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Baccarat The way Baccarat should be approached

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Craps, May 9, 2019.

  1. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    When you play Baccarat there are 2 worlds that you have to be in. The real world or the Baccarat world. The real world is about Math. Every hand is random and individual and one have to deal with commission. If you stay in the real world, you will play right into the wrath of the Casinos. If you flat bet, you need to win more than 50% of your bets. You get grinded away and that is what the Casinos is hoping for. You are most likely to go against trends because you don't believe there are trends in the real world. You will not stop for a break while losing because in the real world every hand is random and individual.

    Whereas in the Baccarat world there are full of fallacies. There are trends. ( actually random creates trends ). There are overdues. There are patterns. Although these are not REAL but hey, what harm can they bring? If you follow trends, you can win as much as the trend permits you. The worse is you only lose one bet. The problem is people kept looking at hands and patterns that cause them to lose and STILL they are looking at them later on in the shoe. After a loss people will try to "manufacture" a trend by looking at previous hands.

    Remember "DID NOT WIN is BETTER TO LOSE" so, don't manufacture trends. When trends comes , they are obvious.
     
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  2. Junket King

    Junket King Active Member

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    This part was good

    Whereas in the Baccarat world there are full of fallacies. There are trends. ( actually random creates trends ). There are overdues. There are patterns. Although these are not REAL but hey, what harm can they bring? If you follow trends, you can win as much as the trend permits you. The worse is you only lose one bet. The problem is people kept looking at hands and patterns that cause them to lose and STILL they are looking at them later on in the shoe. After a loss people will try to "manufacture" a trend by looking at previous hands.

    Remember "DID NOT WIN is BETTER TO LOSE" so, don't manufacture trends. When trends comes , they are obvious.[/QUOTE]

    This is a fallacy.

    For trend players, do tell, how many hands constitutes a trend??

    I've asked this over and over, nobody is willing to answer!!

    2 by 2 by 2 by 2 is a trend, when did you notice them? When did you make your move?

    Chops are a trend, streaks are a trend. How many hands are shown before you say "oh there is a trend" I will follow?

    Take any number of hands that constitutes a trend, 'any', then take a set of binary tables, you will soon notice that there are more ways for 'any' trend to NOT continue, than to continue, or did you only make a single independent non-correlated 50-50 bet? Unless you are physic and were on the trend after the first hand.
     
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  3. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    This is a fallacy.

    For trend players, do tell, how many hands constitutes a trend??

    I've asked this over and over, nobody is willing to answer!!

    2 by 2 by 2 by 2 is a trend, when did you notice them? When did you make your move?

    Chops are a trend, streaks are a trend. How many hands are shown before you say "oh there is a trend" I will follow?

    Take any number of hands that constitutes a trend, 'any', then take a set of binary tables, you will soon notice that there are more ways for 'any' trend to NOT continue, than to continue, or did you only make a single independent non-correlated 50-50 bet? Unless you are physic and were on the trend after the first hand.[/QUOTE]


    There is no definite answer when you think a trend is happening. There should be executed with a little bit of anticipation. Ever notice those who got on the trend early are the biggest winners. They will bet until they lose a hand whereas those who were late will just flat bet. Many will remain on the sidelines cos ' they did not get in earlier in the trend.
    Its all in the charting. Charting is skill. There are infinite ways to chart and being able to notice what is working for a particular shoe is SKILL.
     
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  4. Junket King

    Junket King Active Member

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    No definite answer!!!! Hmmmm, so it's all guess work, win some and lose some?

    Yet you mention "early trend", or do you mean luck? People can get lucky on occasions, but it won't make them long term winners.

    I know all about charting, I call them templates, I've recorded shoes using 1 template, 7 or 8 column and tracked (charted) 3 other templates within the column of 7 or 8. Even now, I use columns of 7, but still use a columns of 6 inside the column of 7 by merely using underlines. Yes I also play rows and columns.

    I totally disagree about trending via columns, most Chinese players use the Bead road and follow a consecutive row of Banks for example. The problem with that way of thinking, is that once you notice something, such as,

    XXXXXXX
    BBBBBB < jump on the Bank
    XXXXXX
    XXXXXX
    XXXXXX
    XXXXXX

    it is less likely to continue and I state based on considerable experience. Sure it can happen that Row 2 continues spewing out B until the end of the shoe, but IMO it won't, but there exists smarter ways to play.

