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Baccarat Sputnik's Notes on Baccarat

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Sputnik, Mar 10, 2020.

  1. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    Note's

    No existing strategy or system or approach performs better than the following solution.
    It does not matter what anyone claims or say, they can never achieve better results in the following.

    The best and optimal way is to reduce the loses to 17% of your placed bets, you will never get lower than that in the long run with statistically significant results (actually placed bets).
    In the short run, you might get variance favoring your placed bets, but that is only temporary.

    Blueprint & Shoe Signatures

    It does not matter if you use patterns or the law of series or any other selection process.
    Everything is the same when calculating the strong and weak waves or hits of any kind of selection.
    The STDV show you the strength and weakness and how the variance unfold.
    Sometimes favoring your selections and sometimes going against your selections no matter what reason you have to bet.

    Cheers
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2020
    asymbacguy and Mako like this.
  2. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    Well that does it. All hope is lost. Guess today is the day I jump from the Empire State Building.
     
  3. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    No worries - you misunderstand the concept - I will show shoe signatures and how to explore them - the reason I made the statement above is that no one can claim to have a better performing way betting - because I can statistically prove that and no one can statistically prove otherwise - everything and all that claims the opposite is just nonsense - but this not mean that we don't can play and win with Baccarat - but no one talks about how to handle loses and manage them in the best way ...

    Cheers
     
    asymbacguy and cps10 like this.
  4. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    Yes I did and I apologize. I look forward to your discussion!
     
  5. Mako

    Mako Active Member

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    Nice Sputnik, how many shoes have you back-tested so far
     
  6. BETJACK

    BETJACK Member

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    :) i follow :)
     
  7. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    Choppy & Streaky Shoe

    Now allow me to define both.
    A choppy shoe is when there are many singles and a series of two, they are dominant and means that the STDV grow stronger favouring them, imbalance, that is one common shoe signature based upon the card shuffle random process.

    The opposite would be a streaky shoe where you get a series of three or higher to strike more then you get singles and series of two.
    Then they are dominant and the STDV grows stronger and favoring series of three or higher, imbalance, that is a common shoe signature based upon card shuffle random process.

    The most common is a mix with both where none of the two reaches 2,5 STDV and stays below hovering around hitting between each other.
    To describe this visually we can say that the shoe will most of the time not stay ahead with twelve figures with less than two or more present events of the underrepresented figure (no matter choppy or streaky shoe signature)

    The situation stays 50/50 no matter if you bet against series of two (follow the choppy signature) or bet with series for two to become larger (follow the streaky signature)
    The STDV stays the same and has the same math and probability calculation as you would be betting against Banker or Player.

    Cheers
     
    asymbacguy and neval like this.

  8. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    Betting with or against Follow The Last - Shoe Signature

    You might hear the expression to aim to catch singles and that they dominate all shoes.
    This is a misunderstanding, there are as many singles as there is series (no matter length).

    So when a punter aims to catch singles you have singles versus series and they can come and go in any direction.
    Most common shoe signature will be a mix of both singles and series within 2,5 STDV.
    This means that either singles or series will get or stay ahead with twelve events without the underrepresented event showing at least two or more times during the shoe.

    I will make it easy for you to follow this topic and keep the correct count and score of the STDV (Z-Score).
    This will make it more simple to follow future examples and shoes that will be posted.

    Here is a Z-Score Excel Sheet with Baccarat Calculation (see attach file) ยจ

    Cheers
     

    Attached Files:

    asymbacguy likes this.
  9. Sputnik

    Sputnik Active Member Founding Member

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    The personal permanence

    This might be the hardest concept to grasp and comprehend.
    Assume you staking a four-level progression to win two in a row within six attempts and you lose your first level with six attempts staking.

    Now you lost the first level of your progression and feel an urgent need to continue staking the next level to break even during that present time.
    You want to solve your situation facing the same shoe and future shoes after that.
    This is a common misunderstanding.

    Now there is no difference if you get back tomorrow and play another whole different shuffled shoe using your second level staking plan.
    I assume you need to read that line again.

    Getting six losses at six different days after each other has the same math and probability as standing at the same table to solve the current situation where you also might face six losses after each other four times.

    Your personal permanence has the same math and probability to give you winning and losing sessions no matter how you cut, divide and split the action between tables, timeframe or different days.
    That is the same thing with the same math and probability standing in front of one table and try to solve the current situation.

    That is why there is no difference between Hit & Run and standing in front of the same table for hours.
    The advantage with the Hit & Run concept is that you only need to have one part of your bankroll with you to the casino and bring the next part next time you visit the casino so break-even or solve a losing sequence with a four level-staking plan.
    So instead of having 50K in cash you only need 2K to cover the first level of the staking.

    Personally I never feel being in my comfort zone having 50K on me when visiting the casino.
    This can be simulated and show with baccarat shoes, this is not theory or fiction, this is straight forward facts.

    Cheers
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2020
    asymbacguy likes this.
  10. BETJACK

    BETJACK Member

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    :) I read every post ... :)
     
  11. Mako

    Mako Active Member

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    Yup. And it's amazing how so many adhere to the opposite opinion, which proves they've never done back-testing on a large amount of shoes.

