Craps Sputnik's Corner

Hello, I play for fun and want to have a good time at the tables.
I use binomial probability calculations to get a 50% chance to hit a winner.
And will try to apply the same to the craps table and maybe some parachuting.

Want to share one Craps Youtube Channel that I like.
ColourUp

And I have ordered one DVD by John Patrick (Advanced Craps)
The main reason is that my first project is to study The Richochet.
Got a good impression after reading some heavy posts on hes old forum board

Instead of making several topics, I will stick to my own corner.
And today the government in Sweden remove all the Covid restrictions.
This means that the casino is fully operating.

Cheers

 

Sputnik's Corner
Craps has some of the best bets and some of the worst bets
at the casinos, and it has multiple different types of bets, Pass, Don't pass, come, don't come, place, hard ways, field, hop, buy, lay, hop, C&E, etc. ... so I'm glad you're making Craps your game of choice.

Good Luck with RICOCHET .... a Don't method.

I tend to be more of a DON'T player and find the don't side to be a good way to attack the game. Once you establish a DON'T number .... your bet is a favorite to win. However, anything can happen in the short term. That is why Discipline becomes my best bubby, instead of the devil in my other ear whispering .... reach for more money.

Good Luck from the Dark Side

 

Richochet

Advantage Craps Strategy - YouTube

 

Craps is great recreational game.

I have a lot of different strategies on my channel, even how to build a bankroll to 100x the initial investment.

A recent video I did was my don't pass recycler:



There are four in that series which might be worth taking a look at to understand how it stands up for a Darkside play when the table is very much a lightside dream run.

 

Here a lightside craps parachute video which did quite well:


And a darkside parachute play using lay bets

 

Wow, that is impressive TwoUp - is a nice youtube channel - what is your first real name - I am Patrik From Sweden.
The reason I ask is that you just earn my respect again and again.

Cheers

 

Patrick, I'm Andrew, and thanks, I have right regard for your ideas also.

 

Orbit, you've been on roulette long time .. how come & why switched to craps?

 

Thanks to Jimske who buy and send me the Advance Craps CD with John Patrick.
Now I will learn everything about HEDGING

Cheers

 

Never hedge. Opposing bets do not offset each other when it comes to the house edge. Look as it as though you are playing on three different tables. On one table you are expected to lose 1.38% of the total amount bet on the DP. On the next, you are expected to lose 5.56% of the total amount bet on the YO. On the third, you are expected to lose around 3.23% of the total amount be on the Lay. They don't offset. They compound.

If you want to lower the house edge, bet higher odds multiples.

https://www.casinocitytimes.com/ala...raps-but-you-cant-cancel-the-houses-edge-5248

'Systems based on multiple opposing bets all fail because payoffs aren't arbitrary. They're the odds of bets actually winning, shaved to give the house an edge. Combining complementary bets averages out the edge. Combining opposing bets compounds it.' - Al Krigman

 

To me it ain't make no sense to hedge one -ev proposition with another -ev proposition, hey hey.

 

I always look at it this way, any bet you make can't cover its own losses due to the house edge so it certainly can't cover for the losses of another bet.

However there are certain points where a hedge when used sparingly can provide some benefit when you have other money in action that is being compounded.

Usually for me it is typically when preserving a large bet that I have parlayed up a number of times that I am trying to compound further. For a small insurance premium I have an opportunity to get a probability advantage (a don't pass on an outside number) and multiply the money that would have otherwise been locked up in my rack.

I am happy to keep rolling the snow ball along and make it bugger and I'm happy to push it along with a bit of hedging when it gets to a nice size.

 

Great post. Cheers

 

You are still hedging a bet with a low HE with one or two bets with a higher HE.

The combined HE is greater than the HE for the DP alone. It might work 20% of the time, but the total hedge bet losses for the times it doesn't work, will more than offset any wins.

If you're laying the 10 and adding a Yo for a hedge, you are more than tripling the size of the initial bet, and more than doubling the HE on the total amount bet.

If you're betting Any 7 plus a Yo for a hedge, you are increasing the size of the initial bet by $35% and increasing overall HE for the roll, tenfold.

Better to halve the DP bet, to give yourself two chances at getting behind an outside number, and maxing the odds for the lowest possible HE.

 

No I don't do any of that.

I am not a hedger as per my first post, only very specific situations where I have a five fold multiple on my original bet.

Please don't lecture me on house edge, I know all about it and I use math extensively. Whilst house edge is important it is not the sole consideration in craps as utility is a factor in many strategies.

If you want to lose at craps only ever play a passline or a don't pass as per the mathematical lowest house edge and always add max odds. Why not play a 3 point Molly and get it over with sooner.

The casino math is based across all players, it does not reflect the variance you are exposed to in a session, which is what will damage your bankroll before house edge is a factor.

I will hedge the seven on comeout and again only in sepecific situations when I have a DP pressed up to multiples of my base bet. I only use a lay bet and not on an outside because that is where I want to be. Usually it's for a single point cycle (or two) on the comeout because my session is done by then and it doesn't cost me anything most times (5/24 ≈ 20%, so 80% of the time it's free).


Your "advice" is not better for anything I play. Laying odds on a DP cannot give an advantage mathematically as, they are zero sum. I want BOTH the DP probability and payout advantage on the outside numbers so will always use a larger DP through pressing up wins over multiple point cycles. This provides lower variance than adding odds which require 2:1 staking.

When I get the gain I insure enough to stay in the game until the dice do what I want without funding from my rack. If I took my win into my rack then I never get a larger bet on the outside numbers with probabilty AND payout advantage.

If you want to win, reduce the number of times you need to fund the bet from your rack, manage the variance and exploit the best bet in the casino which is a large DP on the 4 or 10 paid for by recycling a smaller bet.

 

Thanks twoup for that post, I have referenced your site since. Very good. Are you , have you considered to start a thread ( as not to hijack this one) to open an avenue of discussion? I for one would be interested , NOT from a purely theory point of view as I would put it into real play in a real casino. Thanks

 

Do you mean like a TwoUps corner or craps specific ?

 

More along the lines to discuss your videos, maybe start at first one ( I think it was turn $100 to $1000?) or discussion on the series of videos etc. the commentary is interesting because you actually included a lot of viable non math tips and recommendations, good insight, imho. Perhaps post a video then open it up on the thread for discussion say get a number of questions from the readers then answer them or not. I think it would help craps and non craps player alike. I believe some of the information can cross over to other game players and be a positive benefit in becoming more professional rather just blind betting recreationally and deluding themselves that losing money is “fun”.

Thanks for considering the request. Cheers

 

I'll give it some thought.

Craps is a recreational persuit for me. The building a bankroll series took $100 to $10k, which is equivalent to taking $1k to $100k. I wanted to show that it is possible to grow a bankroll from very humble beginnings and to go through the excercise to develop the discipline with lower value chips. Managing our own demons when things go badly or nowhere at all is a big factor, as well as the "just one more bet" greed factor.

It might be worth a topic of its own.

Cheers!