    Take it easy, no malice intended.
     
  5. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Actually that's an easy one. Anything that happens twice is a trend. So could be as simple as a few decisions or many decisions. Could be side independent or both sides. There's lots to look at. There's only 2 things that can happen when you bet a trend; you win or lose. But betting and MM going to be key just as in more static games.

    J
     
  6. Junket King

    Junket King Active Member

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    In over 10 years of asking that question, you are the first to offer an answer, well done, not that I agree necessarily.
     
  7. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Acute question where I'm giving another question to every simple "trend" lover.
    Per every shoe dealt, how many exploitable trends are you going to get as opposed as to "not exploitable" trends?
    And what about the level of "winning" potential for every so called exploitable trend?

    Whether the answer will be an odd number or an even number greater than 2 you'll be in a fair/good shape, otherwise you are destined to lose.

    as.
     

  8. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Unlike many "math experts" keep stating, any single bac hand is either a perfect 50/50 proposition or a huge shifted proposition.
    The long run fkng averaging force shouldn't bother us at all.

    as.
     
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  9. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    A trend can be any things but they all stem from past events. So first we got to decide what that event is and then we can decide whether it is exploitable or not. E.g. two repeats IAR. Any length or the same length - two distinct "trends" but they're only a trend when it occurs again. Thus from past events. One may say that even Junket King's math based columns are not dissimilar to a trend.

    So, assymbac, aren't you and Sputnik doing the same thing? Looking at past events and measuring how often said "trend" repeats more than not to get an exploitable edge? Anyway, assymbac, why not answer your own question?
     
  10. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    One part of the answer is that many shoes aren't playable at all.

    It's like gold prospecting.
    It's far more likely to find gold or other precious metals whether in the same area something similar was already discovered, even if sometimes there's nothing left worth of it.

    as.
     
  11. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    What's the other part? I suppose every shoe is playable but if one is looking for something specific and it doesn't show then it could be deemed unplayable. Maybe you could provide a real shoe example?[/QUOTE]

    It's like gold prospecting.
    It's far more likely to find gold or other precious metals whether in the same area something similar was already discovered, even if sometimes there's nothing left worth of it.

    as.[/QUOTE]LOL. I liked Glen's lawnmower analogy better! Neither of them make much sense. In debate circles this might be considered a "red herring." To expand the analogy; the problem is that each shoe is like a new mine and we don't know whether anything was found there in the past or not.
     
  12. Junket King

    Junket King Active Member

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    All shoes are playable in hindsight, whether it should have been OLD or DBL or the most obvious FLD.

    BB PP BB PP BB, follow them if you wish, but in reality there is no need to change, FLD or OLD both bring home the bacon.

    Chops, interspersed with the occasional streak of 3 or 4, then DBL.

    Triggering off the 2nd line hole gap, FLD.

    Unfortunately there is no such thing as effective Crystal Balls, which is why it is all a load of Hocus Pocus nonsense.

    I dabbled with testing an esoteric bet option last night, it returned a 67.5% success rate, yes sixty seven point five percent (no bullshit, I did pass it on to somebody else)..... I only tested approx 21 shoes, it is not worthy of more testing, because IMO the method is unplayable, therefore didn't bother, but it does go to proving a point.

    Fking probability maths!!!
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2019
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  13. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    OLD, DBL, FLD, better LAS or HKG.
    And of course LOL.

    as.
     
  14. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    You should read how different Virginia City Comstock lodes were found.
    Digging in the soil is a finite process as well as any shoe is a finite process.
    Notice how and where many shafts and tunnels were made after the first lode was found. And how many crossed the lodes.
    In some way a clustering effect of certain degree was happening.

    I know it's quite unusual for a sailor to grasp underneath issues even if the fact that your spinnaker is asymmetrical would help you.

    as.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2019

  15. Junket King

    Junket King Active Member

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    So you're a casino hustler, little risk to you, the amount others bet has no impact when it's not your money (what happened to your money)?

    Have to admit I met a few hustlers in casinos, one became my regular lacky (goffer) I tipped well, also dropped him off at home. But in the end, he was just a snake, who constantly chatted shite.
     