    If you've back-tested hundreds of shoes with whatever bet selection you think is a winner, then you see very clearly that the daily session length does not matter...at all. How you chop up the entire single batch of results in a 500+ shoe back-test doesn't affect the outcome of the entire batch.

    Hit and Run only serves as a time management function. Meaning lets say you know you'll have a loss every 60 minutes of play on average. If you get to that 60 minute mark and are up, then you'd leave not because you "don't want to give it back to the casino". You'd leave because if you DID lose at the 61st minute, you know you'd need another hour on average to make it up, and you may not want to devote the time for that particular session.

    That's it's benefit, managing your time budget for how long you want to spend at the tables that day...nothing more.
     
    soxfan likes this.
  12. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Testing? What test? With a computer program? They are designed to explore all possibilities and probabilities of outcomes. The result will come out EVEN for all patterns and the HOUSE EDGE will make it -EV game. Just say every hand is RANDOM, INDIVIDUAL and subject to HOUSE EDGE.
    Randomness with Binary outcomes creates Trends and Patterns. It creates volatility and imbalances. That is where the thinking player can take advantage. On paper, you are right but in reality, its possible to have someone bet on the right side more than the wrong side in his lifetime.
     
  13. BETJACK

    BETJACK Member

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    How do you make this kind of bet?
     
  14. MDawg

    MDawg Member

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    Anyone who says Baccarat is completely random hasn't played the game for any length of time. Some shoes follow no patterns, others do. The proof that it is possible to win at Baccarat consistently is = ME. I played Baccarat heavily years ago, and over all won, then got busy with life and took a break from gambling for about a decade. Still went to Vegas regularly, just never gambled.

    Returned to play, both Baccarat and BJ, two years ago, and have not had a losing trip since.

    Even if you do not believe that Baccarat is not random, at least you must accept that whatever outcome will come is set once the cards are shuffled and the shoe set. If you are going to get a shoe that has 22 players in a row in it (I have experienced that - and better), it WILL happen and nothing may alter that outcome. If you are a good player, you WILL win BIG on such a shoe. I have never failed to win big on a streaky shoe.

    Some will say that streaks are all imaginary, that we see what we want to see, that there are no patterns in random events.

    But...the difference between Baccarat and dice, for example, is that IF there is a pattern set in that Baccarat shoe, it WILL come up and repeat because the cards are fixed, set, may not be changed, once placed in the shoe.

    While with dice, there is no set future pattern, as each roll of the dice is a truly independent event.

    A subtle, but substantial difference.

    I have heard of Bacc. players who have a general rule of "I bet whatever hand just won." Well for such a player, if he chances upon a shoe with a twenty-two bank or player run, and also has a general rule of pressing after each win, which many Bacc. players do in fact have these two rules, then every time he comes upon a shoe that has runs in it, he will make a lot, especially if he leaves right after the long run and doesn't keep playing that shoe.

    However, these two rules of "always bet whatever just happened" and "press each time you just won" won't necessarily matter with events where the future is not fixed, like in dice rolls.

    I mean yes, people will come back and say that over time no matter how much you make on runs things will even out over time and you'll give it back trying to bet on runs that never materialize. But, if you play the shoes with a discernible pattern hard and play lightly or simply get up and leave when presented with a random shoe, you might wind up ahead! including over time.

    As far as "hit and run" "money management" those who say this has no effect are again, speaking just in theory. I quit while far ahead over a decade ago, and I quit while ahead for my sessions over the past two years. It all adds up to - big wins.
    https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/the-adventures-of-mdawg.17775/
    So, when will this catch up with me? When will my quitting while ahead fail to benefit me?

    As far as the house edge, the wins and losses at Baccarat have little to do with the house edge. Big players at Bacc. either win a ton or lose a ton per session and the game could have no house edge whatsoever and the end result per session for most players would be the same. The house edge matters more for grinders who do not understand the game of Baccarat, and sit there, say, flat betting on nothing but Bank. For someone who is able to follow the streaks or patterns, presses into the streaks or patterns, and varies his bet greatly, the house edge takes a tiny bit off the top but doesn't affect the end result of a session appreciably.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2020
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  15. neval

    neval New Member

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    You are just superlucky. Luck in baccarat means much more than triggers, patterns and hit and run which are useless.
     
    soxfan likes this.
  16. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    No matter the opinions Sputnik offered a good subject for discussion.


    Enjoy

    ND
     
  17. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    The House beat us with just 2 things. House Edge and a definite Min & Max bet
    It gives us back with something called OPTIONS
    What to bet
    When to bet
    Where to bet
    Bet amount
    Positively
    Negatively
    Learn all you can about Money Management and Bet Selection.This is where FALLACIES comes in. It helps you to make a decision. Chart to find out what is working and use the right method to go in and win some units. I call this SKILL
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2020
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  18. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Luck helps too.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2020
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  19. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    I wish I could peer into the future to know before hands if a shoe gonna be streaky, choppy whatever. I could win 88% of my placed bet if they would only let me bring my quijee board into the joint, hey hey.
     
  20. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    Exactly, this run and hit, quit if yer up a coupla units is bullshits and nonsenses. If ya got an actually winning style of play then it make sense to grin as much as possible cuz yer gonna put so many units profits in yer pockets for each shoe ya gind. And, if you ain't got an actual winning style of play then what difference does it make, hey hey?
     

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