Blackjack Surrender and Save Your Money for Another Battle

You may have heard at blackjack tables: “I will never surrender.” The talk sounds macho, but foolish. The rule of late surrender reduces the house edge by about 0.08% -- a significant reduction considering the house edge is only about 0.5% in ordinary S17 shoe games to begin with. Surrender is one of the very few rule variations that favors players, not the casino.

Take 16 vs. 10 for example. Players’ expected return by standing or hitting is both about -0.54. In other word, a player is expected to lose $54 for every $100 bet. But if the player surrenders, the player loses only $50.

Knowing when to surrender is particularly important to card counters. Taking 8-8 vs.10 at positive true count for example. Hitting or standing on 8-8 is just like hitting or standing on 16, which is unwise as noted earlier. Splitting 8-8 could be even worse, since the dealer may have a 10 in the hole. So, cut the almost inevitable loss by half becomes the smartest move.

 

Most card counters have heard the terms of "Illustrious 18" and "Fabulous 4." Supposedly, they are two sets of the most beneficial deviation indices for card counters to know. But if you ask me which set is more useful, I would say, no doubt, it is "Fabulous 4".

What are the Fabulous 4? They are four surrender indices. In AceMT, they are 0, 1, 1.5, 2 for 15 vs. 10, 15, vs. A, 15 vs. 9 and 14 v 10, respectively.

 

As you mentioned late surrender is worth roughly .08% to the basic strategy player. To a card counter it is worth even more because many times the player is surrendering with his bigger bets out. The numbers I most frequently see is that surrender is worth 2 to 3 times as much to a card counter. That can erase as much as half the initial house edge.

Ken Smith, a highly respected blackjack math guy has stated that late surrender can be worth as much as 10 times as much to a card counter. That would completely flip the initial house edge. I am not sure exactly how Mr. Smith came up with a number so different than others (maybe figuring a monster bet spread), but that 10 times number seems high to me.

When I figure my expected value for any game, which is dependant on initial house advantage and the spread I am using, I count late surrender as +.2% for the player (or .2 off the initial house edge), which is 2.5 times that .08 for a basic strategy player. I think that is a fair compromise.

 

I think Ken Smith's number (10 x 0.08% = 0.8%) is extraordinary -- not realistic for most card counters. Although I don't have a hard number myself, but your assigning of +.2% off the initial house edge for late surrender is very close to my own estimate.

If every thing else is equal, I often consider that H17 with late surrender is a game as good as S17 without surrender. The difference between H17 and S17 in terms of house edge happens to be 0.21%. The availability of surrender in H17 can make up that 0.21% difference.

 

I think Ken Smith's figure (10 x0.08% = 0.8%) is extraordinary -- not realistic for most card counters. I don't have a hard number, but your assigning +0.2% off the initial house edge for late surrender is certainly close to my own estimate.

I often consider H17 with the availability of late surrender is a game as good as S17 without late surrender. The difference in terms of house edge between H17 and S17 happens to be 0.21%. The availability of late surrender can make up that 0.21% difference for card counters, even when it is worth only 0.08% for basic strategy player.