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Baccarat The Van Kelen Test - Baccarat

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Sputnik, Mar 26, 2024.

  1. Zen1th

    Zen1th New Member

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    Canada
    Thank you for your guidance! Today, I feel I may have got a VERY bad luck since the start of the game. During my whole 600 bet gameplay, only ONCE I was 12 units away from TIE, it was somewhere around 150-200 bets mark.. Since then I was in a downward spiral, I decided to cut my losses at -40 units.

    Do you happen to know any good stop loss points with this strategy?

    Also, I look forward to seeing your Holloway progression strategy. I want to do another test run with 600 bets.
     
  2. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I stated when you are down -12 is almost the and the downswing drift with the same negative results as an 3+ STDV you can not continue flat betting - but when there is an marathon you have the bell curve and the pendulum effect that kicks in and can manage an -12 unit swing with no furhter action and continue flat betting as 3+ series will come and go in chunks

    So i am very sorry to here that you reach -40 and i would never continue betting with susch negative results - do you save the results and can share with us all - as i never reach -40 with this method.
    That way we can take an closer look at the statistics.

    So this is my advice as i stated in the begining - if you reach 3+ STDV and are in the negative you need an smooth conservattive progression to recoup - if not the swings can drift into the negative in longer perionds and you have no way back.
    So the solution is REVERSALS with some degree of help with conservative progression.

    So avoid the Ching A Ling effect to stay the whole day in the casino only to recovery session.
    I recommend using Holloway from the beginning and quit after +1 unit and restar or go home.

    That way you will at some rare days hit a 3+ STDV direct on the spot when entering an table and then if you use the Holloway from begining solve the 3+ STDV situation within 1 to 2 hours play and not 8 hours.

    Cheers
     
  3. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Should also make clear that a 3+ STDV can come in two different shapes - one rapid and one with longer stretch over time
    This means that the singles can smootly drift and slowly come in chunks and make your flat betting slowly drift into the negative with no correction before much later and deeper into the sample size you are playing

    When there is simulations and testing you have no end and stop limits - important to know this - because of the following

    This will make the Van Kellen Test Fail

    When singles stay ahead at all times for an 300 trails sample with very strong underrpresented situations for 3+ series
    That means that the ECART slowly grow stronger in a smooth way for a whole 300 sample size

    Here no progression will help and you can not succed flat betting in sush situations

    So the conclusion of this reflection is that you might skip the Holloway progression and try to develop an stop loss and win target

    Cheers
     
  4. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Active Member

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    ok. i will check results with the hollow man. Is with sports also maximum bet for you 5 units and moving back 2 steps only after 3 win streak?
     
  5. Solid_gambler

    Solid_gambler New Member

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    Looking forward to your explanation using Holloway. Thanks Sputnik for your help!
     
  6. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Here is another option with some trending element using cycles of seven

    You enter a shoe or table then wait for the first 3+ to show and when it ends start betting
    Take a win or an TIE - take the one that comes first - start over

    This give more control over the flat betting process and comfort zone for decison making when to take a loss

    When getting seven singles, stop and take a -7 or less in loss or continue and aim for an TIE or later take another seven singles and around -12 loss - that is cycle based

    Do this in-play
    When losing seven, wait of a series of three, observe if it become 3 or 4 or 5 and wait until series end and start over with next cycle
    This give you control over -7 loss for each cycle and you are free to test flat betting options with win targets and stop loss or apply any conservative staking plan that suits you

    Cheers
     
  7. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Active Member

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    one thing more do you increase to 2 bet only if your minus 5 total, because sometimes there is chop on the third 1 unit so if you count everytime new you get to 2 units more quicker then waiting til minus 5
     

  8. Zen1th

    Zen1th New Member

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    I will test with new strategy, as I think conservative betting process is a must.
    When entering table, always wait 3 in a row before betting. Instantly cut losses at 7 singles.

    I thinking that if yesterday I've used Holloway with my -40 loss I could have easily went into heavy negative with my bankroll and probably still lost.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2024
  9. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Well either you solve the solution or not when using Holloway - you don't quit in the middle and blaim the strategy or Holloway
    Is would be the say that if i Lay Under 3.5 goals and there is 86 minutes towards the end and 3 goals has been scored and i am afraid one more goal is going to score and that i lose the bet - so i cash out with reduced loss - but there was no furhter goals and the bet was Set & Forget - not an trading strategi - do you see the difference - no wounder you end up with -40 stoping in the early middle of the Holloway.

    I suggest you flat betting and take a loss or a win and skip Holloway as it don't suits your mentality.
    And also my warning that one sample size of 300 trails can be ahead all the time with singles as overrepresented - then Hollowy bust.

    But using trigger that you mention is a good idea - i test this with 4 singles or above and wait for a fictive win with a series of three.
    Bet it will become 5 and restart - if not and 4 or 3 continue for the next four bets and if a loss wait for fictive win again and repat the formula
    4 versus 1 and 4 verus 1 and 4 more is 2,5 STDV and happens around 1% and 3+ STDV 0,5%

    So 4+ fictive win 4+ fictive win 4+ fictive win

    A hybrid betwen treding and using trigger and limiting your self to 8 bets window so winnings or ties or take -8 unit loss.
    Drift in the middle and make the decisions when to hold and when to fold.

    Cheers
     
  10. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    The Holloway progression is suitable for 2:1 bets, drop back 2 positions on a hit or keep marching forward until profit is achieved, pick your poison:

    1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,16,18,20,22,25,28,30,32,35,40,45,50,55,60,70,80,90,100,110,120,135,150

    You can cut and divide in any formation and adapt to attacking levels 4, 6, 7 or any
    For example

    1111122
    2233344
    556789,10

    It would become similar to Ching A Ling staking who won 30.000 during one year

    Experiment and search and develop and make your thing work for you - I estimate around 1300£ for bankroll or units to cover the whole progression.
    Made a short test with 7 and reached the highest level 1 and highest unit size 2 units for 300 placed bets - and +10 units and lowest was 3 units.
    With a house edge of 1.35% that would be similar to betting player side only.

    EDIT you might try to stay at one level to solve the situation or use it on a rolling basis as a pendulum effect as raise and fall - I test the first option.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2024 at 8:16 AM

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