Sports Betting The 4 NFL Preseason Betting Tips You Need To Know by Alex Outhread

The 4 NFL Preseason Betting Tips You Need To Know by Alex Outhread

Week after week in the NFL, from personnel to play calls, we watch teams keep their cards close to their vests. Considering the hundreds of variables in play that affect outcomes, the challenge is to acquire and process as much data as possible to help with our predictions.


1. The Value of Pre-Season Study.

This leads to my first tip: Know the Value of Pre-Season Study.

Studying preseason personnel match-ups and team intentions can be highly reliable predictors, particularly when there is a massive range in talent and experience levels amongst opponents who will likely occupy the field at the same time.

My first experience with the obviousness of preseason outcomes based on opponent personnel inequity was a few years ago when the Giants played the Jets in one of their annual pre-season match-ups. It was the third preseason game of four, and the Jets had a clear and expressed need to give their third string significant playing time. The Giants, on the other hand, had expressed their intention to give their starters and second-teamers more playing time than usual.

What this meant was that the Giants would have an entirely different tier of player on the field when the Jets would play their 3rd and 4th string players. Veterans against undrafted rookies for half of a game with a line set by public perception of each team’s starting lineups? Sugar. Not only did I sell points on the outcome, I went heavy on the second half. Not a drop of sweat.


2. Study Your Favourite Press Conferences.

The second tip naturally follows knowing the value of preseason study. Study the press conferences.

Open up a teams website, listen to both team’s press conferences and coaches interviews before the game. They’ll discuss which personnel they plan on playing in certain situations or certain halves or quarters. They’ll allude to certain types of drives they would like to see, and wha they expect to see from their defense. This is unlike the regular season, as records aren’t permanent and the goal is preparation.

Coaches can be a lot more transparent with the media and in general. Volumes of information straight from the horses mouths are a few clicks away during the preseason. Even if done to merely back up your own inclinations, following through with time spent listening to coaches discuss strategy and personnel during preseason has massive value

Not Using These Early NFL Betting Tips? You Should Be.


3. Looking At The Lines

My third tip is also along the lines of studying. Look at the depth charts at certain positions on the two teams you’re considering wagering upon, and for extra credit, combine this with your press-conference research.

If you know that the Giants have a deep DL, and the Jets have an OL without comparative depth, the advantage will be swallowed up should the Giants discuss their need to watch the third string players and the Jets express the want to see their first and second lines get the majority of the playing time. The flip version is what played out in my example, as the Jets had free-agent rookies all over their defense while the Giants had a veteran offensive presence in much of the second and third quarters.

Knowing which strings are playing matters, but knowing the quality level of each tier will help greatly in predicting how particular match-ups ought to play themselves out. The positions and match-ups to best focus upon for depth and relate playing time are DB/WR and QB, as well as the D-line and O-line.


4. Avoid Futures Wagering

My fourth tip is to take a serious look at ‘futures’ wagering, looking for the best Under W/L line on inflated teams, and the best Over W/L line on under-appreciated teams. I have at least two articles in the 2Bet archives that discuss particular strategies when it comes to betting on futures, but they’re useless if at first you don’t decide to look into the lines for each team to win or lose a certain amount of games.

Public perception is nearly as relevant as a team’s record the year prior when it comes to the formation of these lines. My preferred route is to find teams who addressed the causes for close losses in their off-season. Teams with a considerable amount of close losses don’t get to put asterisks next to their records, losses are losses.

Public perception will be significantly less than the actual quality or potential of that team, particularly if it takes an aggressive stance off-season in addressing team needs. If you wanted to add a third layer, should these teams are in relatively weak divisions, the likelihood of wins is even better. My two leading examples of teams which fulfill all three requirements are the Tennessee Titans and the new York Giants.

The flip side of this is to look at teams who are the apple of the public’s eye, and which perhaps won numerous close games, a number of which through the ineptitude of opponents. Perhaps there are teams like this who also had a lackluster off-season, and reside in divisions that have improved. The Won/Loss lines for these teams will likely be higher than their actual median likelihoods. The one team that leaps out is the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are certainly at the peak of public perception of it’s potential, after a decade of success and a Super Bowl appearance. The fact is the Pats fulfill the rest of the requirements listed above. The division has improved top to bottom (provided the Jets and Ryan Fitzgerald decide to dance), and the Patriots had a lackluster off-season, sacrificing a first round pick during deflate-gate.

Keep an eye on where W/L lines are set for the Patriots, and in part two of my fourth and final tip: Avoid futures wagering on Division, Conference, or League Titles on over-rated teams. The lines will not be favorable as far as the value being worth the risks. You are far better off seeking under-rated teams who put significant energy into improving their organization, which was likely better than it’s record displayed.

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To sum up, the lesson here is to know that there are advantages just waiting for your discerning eye. All you have to do is look into the teams depth and likely match-ups, or finding the right line-in Futures wagering. Take your time, you have over a month to go, but starting your research now will only help you to take advantage of early NFL wagering advantages when the time is right.

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