Baccarat The BIG Question

The BIG Question

Why am I on this forum? And no, that was not the BIG question.

I’m not sure how many people question their own motives for doing something they enjoy. Generally, if one finds something enjoyable introspection is utterly absent. Only when problems arise do we think to ourselves, “Why am I doing this?”

Whether or not you believe me, I had never given it much thought…until now.

Dan Paymar originally asked me to join this forum to help it get going. After I sold off my entire book inventory and closed my website I stopped posting. Then, during my convalescence I got bored in bed and checked up on my old internet haunts. For some odd reason I was attracted to the AP Baccarat forum and NOT the VP. Kinda weird if you think about it. I did not. When I did think about it a few months ago I convinced myself it was because of “been there done that” syndrome and at least in the baccarat forum I might learn something new. While that is true, I now believe that is not the whole story.

Last week someone posted a very negative post on AP baccarat and quoted the math. Instead of feeling vindication or agreement with a fellow mathematician, the post left me feeling hollow. I did not reply and in fact just walked away from the computer forlorn. In retrospect this was odd. The poster had said similar things to what I had said to my own Mother 30 years ago, and I was upset at being agreed with.

This is very hard for me to share and I only came to this realization two days ago, thanks to people criticizing me and questioning my contribution. So, I guess after a fashion, I owe you a debt of gratitude.

Here’s the whole story, you be the judge, and feel free to correct me or add, but please go a little soft this time. This is really tough all. I think this is why I post here.
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Three years ago I went to get my Violin apprised and certified so my beneficiary could sell it in the event of my passing. I knew it was worth a lot, as I had purchased it for $5,000 from a gambler that lost all his money and was desperate to sell right now! Supposedly, it was worth FAR MORE. My Mother brokered the deal.

When the recent appraisal came back it included the original purchase price, which turned out to be only $1,500 and the name of the person that sold it to me was familiar—it was one of my Mother’s baccarat friends.

WTF!

When at the age of 15, I cashed in one of my birth-bonds given to me by Frankie Hale (Dad’s business partner), to purchase the violin I was never told who was selling it. I was merely admonished by my Mother, and my violin teacher, that I needed a good violin for my budding musical career. Now was the time, as a better one at a price this good would not likely come again.

There is only one possible explanation. My mother lied to me and pocketed $3,500 to cover baccarat losses or to get a bankroll.

I’m quite sure she did what she did “for the family”. Had she won money, it all would have ended up being spent on me. Her feelings of not being as good a provider as my father are what clearly drove her to gamble in the first place, following in my father’s footsteps, who had made upwards of $200,000 playing Chemin De Far over his life. Later in life she asked me one day if I resented how poor we were after Dad died. We went from riches to rags overnight. I replied I never really noticed, and I was always happy as long as I had her.

The fact remains: She lied to me and stole money from me to finance her baccarat play. It would not be the only time.

Just before my graduation I was told “the family had run out of money”. The reason she cited is that she wasn’t making as much teaching dance as her hips were hurting her so much she could not teach like she used to.

I left high-school (two weeks before graduation) and got two full-time 8-hours a day jobs to support us. For the first 6-months I rode a bike 30 miles a day to work and back, as we had no car. A day off was a day I only worked one of the two jobs. This delayed my violin career as I had no time to practice anymore.

I did nothing with my checks other than endorse them and hand them to my mother. I assumed she was better at this stuff than I was.

1 year in to this arrangement I was told by someone that they had seen my Mom playing baccarat.

The following week, I caught her at the Barbary Coast, losing the paycheck I had given her that morning. I moved out. We did not speak for almost a year.

My father made a ton of money playing chemin de far. I know several people that have made money playing baccarat. My mother, not so much. She lied to me, and more or less ruined my life over this game, but why?

Since I ended up spending most of my life as Pro-gambler, I know better than most that one can play a good game in your favor and still lose. Hay it’s randomness…results may vary. People lose money in business ventures all the time. If you stick to only sure things you’ll never get far. I can’t fault risk taking as long as the venture has a better chance of wining than losing. I myself made far less as a gambler taking almost only sure thing plays, and avoided risk like drunk in-laws. I’m sure it cost me a lot of money.

Thus, I think my reason for being on this forum is very personal.

I want to know my mother did what she did for a good cause and just had a run of bad luck. I guess I need to know this.

If what my mother did was “for a good cause” it would give me a lot of peace.

So here’s the BIG QUESTION:

Out of the people that WIN playing baccarat, how does one distinguish between luck and skill?

In the event of a win or a loss, how do you rule out simple random chance, as the source of either type of result?

It’s been suggested that secretly I want to disprove AP baccarat play. After a painful bought of introspection it seems I secretly want to prove it. Though that was a secret I kept even from myself until this week.

