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Baccarat To be a professional Baccarat gambler.

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Craps, Jun 13, 2019 at 7:37 AM.

  1. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    First of all the word gambler should be replaced by the word "job". You are working to make a living by playing Baccarat and NOT to gamble to strike it rich. And then there are these dirty money be washed to clean money by some "high rollers" of the game.
    As a pro you have to accept that the game can't be beaten. Its negative EV. So don't even think of coming out with a fixed system to beat the house. ACCEPT LOSSES.
    A pro can't control the outcome of one hand. A pro can't control a losing shoe. A pro can't control a losing day. A pro can't control a losing week. A pro can't control a losing month. But a pro should be able to control a losing quarter. A pro should be ahead after 6 months.

    Be alert, mistake free, losing control and discipline is the biggest factor that determine whether you should go pro. Its easy said then done. Example: you won $1400 in 7 days. i.e $200 a day. On the 8th day you lost $2000. That's -$600. What do you do on the 9th day? Can you go back to win $200?

    A pro should swear by his/her plan right from the start. The biggest ingredient in the plan is Can You Win Back Your Losses doing the same thing during those losses? if you can, then you can call yourself a pro. If you deviate after those losses, then you are just another gambler.

    In my humble opinion a pro should take care of the things that he can control and NOT trying to control the things that he cannot control. The money part should be a progression. Bet progression allows the pro to win with probability although the odds stays. It also goes inline with Human nature that is " chase your losses" The thing that a pro can't control is bet selection. So so many people wasted endless time and effort on bet selection. In the real world bet outcome is RANDOM. Every hand is individual. But in order for us to make a bet selection, we have to live in the Baccarat World. We have to believe in fallacies. It does helps us to determine when and what to bet. Charting and Triggers should determine bet selection.

    Win in the dark. Chart and more chart and go in and "Hit and Run" If you lose, quit. This type of play gives you longevity. Fortunately Casino now offers Stadium Style Baccarat. These games are usually low limit. It gives those hit and run players more shoes to chart.Now its more like hit and wait.

    Be more realistic. WIN 20% of your Bankroll and keep only 25% of it. Prepare to lose back that 75%.

    So you see fellow Baccarat enthusiast. In order to replace your job, you need to be a $100 unit player. Anything lower than that, KEEP YOUR PRESENT JOB.
     
  2. brokercny

    brokercny Member

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    as a $100 unit player, you would only need 2 net winners a day to live a normal comfortable life.
     
  3. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Realistically a pro who uses bet progression can only win a net 2-3 units a day. There will be long streaks of win but when the losses come, it will cancel off most of them FYI I am currently up 15 x my daily bankroll of $1000 after 10 months. My unit bet is $30 with a 5 step Martingale. That's only $15 k in 10 months. Can't replace my daily job yet.
     
  4. porky

    porky New Member

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    HI Craps. Realistically every person at a car accident will have a differing account. Some will go as far as adamantly stating who is at fault even though all the physical evidence shows differently. When it comes to Bac it can be beaten several ways. The thing is how you play and how it fits your personality. Can it be beaten with no more than a one two progression? Can it be beaten getting just a couple of units here and there. you say it needs a progression. NOPE! Yes there are people power stacking for or against bank and making fortunes. The same going broke. Others grind the game for a profit.. I think back to the movie grinders. I like to think of myself as the guy he confronted for never going for it. He said something like I got kids, bills, alimony, and his list went on. As for think of it as a job... Every day is Saturday!
     
  5. porky

    porky New Member

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    Sorry about my post the movie was Rounders. I think that everyone that gambles should watch that movie even though it is about poker. It pretty much covers different mindsets. You could say I have grinding on the brain.....
     
  6. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    That's why we need this forum for this kind of topic. It's healthy to pitch in what you see that I don't. I did try to grind but the wins are not as consistent as a fixed progression. I can play lesser hands. It's a very business like procedure and it develops a winning habit.
    In your post you said some people grind. When you are away from the table you will see the game differently and everything makes sense. But when you are playing, the grind that you describe, is actually an ununiform progression. Many people claimed they grind BUT it's actually one or two crucial big bets that they make that went through. NO ONE beats the game by just FLAT BETTING in the long run. There are too many decisions that needs to be made if you grind like what you describe. Can you control your emotions when you are losing? Simplify things can be successful too.
     
  7. porky

    porky New Member

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    Some people believe bet selection is the same and makes no difference.... I don't... I don't see the value in running shoes through a computer simulation either. The truth tables that have been repeatedly posted over the years are true... You just don't know how they will play out... But shoes will generally play into certain patterns even if you don't see them without tracking.... will they run the whole shoe....not generally....but they will hold long enough for to grab some units..... I never bet more than two....and it is a progression on a loss maybe not immediately .... I might miss 1 and 1 then try 2 in a little bit. Years ago a guy that talked crazy on the forums touted he used a negative/positive progression and everybody gave him a rash of crap. If your bet selection is half way decent a 1-2-4 negative or running it positive if you hit the first bet 1-2-3 or 4 on the last one and you can kill a shoe...… but even though a lot of posters didn't like the term an old guy from texas use to tell everybody to nibble at the cheese....DON'T GET YOUR HEAD CAUGHT IN THE TRAP!!!!!!! but that fits my style of play...could I stay longer yeah...but I like being done early.
     

