Forex Spider's Den GF Edition

Hello guys. This thread will be dedicated to trading 25 different currency pairs, analysis and all concerning Forex including the most important Money management. Feel free to post charts, analysis and ask questions which are related to currency trading.

 

EURUSD has formed a bullish daily pattern and broke through 1400 and in the context of intraday trading we can assume intraday is bullish. 1300-1325 is a POC confluence zone. If the price gives us a proper pullback we could start searching for long opportunities. Target for the move is 1465- bottom of the flat bottom triangle and resistance and if it breaks 1490. Longs are invalidated below 1252.

 

NZDUSD has confirmed the downtrend on dovish RBNZ statement and we can see that there is a huge drop in pair. POC1 stands around 7350 and it is a zone where we could start searching for short opportunities towards 7270. In the case of greater pullback 7410-7430 zone is providing another opportunity to go short towards 7270. In the case 7270 breaks to the downside we can try to trade one of 3 possible breakout setups ( TH,BR,BPC) towards 7220.

 

GBPUSD has 2 important levels. 5017 to the downside and 5105 to the upside. SO far we have M 1 2 3 bearish pattern on H1 and failed bullish inverted head and shoulders on H4 ( 5050 break- right shoulder much lower then left ). We should pay attention to above mentioned levels. A break below 5017 targets 5000 and 4955 respectively. A break above 5105 targets 5120 and 5168 respectively.

 

AUDUSD dropped heavily after RBA decided to cut rates by 0.25 %. 7625 is the daily low and there is a possibility of a second retest where the break of 7625 would aim for 7600. 7720-30 is POC where we see a nice confluence of previous low, 50.0 fib and L5 which acts as a resistance. This spot is a good place to short it towards 7625-00. We can also see a descending trendline which has confirmed the downtrend after the rate cut.

 

GBPJPY has broken through an inner trend line and we can spot a nice confluence at 177.40-50. As POC zone we see 38.2 fib, DPP,L3 and inner trend line.The zone should give us potential longs towards 179.05. If 179.05 is broken 179.40 and 179.90 is the next. Tomorrow BOE will decide about official bank rate, so pay attention to that report. I dont recommend holding any position then.

 

EURUSD has been sold heavily after ECB announced that it did not accept Greek bonds. In my opinion from a fundamental aspect traders should forget about placing deposits in Central Banks. Greek National Bank needs to fund CBs with additional billion of EUR in next few weeks.

Having said that German Factory orders got a nice boost in early LO session. That is reflected on the chart. Inner TL has been tested around a strong confluence of technical patterns such as DPP, H3 and previous buyers - breakout level. As long as EUR is above 1360 we could expect 1400 1410 1426, focusing on 1400. If EUR drops below 1360 ( 1358) we should see 1320 and 1290 again.

 

EURUSD has completed all upside targets yesterday. However I still think that EURUSD could target 1.1620 on intra week basis as 1360 stood firm yesterday. Today's NFP could bring us a possible retracement in EUR. I am not suggesting going long on resistance, so if we see a pullback around 1390, that level could be used for a possible long trade. Technically we see historical near term buying, inner TLs, 50.0 fib retracement which is close to L4 support. EUR targets are 1500 1540 and 1590. However A sustained break above 1500 is needed for 1540 and 1590.

 

AUDUSD closed on Friday making a bearish pinbar which signifies a lot selling pressure. Dropping down to H1 chart we see a confluence of a lower trend line, 61.8 fib, H3 and near term sellers. 7830 zone could give us chance for intraday setups and trading towards 7800,7770 and 7745.

 

GBPUSD is bullish on intraday charts. The target could still be 5450 for the week but we need to concentrate on intraday movement now. 5275 and 5220 are crucial for GBPUSD. As we can see to the left, there is a failed head and shoulders pattern which trendline shows exactly yesterday's inability to close below it. Pullbacks towards 5220 could be used for long trades, while any hourly close below 5220 could lead the pair towards 5220 and 5165. Bias is bullish though, so 5220 zone is used for position trades while 5275 should be used as a breakout level towards 5300 and 5330.

 

Yesterday AUD dropped heavily on Unemployment Rate and Employment change numbers. Today we should watch for 7695 and 7720 which make for two POC zones and we should expect rejections towards 7660 7640 and 7610. POC 1 shows L3, 61.8, Breakout - retest level while POC2 marks previous high, 88.6 % deep retracement and the top of equidistant channel.

 

NZDUSD has broken out to the upside and it is bullish on intraday timeframe. We want to see a pullback before we make a decision for a long position. POC stands at L3, 61.8, and inner trendline, and shows a good confluence zone (7375-7390). Inner trenline shows a previous breakout point so it is where assume the fresh buyers are. NZDUSD is targeting 7475 and 7520 subsequently.

 

AUDJPY has broken above the running triangle top and ex resistance ( running triangle top trend line ) is now support. It is an inner trend line and it is making a confluence at 92.50-92.60 zone. DPP and L3 are also part of POC and we might expect a bounce in this area. AUDJPY is targeting 93.65 and 94.15. The pair's uptrend is also supported by near term historical buyers who have formed intra week trend line which is also indicated by lower candle wicks.