Any thoughts anyone has would be appreciated. No one likes to think ill of their parents.

Sincerely,

Francis Edward Kneeland

P.S. JoAnna is no longer alive.

 

Lungyeh has already answered you. He uses the skill of deliberately targeting phases of good luck. He even gave it a name. So it takes skill to take advantage of common everyday luck.

 

You're saying it takes skill to take advantage of luck?

If that is what you're saying, this is impossible with my definition of luck. Luck and skill are mutually exclusive. Luck precludes skill, as the word means no skill was involved in your result or whatever happened.

You've totally lost me. I think we talked about this before, I'll have to go back and re-read our previous conversation. I apologize if this is an already trodden path.

Sorry, bad pain day for me. I got a hernia moving to a new house.

 

Great story Frank, keep them coming. I am not a baccarat person but if I had to guess I would say it's probably somewhat like roulette in that there are times you can play and times you shouldn't play because you're not going to win and if you cannot tell those times apart you're screwed. You're going to do too much playing when there's not much chance of you winning. Luckily for me and roulette I can spot the times when I can't play. If Your mother could not spot the times when she should not be playing then she was going to have a very confusing life. It would seem to her like she's at the mercy of luck when she is actually at the mercy of sine wave variance that she could not spot. So she would have desperate times where she would do anything to get money to play because she knew she could win if only her 'luck' would hold. But it wasn't luck at all, it was variance that she could not be aware of. I am only guessing and assuming that baccarat has the same kind of variance that roulette has. Gizmo calls it the Global Effect and I see it all the time. If I can't play on an Evolution platform wheel chances are very good that I won't be able to play on any of the other platforms either. I do not understand how this works but it is a very real thing. And if it is a real thing in baccarat, which I suspect it is, this would frustrate your mother no end because she would not be able to figure out what was going on. Knowing when not to play whatever your favorite casino game is is obviously very important for managing your losses. Anybody can sit down and play, but knowing when to walk away is invaluable.

 

Frank,
First you are not a gambler. Playing while reading a book and getting an hourly wage isn't gambling. You don't understand the effect gambling has on a degenerate gambler.
Second, while you will always love your mom. You have to accept what she did to you and what she was. No its not for any greater good but for the excitement of the turn of the card.
What you've described is a straight up sickness. It's hard to understand with her intellect. But goes to show no one is above it.
We have to move on from our parents. It has nothing to do with baccarat.

 

As strange as this sounds, it is actually true. Whatever the table game, there will be periods when you're winning most every hand and periods when you can't win even one in six hands. It isn't impossible to figure out which phase you are in, and it doesn't always have to do with just the math.

 

The problem is you don't know it's going to happen before you start playing. Too many times you've seen a bad shoe turn into a really good shoe and you missed out if you didn't play. But far too often a bad shoe stays a bad shoe and you're screwed. The only reason I can consistently win at roulette is I can read when the good times and bad times are happening so I know when not to play. For me there is no variance that I have to deal with, only virtual variance and that costs nothing.

 

When I started reading this, the big question for me, was why the Baccarat section?

Sad, but with any gamblers mindset, any justification will do.

yep, hope you stick around too,

Need to face reality, addicted gambler, justified in her own mind, by far not the only victim. Got to admit I skimmed a lot of your posts therefore surprised at some of the recent responses as I haven't paid that much attention to them as others may have. I think you probably need to resolve a few mother vs son issues, as late as it is, maybe this is not the place to do it, however if your outlets are limited, then go for it. Hopefully others can be a more empathic, it takes all sorts.

just 'bout sums it up.

 

Why is that always the first conclusion almost everybody jumps to for every explanation for every situation, the person is an addicted gambler. Case closed.
I don't know that, so you can't possibly know that. She might have been a very good player who had periodic hard times at finding good playing conditions. This does not make her an addicted gambler. I do that, I constantly look for good playing conditions and I am the polar opposite of an addicted gambler. I hate gambling, I go out of my way to avoid it. It's a stupid waste of time and money. But I've been told because I'm always looking for good playing conditions that I'm an addicted gambler. Everybody is an armchair psychologist now.
.

 

The situation if you read the post was taking money not yours but your sons.
The situation if you read the post was lying and misrepresentation for money to gamble with.
The situation if you read the post was creating a situation where your son had to quit school and work two jobs to support your gambling habbit.

Your response above taking up for these actions stating no one can know.... Well Sparky I've did extensive work with addicts of all kinds. And, for your information it more than fits the profile.

The best response was the late Ralphie May on the death of Mitch Hedberg.. Everyone was so sad that he had an addiction and it killed him. Ralphie's response was Mitch didn't want help he liked getting fucked up.

