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Baccarat Spot Play

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Mar 17, 2019.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    The alternative to betting lots of hands. Better be at a place where back bets are allowed or there are empty tables with the video results. Look for strong bias and keep the bets to 1 or 2 units. Leave with +3 or +5 or - 5. I guess there's lots of way to pick out certain bias conditions: choppy, streaky, strong side, etc.

    Comments?
     
    JAMESBANKROLL009 likes this.
  2. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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  3. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    That would have to be an incredibly tight game to play along those lines, although not impossible!

    The shoe I posted in the Progressions thread resulted in 22 wins vs 7 losses playing an expansive game because of the characteristics of that particular shoe. However if I had just arrived at the casino with the intent of mimicking some kind of trench warfare, then the results would be WWWWWL played over the first 34 hands. The expansive version above would have resulted in 16 wins vs 6 losses over the first 34 hands.

    If you are going to engage in spot-play, you would really need to be able to handle whatever the shoe throws out with equal measure. The thing as well is that to be able to do that is not just a case of 'black and white' chops and runs. Al's turning points/sections are similar to my own roadmap of a shoe. Although I would say that my forks in the road come at more regular intervals which is probably better suited to spot-play and just grabbing the first unit on offer and resetting for the most part unless the shoe characteristics are displaying runs of something and then it's also ideal to jump in with some kind of positive progression.

    I will be at my local casino tomorrow for a few shoes and will see if I can get away with taking a few pictures and then can start to do a few trip reports.
     
    Jimske likes this.
  4. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Eugene ,


    I always consider your opinion above reproach.


    Stephen `S scenario 8 BR and 4 W G is not out of the conservative line except for the required bankroll of 40 units with an 8 units projected loss limit and a 4 unit anticipated win goal .


    The remaining 75 % of bankroll capital are the psychological crutch on case the 8 units loss are gone . End of session .


    Three of those bankrolls are required to win 2 out of 3 sessions .



    ND
     
    JAMESBANKROLL009 and eugene like this.
  5. gr8player

    gr8player New Member

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    For the most part, this has been my approach to this game for years. While I do not have the luxury of any "back-betting" or, for that matter, many "empty tables", I do have the patience and the discipline to await my preferred plays.

    As to "ways to pick out certain bias conditions", Jimske, I prefer to pounce on certain "dominating" results. I track both the current Player vs Banker results, as well as the TBL vs OTBL results. I'll look for a couple different things: domination of one result over another, minimum and/or maximum current streak lengths, and any impending "beak-outs" after any "new tops". Any one of these will have me betting for its continuance.

    But only flat. And only to pick up a couple of units on average, because I'll cease betting at the first sign that this "dom" might well be "exhausted".

    So, in a nutshell, I am basically a rather conservative "spot-play", "flat-bettor" Baccarat player, especially since my retirement. I'm not looking to make a living at the tables; rather, with no real income anymore, I guess I'm much more into "survival mode". I enjoy this game and I love the challenges it presents, but I want that enjoyment to come as "stress-free" as possible. My approach is built around that philosophy.

    Take care, and be well.
     
  6. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    A welcome blast from the past! And as is his custom the Gr8 one gets right down to the meat of it. What to select? Dominant series, OTBL/TBL, dominant side, break outs, new tops and most common series (MC) are specific examples of what can be monitored. A lot to keep track of without much practice but real doable. I don't actually play this way but something to consider. Who knows? I may change.

    So attached a couple of live shoes played a long time ago I just picked out from my data base random. This is how I like to think I might play these shoes. Of course it's all hind sight. Nothing special about them really. It's in Excel but couldn't upload that extension. Too bad.
     

    Attached Files:

    • Spot.png
      Spot.png
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  7. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Nice to see you posting again Gr8player!

    Thanks for posting those couple of shoes Jimske!

    WW LL WWWWWW L W +6
    WWW LLL WWWW L W +4

    How about this for a shoe today!

    P
    B
    P
    BB
    P
    B
    PPPP
    B
    PPPP
    BBB
    PP
    BB
    PP
    B
    P
    B
    PP
    B
    PP
    B
    PPPP
    B
    PPPP
    BB
    PPP
    B
    PP
    B
    PP

    19 Banker vs 35 Player.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.

  8. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Eugene ,

    Thanks for publishing the results . Bank selection but MM curbed losses to 7 units instead of the calculated 10 unit loss limit . Knowing precisely when to when to terminate a session .


    ND
     
    eugene likes this.
  9. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Spot play = defect of randomness.

    It's worthless to test a method on pc simulated shoes where the randomness is very close to perfection.

    There's no one single possibility in the world to win itlr playing into a perfect random taxed model.

    as.
     
    Jimske likes this.
  10. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Your last couple of posts have given me food for thought Nathan. When all is said and done, the casino is just another player betting the opposite of ourselves. (not forgetting that they have the vig of course) As mentioned many times before, we at least have the option to curtail our play whenever we like. The casino has no such option and could be just as unlucky as any of us. Renzoni talked about this in his book where players who were not afraid to ride their luck could write the casino a new address. It sure isn't rocket science but it's good from time to time to ground ourselves in good old fashioned sense.
     
