came up with a betting pattern that attacks the chop or a run very consistently. i havent done much testing because he gave me the details yesterday. ive tested it against 3 shoes from RNG machines at Resorts world NYC and matched it against a 4 step martingale and a 5 step martingale. after the 3 shoes with a 4 step martingale and playing every hand in the shoe, it produced +15 units before commission. against a 5 step martingale, it produced +46 units before commission. so far none of the members on his team have experienced negative overall outcome with demo and some real play. he is actually trying to figure out if the 4 or 5 is the better in the long run. im very excited about this and i will update you guys as i get more data.
     
  18. brokercny

    brokercny Active Member

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    we've added 3 more bet patterns to the strategy. its to randomize it and also attacks a temporary trend or chop. seems to work great. tested 4 shoes tonight. first had a bust but broke even unit wise with the wins. 2nd shoe had no bust and 3rd and 4th shoe had a bust each. +37 units after the 4. i decided to test 2 other shoes. this is where it became amazing. first shoe won 40 and second shoe won 35. no bust whatsoever. if it was real play in the casino, i would have ran out of there so fast with the 75 units(even if it was $5 unit). might head over to resorts world for real testing tomorrow if i can squeeze it in my schedule.
     
  19. brokercny

    brokercny Active Member

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    didnt get the chance to head over to a casino for a real test. been working and watching my daughter all week. ill be heading to resorts world saturday night after i drop her off. if im successful, ill probably head over to Sands in PA. on sunday. any of you guys able to meet up? we can discuss this strategy and see what we can come up with.
     
  20. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    brokercny, ditch the mentor (and maybe baccarat altogether)

    But of course—the latter probably isn’t gonna happen, so...

    Doesn’t sound like he has anything going for him aside from some gambler’s fallacy.

    About 8 years ago I thought I found something that would survive a 5 tier Marty. I went over about 150 shoes I’d recorded and it survived, so I thought it had good promise.

    I implemented the system the next day and low and behold it failed for the very first time and coincidentally on my very second shoe of live play. But oh well, turns out that it just needed a 7 tier Marty to survive.

    As you can guess, that didn’t work out either. Gosh, it felt like the casino was out to get me, no matter how much positive testing I did, it would go right out the door the moment I tried to implement it.

    This is where I feel your mentor falls in right around where I was at, I kind of thought I had something that just needed tweaking. It was easy to talk it up to my girlfriend at the time. Especially when I gave her 300 live shoes minus one or two that failed and let her test it herself. In live play it looked good most of the time as well because it could last awhile before busting. BUT WHATEVER YOU ARE DOING, IT WILL FAIL!

    With that said, I’m now going to contradict myself and say that I believe in the Marty. I’ve personally gone from using a modified Oscar’s grind and switched to a two step martingale. The series is 1 unit and then 2 of the first one loses (pretty obvious). The session is 12 units so I can play the two step 4 times before it’s a bust. Normally I never dip into the 4th series. I encourage you to test your method using 2 step marty’s To see if it can survive through 4 busts. If so, I think you may indeed have something. Although, I only profit on average 1 unit per shoe (though my unit is 5k)

    Also, it’s worthy to note that my trigger itself wins flat betting; though it only gains a 1 unit profit on average of 3 shoes, hence why I’ve utilized my two step martingale.

    I wish you well, ditch the mentor... especially if he’s charging you or has ever asked for money from you.
     
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