Every addict believe it or not weighs the cost of what they do. What they do is more important to them than the cost. I used to say that when a drug addict hits rock bottom is when they steal from their grand parents on ss. There are some that get a kinda woke up look at that comment. But hardcore addict laugh at it and will even say Yeah I've stolen from mine....

To even think about making an argument to support these behaviors makes me wonder about you. I know your a compulsive internet poster. Now I wonder if your also a compulsive gambler.

 

While I am not exactly like my mother, I think we share a strong genetic correlation especially in our ability to see and take advantage of patterns. I'm almost autistic in my inability to see them...and it frustrates me to no end. So I think you're quite right in your estimation of how this must have confounded her.

I can't believe, I'm only just now dealing with these feelings. I talked to my new roommate this morning and he suggested I should just forgive her. That had actually not occurred to me. I'd been focused on the what of what happened. If I focus on the "why" I think I can indeed forgive her.

My mother only ever did what she did with the best of intentions. That is not in question.

I simply have to accept that she wasn't perfect. Then again, who of is.

He who is without sin cast the first stone...

 

Thank you Porky. I am really trying, and just finally sharing this and talking to all of you has really helped me.

I feel like a great weight has been lifted off my soul.

You are also correct about my never really "getting" the gambler mindset. I treated it like working in a factory at a 9-5 assembly line job with headphones on, always checking the clock to see when my shift was over.

Though I may have made money, I'm a shite gambler.

 

It took me three days to write the OP as I kept tearing up thinking about mom. Today, I've been able to read all the responses with dry eyes.

I would like to apologize to everyone for anything I said in the past before I even understood what I was trying to get out of posting here.

These sorts of self-realization come only in times of stress and they do not come quickly.

ONE OF MY FAVORITE QUOTES:

“There is a greater darkness than the one we fight. It is the darkness of the soul that has lost its way. The war we fight is not against powers and principalities, it is against chaos and despair. Greater than the death of flesh is the death of hope, the death of dreams. Against this peril we can never surrender. The future is all around us, waiting in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future, or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.”
― Book of G'Quan

 

I think the assessment that she was an addicted gambler is a fair one. I think I just didn't want to admit that to myself.

She was so brilliant in so many ways, and kind. We'd go to fancy Palm Beach socialite parties and she'd go around and put-up all the wasted food and have my father deliver it to our house keeper, Vera Vasquez, to distribute in the hood. Wasting food really upset her.

I'd say she treated celebrities and politicians with the same respect she treated the help--but that wouldn't be true. She respected the help a whole lot more. We passed on dinner at the Kennedy's or the Pulitzer's, to have a simple barbecue at Jake Bordelon's house, our house keeper's husband, more than once.

She was a good women. She simply wasn't perfect.

 

You should watch Bobby Flay's first appearance on Iron Chef Japanese. He toned it down after that...

 

I would like that recipe!!!

???

 

--->

• The Christian Institute
• Fisheries scientists

https://anagram-solver.net/ He wh0 is with0ut sin cast the first st0ne... ?partial=true

 

P.S. If you look-up my Dad's movie "The Con Artists Movie" on Amazon with Anthony Quinn the RTC (Rear Title Crawl) is fabrication and simply includes all the people our family considered to be good people or friends. Everyone that worked on the movie had sold their credits for extra cash.

It includes my biological father, my baby sitter, our house keeper + significant other, people from our church, and our neighbor that gave my mother her famous pepper chicken recipe.

I saw this movie for the first time since childhood six months ago and fell off my chair when reading the titles. My pediatrician's daughter I had a crush on is listed

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0076101/

P.P.S: Dad got Corinne Clery to baby-sit me...

 

I could be wrong but my recollection is Sigmund Freud said the definition of neurosis is believing that our experiences are unique unto ourselves.

So as far as the special gift that you say you and your mother have or had consider that it's one thing to see a pattern it's another to predict them. So unless your mother had and yourself have some kind of other malady or compulsion that causes self-destruction seeing patterns would surely provide much success.

Are you being clear minded when assessing your own ability? My opinion is that you are very possibly still going down the path of self-delusion and as JK suggested your problem may be that you are a compulsive gambler.
*************
As parents we all fail. Some fail more than others. Some fail even more tragically than yours. But I think we all have to come to the understanding that our parents did the best they could. Yes that's right. No matter how awful they were or how sick. They weren't capable of doing any better. When we realize that we cease to become victims.

I wish you speedy success in your journey!

J

 

If only this were true which it obviously is not. Some parents do the best they can, some parents do even better than that. But way too many parents do what's best for themselves and not what's best for their kids. Many parents put very little effort into parenting at all. They push the responsibility off on anything they can to make their parenting duties as light as possible. If only every parent did the best they could this will be a much better world, but too often the opposite of that is true.