Forex Spider's Den GF Edition

GBPNZD is showing regular bullish divergence right at support. We can see POC forming at 2.0320 region , where the price has made a double bottom and divergence right at L3 camarilla level. We also see head and Shoulders pattern formed but from risk to reward perspective taking a long at support is better then shorting it especially due to L3 support and divergence. In the case of bullish price action 2.05200 could be reached and only the break of L3 with a retest will target L4 region at 2.01751.

 

And the target has been reach

 

Today our focus is on ECB meeting and EURUSD is expected to reach new lows if fundamentals are aligned with technicals. EURUSD currently stands at L3 level and in order to sell higher we need a pullback as we dont want to sell into support. EQUIDISTANT CHANNEL has been formed after a CONSOLIDATION breakout ( indicated by the blue rectangle on the chart ) and the lower border of the channel is making a good confluence with H3, DPP, 38.2 fib. The POC zone is 1.1100-1.1110 and pullbacks in the zone could be good for new intraday shorts. The target is 1.1000 then 1.0955 if the pair breaks through 1.1000.

 

100 pips from this setup!

 

EURUSD is in a strong momentum and even though it should reach 1.0850 i dont recommend catching a falling knife. EOD ( End of Day ) trading could give us another shot to short it higher but we need a loss of momentum and a retracement towards 1.0930 or 1.0950 region. 1.0930 shows a good confluence of channel bordrer + 23.6 fib and it is still 65 pip pullback so if the pair pullbacks this should be the first entry zone. Higher pullback should be limited to 1.0950 ( L4, 38.2, breakout-retest) towards 1.0850

 

Hey tarantula did you get my response about getting back to me wither with just this forum or e-mail? Just sayin.

 

Please use my email: [email protected]

 

GBPUSD has entered a new bearish momentum and we can see that M 1 2 3 reversal pattern is forming on H1 time frame. Until break of 1.5025 confirms the M GBPUSD may be trapped between 1.5035 and 1.5095. Fresh sellers can be expected at 1.5080-1.5100 zone while the jump above 5110 could accelerate the pair towards 5150.

Pound has been resilient against recent USD strength compared to other pairs but today manufacturing and industrial production data can weight on the pair. In the case of 1.5025 break 1.4995 and 1.4950 are targets.

 

USDJPY is in retracement but as we can see on H1 chart, the pair made a lower high at H3 level. That implies possible continuation of short selling towards 120.70-120.50.

The pair is rejecting L4 support and it is retracing towards POC. POC ( DPP, L3 38.2-50.0 fib, inner trendline ) stands at 121.30-121.45 zone and the pair might reject from the zone towards 120.70-50. We can also see that MACD is showing fresh momentum which implies that now moment sellers could be waiting at POC zone.

 

NZDUSD has reversed the trend after RBNZ decided to keep the rates unchanged. From technical standpoint NZDUSD is standing at first POC (L3, 38.2) at 0.7330 currently and it could bounce off this level towards 0.7430. If H1 candle closes above the level that could be a signal ofr the possible bounce.
However if there is a deeper intraday correction the pair is expected to drop towards 0.7290 region where it should bounce again towards 0.7330 and 0.7430 subsequently. POC2 ( historical buyers, L4, 61.8%, inner trend line ) shows even more confluence then POC1.

 

EURJPY has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern which can become inverted three buddha bottom on next swing down. POC1 comes at 128.10-05 zone ( 38,2. ,DPP, bottom of right shoulder ) and POC2 is at 127.80 zone (L3, 50.0, previous buyers aligned with left shoulder and potentially 3 buddha bottom right shoulder ). The price could reject from there but also if neckline is broken it could reject towards 129.15. Neckline is inclined with an angle and it stands at 129.00, but until H4 level is cleared it can be treated only as a scalp trade. Only if H4 breaks price can proceed towards 129.90 which is actually H5 and inverted 3 buddha/head and shoulders target.

 

FOMC meeting which will happen later in the day is expected to outline further direction of USD crosses. EURUSD is trapped in a range and PRE Fomc range can be defined as 1.0650-1.0550 zone. The price is expected to be in the zone and further breakouts should happen during/after FOMC. If anything happens before it, it could be a fake out or stop grab before the actual move.

From the technical standpoint if EURUSD breaks 1.0550 , 1.0495 and 1.0460 are next targets to the downside. To the upside break of 1.0650 targets 1.0695 and 1.0715. Price Action prior to FOMC may whipsaw in both directions but should stay in pre FOMC range.

 

EURUSD is currently consolidating above 1.0655 . We can see 6 consecutive closes above 1.0655 on hourly chart and only if we see a candle close below 1.0655 the pair might proceed to 1.0630 ( daily low ) and 1.0570 L4 support. Currently the pair is supported around 1.0655 zone but 1.0700 is holding further rally to the upside. If the pair breaks 1.0700 it should proceed to 1.0736 ( last swing high ) and it SHOULD STAY above 1.0700 for 1.0775. At the moment as I have already stated before 1.0655 is the region for long entries and only a close below 1.0655 could give NEW sell momentum towards above mentioned levels.