  16. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I suppose you liken yourself to George Hearst, running around the casino when you hear word of a "good strike?" that's the way old George did it. Hit and miss. LOL

    But the Comstock Lode was not in Virginia City. - Utah, actually.
     
  17. Junket King

    Junket King Active Member

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    I struggle to understand how so much arrogance can permutate from a vassal so empty.

    Reminds me of a fella I've seen floating around the casino in Adelaide since 2004. Known as the Silver Fox due to the colour of his hair. Never shared a table with him, but we have let on for over 15 years, seems nice enough. But at one stage him and his mate got into a stupid rivalry with me and a hustler friend, who played the better game. . I was on my best ever runs and you could literally feel the jealousy, checking out every single move I made. When a shoe produced long series of chops like 7 of them, we carried on betting FLD. Through rather clever MM, me and a another friend I won 34 sessions on the bounce.

    Wind the clock forward a few years, I stopped and started talking to the Silver Fox, like a say, I've seen this guy for over over 15 years, he knows me I know him. One of the first things he tired to tell me, is that the Angel Shuffle machines can re-arrange the cards waiting to be dealt inside the shoe, yes, that had my alarm bells ringing.

    He then proceeds to tell me, he is a better a player than all of the players who were sitting at multiple tables at the time. So I outright asked him, "how much do you have". He replied "nothing, but it's only temporary". That kinda summed it up.

    There are many 'nice' friendly people in casinos', the level of disillusionment is staggering. I think you would have to be in some nut-house to find such levels of irrational belief. The Silver Fox certainly isn't the only one, lots of nice genuine people, but if you talk game, they are off the Richter scale...


    I can honestly say I know many people from the tables, have shared lots of banter, camaraderie. Never, have I left the table to discuss tactics for an hour with any one of these players. What they do and how they play and what I do and how I play is our own business, even close friends when playing together, there has been no need to for a 1 hour pow-wow on how we are going to proceed. Nor if players at a table have achieved a big win and emptied the chip tray, do I try and claim I shared in the substantial the profit taken.

    Yes, for those that read it, glenda aka alrelax the schizophrenic, was recently trying to claim to be part a bunch of people that won $200,000 from some mid-west casino. If $200,000 was taken from the chip tray, no doubt less than 3% would have been in glenda's pocket. Yet he claims he shared it. Utter disillusionment, a typical case of the game of Baccarat literally owning them.

    The game has literally destroyed them of all potential wealth since 1979, so it might as well own them mentally as well, Lock stock and barrel. Mentally deranged, similar to many of the others you might have the misfortune to engage in conversation at the casino.
     
  18. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Actually when I'm mentoring those HS players I'm really more interested to win than if I were to wager my own money.
    One single wrong session and I'll lose the customer and everything.
    Main problem is that those HS players do not want to miss the luxury comps treatment they are entitled to, thus we must bet a lot of hands obviously lowering our profits.
    Moreover, it's quite difficult to ask for many free hands without betting and HS pits feature a nauseating low speed.
    Finally, every bac player must be perceived as an idiot, casino hosts want to deal with losing players.

    @jimskie: believe me, try to google it, Comstock Lode was in Virginia City, NV.

    as.
     
  19. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    You can't make more using your own money? Or maybe you're afraid to get the gavel if you play?

    P.S. Don't have to google it cause I already know I was correct. But I'll give you some slack since it is in the present day Nevada which didn't exist at the time. So if you're playing Jeopardy, Utah or Utah Territory would be the correct answer. I'm a big fan of the Old West having made half a dozen road trips throughout the US (Canada and Baha as well). I guess it's because that's where my roots lie - early 19th century westward expansion ending in the dust bowl, settling in California. How my immediate family got to the East Coast another story!

    It's an interesting story though (a bit more interesting than this site I may add). You might like the 1850 Compromise and its effort to diffuse the slavery problem. As well as Goodwins "Team of Rivals."
     
  20. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Touché

    You are right, at present Virginia City is in Nevada once Utah Territory.
    And good to know you are an Old West aficionado too!

    Yes, I'll make way more money getting a cut from huge bettors than playing my own money, but I cannot afford to get a single losing session, a factor that helped me to find more selective profitable situations than whether I would strictly play for myself.
    Such players like to bet the same or almost the same huge sums everytime, they don't like any escalating wagering.
    In a word I have to get more winning situations than losing ones. That is a flat betting strategy.

    as.
     
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