Baccarat The Kelly Style For Baccarats!

I'm gonna preface this posting by saying that the Kelly style staking plan only works IF ya got a style what is already the bets flats winner! I'll keep the number simple so cats don't bust my ballz and fight me on the ratio. So, you multiply yer entire bankroll by X.00444! So, say yer startin banks-roll is 5000$ so multiply that by .00444 and that'll give ya 22.2, so round down to 22$ and that is yer initial Kelly wagers size. So, that'll give ya 225 units banks-roll to start and for me that should be sufficient for a style what is the bets flat winner outta the box. OK, let's say a cat go on the nice roll and run his roll up to 6000$. So again, you re-size by mulitply the 6000$X.00444 gonna give you 26.64 so round up yer gonna 222 units and round down to 26 yer gonna get 230 units, yer choice. Now, let's say a cat get clippped because some of us deal with realities. So, a cat see his roll drop to 4000$ so again multiply by .00444 give ya 17.76 so round up to 18$ or just go with 17$ and that's yer Kelly units wager size. So, hope cats can see the power of the Kelly style stakings plan as it give ya downside protection as yer always gonna have around 225 units, even at a lower wagers size. And best of all the Kelly style gonna give ya unlimited upside potentials, hey hey.

 

A lot of the AP players use a 'Half Kelly' It reduces the bankroll volatility by 50%, but growth by only 25%.

It's certainly worth considering, but how many folk genuinely have an edge at baccarat without using some of the AP techniques. (By the way, I am not saying it can't be done)

 

Thank you, Soxfan for this. Your absolutely right!! This makes Kelly simple. Works very well with Sports Betting as well.

 

Finally soxfan posts something worthwhile!

It also works well with partnerships using the cumulative bankroll. Flat bet only? Nope. You'll need a bigger bank with a progression. How much depends on the progression of course.

 

Thinking more about this. Right, you have to kind of guess at your edge. For certain the ratios are more efficient. But the ratios for even a good progression like Chingy, for instance, will reduce bets automatically while locking up small profits.

One problem with progressions is that table minimums lock you into making higher bets than even a conservative fractional kelly would suggest. Chingy solves that problem if you are allowed to place the proper percentages as outlined.

At the same time chingy is not robust enough after a series of losses. You can go back to the first stage which is probably too low to recoup. So a lot of progressions will incorporate a half back or quarter back bet for recoup. STAR tries to do this. TURNAROUND as well.

You could probably use kelly as a guide to develop your own fixed progression without too much trouble.

I use a progression similar to Chngy. And then as a recoup i've been experimenting with a modified Turnaround at a certain loss level. The idea is not to bet too big or too small if you're recouping.

Another problem which I have and I think other people have too is not increasing my base bet after accumulating a certain amount of profits. I tend to stay at the same level when my overall profits justify larger bets. With kelly this is automatic.

Cheers

 

@Jimske i don’t think I’ve ever seen anything on TURNAROUND.

When I was working with the Chingy progression, if I had a couple of winning runs, I would move up a couple of levels like I was trying to recover. That would be a way to solve that problem for you. But….a lot of times I’m like you. I expect the bad run to come just when I raise my base bet haha

 

LOL I don't expect a bad run to come when I raise my bet. If I lose the raised bet I just stay in the same progression. What I meant to say is after say doubling my bankroll I tend to just stay where I was and use winnings for expenses!!!! Hahaha. I guess it's my comfort level.

 

Nothing wrong with that!!

 

To be fair I've called ya a bit of a cunt in the past. Just want to say thanks bud, I understand. Apologies for the past, was uninformed by somebody uninformed before I learnt me.

 

Kelly is nice but why not going with betting simply a half percent of your bankroll period, so for 5000 $ just play 25 $ chips . nice round number.
But the idea of Kelly is sound but doing it and sticking to it is the difficult part, yet probably the most safe way to go. That requires the player to become more like a " investor " then a gambler.
Who is willing to stick to it really ?
Maybe that in itself IS the HG ?
Not chasing systems and all the new ideas that show up in forums but Becoming The Player/investor.
God Bless