Until then range play.

 

NZDUSD has been showing signs of strength in recent sessions. Adding to that the economy in New Zealand has expanded by 0.8 % in last quarter of 2014 so we can expect further bullish continuation towards 0.7675 and 0.7740 subsequently. The price has been consolidating above 0.7550 and it has broken through that level and it is forming a bullish consolidation. MACD shows signs of a possible retracement and we can spot a possible level for retracement. POC zone stand at 0.7500-0.7520 zone ( DPP, L3, 50.0, trend line ) and retracement is regarded as a correction in uptrend.. If the pair manages to consolidate above 7610 without any substantial retracement that will be a sign of bullish consolidation towards above mentioned levels.

 

GBPNZD is one of the pairs with highest ATR and it tends to be very fast moving. Its currently in downtrend and we should pay attention to 2 possible points of confluence where it might react. After the stop candle has been formed the pair fell towards L3 zone. Now we can see that MACD signifies bearish trend but that retracement may happen soon. 1.9600-1.9615 ( H3, DPP, 38.2 ) is the first zone where the price might react. In the case of deeper pullback the price might test 1.9666-1.9686 zone ( Breakout-retest/historical sellers, H4 , 50.0 ) and be rejected from the zone. Targets for GBPNZD is 1.9450, 1.9365 ( L4) and if it breaks 1.9310 projected channel bottom.

Beacause GBPNZD has big ATR, its always advised to wait for a pullback before any trades are taken.

 

USD initial jobless claims came better then expected and that put the pair into retracement mode in NY session. Prior to that, USD experienced a strong sell off Because of USD weakness and techs being aligned with fundies -USDCAD dropped perfectly following the techs See the USDCAD analysis .DAX was also down 2 % and US equities were pretty high and it needed a correction. That also lead to drop in USDCAD pair. Now we see a retracement in the form of V shape reversal and 119.20-119.40 region might give a resistance. There is a confluence of previous buyers/now moment sellers, 61.8, L3 and intra week trendline. Little below the level is also a confluence of L4 and 50.0 (119.14) though on V shape reversal, price might jump higher breaking that first l4/50.0 confluence. Anyway it should react at that particular level before coming to POC zone. That could be a another signal for a short towards daily lows at 118.40 which might happen later.

 

GBPUSD has a MASTER candle on daily chart. Master candle serves as interim support and resistance candle , which marks the important range. So until the Master candle is broken the pair is trapped within 1.4633-1.5163 range. We can also see a squeeze which is happening after the master candle which is giving us the hint that the breakout could be strong. If you read the GBPUSD analysis on Friday, you could have noticed that the price perfectly rejected from the POC. But , i need to say that due to NFP this Friday and strong USD still which is still hurting the exporters, mid term traders should pay attention to Master Candle range. Pay attention to master candle breakout when it happens. On the chart we can see Monthly camarilla levels and master candle which holds further GBPUSD movement. GBPUSD is holding price at the lower bottom of L5 and breakout to the downside will expose 1.43xx zone while breakout to the upside and close above L3 will expose 1.5280 and further bullish appreciation.

 

AUDUSD is forming 3 buddha top variant pattern and technically POC at 0.7700-0.7710 shows confluence around 38.2, H4 ad inner trend line. The pair might reject from this region towards 0.7650 and if it breaks and holds 0.7596. Intraday momentum is expected to be faded near POC, but it fails the stretch might continue to 0.7730 and if it breaks the level the pair might lose its bearish perspective.

 

EURGBP is showing a trend zigzag pattern and we can see that currently we have a chance to retrace upwards as MACD is < 0 but in retracement mode. POC comes at 0.7270-80 zone ( H3, 61.8, trend line , previous swing ) and the price might reject from there. 0.7225 and 0.7200 are targets, due to low ATR. Official bank rate decision (BOE) for GBP will be released today so the pair might get another surge of volatility breaking it eventually to 0.7150 zone.

 

NZDUSD has broken through previous high (0.7607) and it is showing a pullback. 0.7575 region shows confluence ( previous 4 time bottom rejection, 50.0 ) and the price might bounce from that spot. However 0.7560-50 region shows stronger confluence ( DPP, L3, 61.8, trend line ) and the pair might pullback to the zone and reject towards H4 -0.7665. We need to pay close attention to the price if it pullbacks to the zone as we have building permits + unemployment news later in the day which will also influence the move for the pair. Yesterday NZD performed very strong and due to pattern -inverted head and shoulders variant and technical picture the pair could proceed higher.