 

This is a short fundamental overview of EUR situation as it is. It was done by Gary ( PariCovek ) and was posted on other forum: ( i tottaly agree with him )

"Here is my fundamental take on why we should get a strong lift in the EUR against most pairs once the short-term financing is sorted in Greece.

EUR is trading lower at the moment on fear of a Grexit and its potentially failed refinancing, with increasing risk that other countries will follow with an exit (namely Spain). I rate the Grexit (and Drachma MkII being introduced) almost less than 10% chance based on the following:

1. European Commission is partially supportive for the current Greek short term financing proposal;
2. Merkel has not publicly expressed any strong concerns about the current Greek proposal (only Schaueble has) - Merkel is key, she is a problem solver;
3. The Greek public took a vote (last week) and 80% voted that they want to stay in the EU and keep the Euros;
4. If Greece introduce Drachma MkII, it is very likely to cause a Bank run in Greece. In the short term - this could be catastrophic to Greece and increases the risk of default to its Creditors;
5. The EU wants Greece to stay in the Eurozone, as a Grexit increases the risk that Portugal, Spain and Italy may follow;
6. The current Greek Government has publicly expressed that they want to stay in the EU and keep the Euro's - they are just trying to bargain a better deal so they can increase spending in their Government and reduce the privatizations;
7. The Greek Government will try to please the Greek population - refer to point 3 above.
8. The US has signaled to the Greek Government to come to a deal with the ECB, IMF, etc (in other words, US as a potential suitor to fund the debt is unlikely as touted by one of the Greek Ministers).
9. Also, what Foreign Creditor of Greece would want them to go to the Drachma MkII? Greece had a chronic history of depreciating the Drachma - and few foreign investors would want their investment denominated in Drachma as it is likely to reduce their investment value over the longer term. If the debts remain on Euro terms, and Greece introduce Drachma MkII, creditors are more unlikely to get their full investment back as Greece will find it harder to repay its debt denominated in a stronger currency.

To me this short term financing will get done. Then they'll have 6 months to negotiate longer term financing. That's why I have taken long positions on the cheapest stock market in the world - Eg Greece 25.

I am waiting for a suitable point to take a long position on the EUR/USD pair (1.131 was good a little earlier today!).

I expect the EUR to strengthen once this short-term deal is done, either later today or by the end of the week. I would like to wait for a good entry point.

I was proven wrong with the RBA decision a couple of months back, but the more I think it about it - the RBA had a target to get to 7500 and the market was expecting the rate cuts. This time with Greece, the public wants to stay in the EU and keep the Euro's, so its government will try its best to keep their public satisfied."

 

Also this was the analysis of USDCAD today which was good for 100 pips!


USDCAD is in uptrend and we can see 2 confluence points where bounce may occur towards 1.2560. First POC comes at 1.2460-70 zone and we can see L3, 61.8 fib and near term buyers in history. In the case of a deeper pullback we see 78.6, fib, L4 and inner trendline which make POC2 zone around 1.2430-20. First target is 2520 followed by 1.2560. In the case of extensive volatility it may overshoot to 1.2620.

 

AUDUSD has made some pullback from 0.7775 levels band it has come into the POC zone 0.7800-0.7810. Interim resistance shows at 0.7830, so if the pair manages to stay below 0.7830 it could retest 0.7775 and if it breaks then 0.7755 is the next target. POC is showing inner trend line confluence with L4, 50.0 fib,and inner trendline and it should reject the pair. in the case of 0.7812 breakout the pair might extend the gains to 0.7830 next resistance.

 

GBPUSD is approaching strong 1.5550 zone which could reject the price and give a possible sell trade. Daily candle with Weekly camarilla pivot points has broken through the trend line and it has become the inner trend line now. We should watch for confluence around 1.5550 level, but ONLY if we see a rejection and/or a bearish pattern at the zone we could go for a counter trend setup toward 5475 retest. MACD bullish momentum is too strong so if MACD histogram starts to weaken that would be another confirmation for a fade into strength setup.

 

AUDUSD cash rate is expected to be cut on 3rd of March by 25 bps and the pair will possibly be sold on rallies from fundamental perspective. From technical perspective intraday zones where the pair might react are 7840 zone ( H3, DPP, previous low ,38.2) and in the case of a bigger pullback above 7850 previous breakout point we could see rejection off 7860-70 zone ( H4, 61.8, inner trend line ). The pair should target 7775 and 7740.

 

And nice 40 pips profit

 

GBPUSD is trapped in a range as presumed, and now we need to pay attention to possible breakout and ATR. 1.5458 and 1.5385 are crucial for next intraday movement because GBPUSD is currently in a rectangle formation having a confluence H3 and L4 levels. ATR suggests that targets for the breakout are 1.5478 and 1.5512 to the upside and 1.5563 to the downside. However, having in mind that today is Monday there could be a possible range play 5480-5380 with breakouts as suggested. Pay attention to ATR and MACD also, which shows a mixed momentum.