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  11. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Here is the thing though Asym! There are what appears at least to be several sincere posters on a few of the different forums who claim to win flat betting over a sustained period of time. Now that tells me at least that if they are not just experiencing abnormal fluctuations in luck, then the way they visualize the game and bet accordingly turns the random game into something which is predictable enough at times to make them steady gains. Sure, a lot of people will say that's impossible but positive results over and over again would have to account for more than just luck.
     
    asymbacguy likes this.
  12. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Reading your posts I think you're one of the best gambling thinkers on the net.

    At least in Vegas area, I know for sure that at least five or six persons are getting the best of this game itlr and, not much curiously, everyone adopts a FB strategy.

    as.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  13. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    If you like to do spot play, do this. Document the live game you are on in groups of 2's, 3's, 4's and 5's. Chart them horizontally and you will find tons of runs. Good Luck!
     
  14. gr8player

    gr8player New Member

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  15. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I suppose there's a bit of a misunderstanding. In your situation crowded tables are fine since you'll usually get plenty of chances to no bet while others do. I was referring to the kind of spot play that Assymbac uses where there are shoes with no bets at all and he basically only making a few bets a shoe and only when certain conditions arise.
     
  16. gr8player

    gr8player New Member

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    True, I do more "no-betting" than I do betting, and I am afforded that luxury at mostly crowded tables. The only real downside of that comes along when everyone else at the table is awaiting my next play....and so it then becomes more of a "staring contest", and I just can't stand that. All a part of the "price of admission", I suppose.

    Stay well, Jimske.
     
  17. Junket King

    Junket King Active Member

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    Wow he lives, or is it just a ghost??

    Fighting for survival hmmm, if you could do half of the dribble what you posted on multiple forums over the years. You would be $100,000k better off, with the challenge offer over at WoV, but you didn't want it, need it, wouldn't accept it. Yet "fighting for survival", yep that kinda figures. Another dinosaur deluded Baccarat player, who certainly isn't betting $400 per hand, never was, but makes for a good read. Who's plays are so good and proven [my friend], he is now fighting for survival.

    Surprised you're still here, given the rumours.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2019
  18. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    Why would anyone care more than zero about the Dark Wizard and his stupid little challenge? Most approaches have to switch in and out of bet selection when different trends are occurring.

    Even Brunson FX who is very new to baccarat had a solid enough system, but he would have to build in a more effective shut down or switch when the shoe is building to his system's direct weakness. Now he is evolving it but he still has to work on this aspect. Just one example out of a lot of players worldwide.... yea!

    I have rules for switching gears just like most players that have developed a system or approach and I'm leaving less and less to discretionary. Who cares?
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2019
  19. Junket King

    Junket King Active Member

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    Rubbish, a fallacy, they do not.

    Every bet selection / method will present, has to have a weakness, granted. Yet you can design the weakness to be extremely unlikely to occur with any great frequency. Doesn't matter if it's chops, repeating 2's. 2-1's, or any length of streaks.

    As examples; only losing to 33% of any streak of 3, you could go further and tweak that nemesis to be active 50% of the time, whilst winning against 66% of all streaks of 3, as well as every other conceivable pattern. Or if you wish take things further and use a nemesis of 4 streaks, which should occur less at 6.25% of the time, compared to 3 streaks 12.5% of the time. On it goes, choose what you like, 5 or 6 streaks.

    Maybe take things to the extreme and make your nemesis "only 11% of any streak of 7", meaning you snare a winning bet within a series of bets against any pattern / trend, including 89% of streaks of 7.

    Two points; firstly, it is not necessary to switch, change or guess, adjusting or applying nonsense to independent non-correlated prior decisions \ trends \ patterns trying to place emphasis when it doesn't exist.

    Secondly, if you grasp any of the above, then you would realise, that when it comes to bet selection, Baccarat can easily be beaten.
    However it isn't and why is that? It is because Bet selection is not the 'be all and end all' of the the game, it is not primarily about bet selection, nobody goes to a casino with the intent of wanting to win more decisions than losing. No we gamble for the pursuit of money (generally) to leave with more than what we arrived with. So there lies a massive clue.

    Therefore I place more importance on money management the number one priority, the most significant aspect.
    Secondly would come; patience, discipline and composure and below those two sits bet selection.

    And then there is the dinosaur mentality, those that have been playing for literally decades, spunked all their money and know little about the game beyond what they knew when they first hit the tables.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2019
  20. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    My approach out of the baseline bet selection is consistent and will track on to trends/ formations dynamically. Maybe you don't understand, but I couldn't care less.

    Here is a basic example that maybe you might catch a clue on.

    Eagle is Right Baccarat Strategy:
    1. Always bet Bank no matter if betting.
    2. Option 1: Play through every baccarat shoe always betting Bank because over a large number of hands, Bank should win more and thus resulting in a net win.
    2. Option 2: Have some rule based component either by units or imbalance that turns off play when there are two many Player wins in the baccarat shoe.

    Whatever. Couldn't care less. My approach to play does far better than this so enjoy bruh! I will press streaks of most every type, but there isn't an approach under the Sun that will not have a tough time if widely known formations/ trends are setting up and failing out the right way resulting in a very chaotic/ random baccarat shoe.

    Bet selection is number 1 bruh. You could start with 100 kabillion USD in your bankroll and reach zero even if you put up $10 USD a hand if your bet selection is not good.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2019

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