  8. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    This is getting very interesting. What is important is one has to get to the winning side in the long run. By how much and size does not matter. I kept preaching the Real world and the Baccarat world. In the real world Math is ultimate, Its makes the game unbeatable. But the big argument here is those Math findings is based on the Law of averages as the main criteria. So, then if we use Probability, it will be too much for Math to overcome ALTHOUGH THE ODDS STAYED THE SAME. If you make a bet, it is 50/50. If you make the next bet it is 50/50 too . It's not uncommon to lose 5 or more in a row. But if you pre determine 5 bets and for you to lose all of them, its only 3.01%. You have a 96.9% of winning. That is not going to happen too often. I am not changing the odds here. I am pointing out the ease of reaching your goal using probability. But if you grind like you described, you will have to win more than losing and that is very though in the long run IMO. But a lot of people misused the 5 step Martingle. They play too many hands. They use templates. They don't chart extensively. They want action.
    Again I am not interested in short term happenings. I am talking Professional Successful long term playing.
     
  9. porky

    porky New Member

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    As a dealer how many times do you see a follow shoe...Player hits a few then Banker hits a few? Now you can't depend on that long term... Why not? it happens? Now what if your tracking with patterns according what fit the tables... Example the terrible twos ppbbppbbppbb tracking for this p hits p misses b misses b hits p hits its not following the pattern exclusive but when it hit it hit again, when it missed it missed again, start playing it to miss after a miss or hit after a hit. Or what if it only matched the pattern sporadically singling every once in a while mmmhmhmm now I would play against that pattern. These highlights for patterns happen EVERY shoe. Do I hit them all...NO I'm not saying that... Does it work enough....YEP... Fifty percent of all decisions are singles, twenty five percent are twos, and so on. Patterns based on chaos can really suck. Play them to suck. If they go crazy play them that way to. And by the way if when tracking ppbbppbb you also tracked pbbppbbppbb staggering the start you will get completely different results. You may be able to play one and not the other. mmmm food for thought.... staggering singles same results pbpb bpbp just opposite. All other patterns can be staggered and will come out different. Figure the ones you like... or combination of one or two patterns and look at how they track.... You can build your own system this way....Now is this the only way to play...NOPE....A poster I got a lot out of over the years does not play this way and he would tell you its shite. I see it and do not have the patience or the nerve to play how he does.. I will say I'm getting better at ignoring the dealer, the cards, and only looking at which side won when the smoke clears.... I hear an imaginary voice in my head I like to think of as him going "the cards mean nothing, there is no such thing as a bad beat, no drama." Funny thing is he's like my yoda and we have never met and probably never will.
     
  10. brokercny

    brokercny Member

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    craps, you're up $14k in profit, why are you still using $30 units. with my system, if i was up $14k in profit, my units would be around $100-$150.
     
  11. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    If you were to give a completed shoe to anybody, they will tell you they will do this and that to win. During the course of a shoe, nobody knows how it will play out. You might see one thing and missed another.
    We are not analyzing bet selection here. I totally do not believe one can excel in bet selection to the point that they can win above 50% in the long run. Anyway believing in fallacies do help one make decisions of what to bet.
    I do not look at B or P I make bets base on follow or against a 5 hand outcome. I let the Martingale win for me. I do believe one thing which is rather perculier If you bet PPPPP non stop you most likely to lose when B gets hot. But if you bet selectively with PPPPP you can actually make some small wins in the long run. Why? The odds are the same. Therefore, I tip my hat to those pros who wins by concentrating on bet selection.
     
  12. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    To me winning 2-3 units net a day in the long run is GRINDING for profit. I only pocket 25% of my winnings as guaranteed profit. The other 75%, I am preparing to lose it back. This is a more realistic way of thinking. Anyway I am still trying to find out why I am winning. It can't be luck because I do lose quite a number of times but was able to win it back. It got to be the 5 step Martingale along with the Hit and Run. Extensive charting which only allows me to bet sparingly. 10 months of winning won't make me crazy enough to go to $100 unit bet yet.
     
  13. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Interesting thread. Good discussion.

    porky, 25% of decisions are singles, not 50%. 18 singles per shoe times 4 = 72 non-tie hands. But. . . 50% of decisions are what I call "alternates." ppp B p B ppp gives us 3 singles but 4 alternates or chops. See it? Considering alternates could be helpful in bet selection.

    I've been using a martingale as part of my tool box since Junket King brought it up. But I use it sparingly in situations where I deem appropriate. Generally they are mid to later shoe after a run on one side or other has only gone 3 or 4. Then I'll decide a risk level based on win/loss of that session to date for MM purposes. And nothing is written in stone so a caution flag goes up if I lose the 1st bet and that happens to be what Gr8 calls a "breakout." Reason is I am worried this may be the time it goes 10 IAR or something! An alternative is to wait for the next repeat of 3 or 4 and pick up the Martingale there. Got to figure the odds of getting 4 goes 5+ IAR four times got to be a little better I our favor, right? Just a thought.

    IMO, betting way more important than bet placement. So far I haven't seen any placement that significantly increases our odds of winning.

    J
     
  14. brokercny

    brokercny Member

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    craps, i see your point. in my case, even though my strategy is still fairly new, me and my mentor are confident in it. im only starting out with a limited bankroll of less than 1k and have limited times available for the casino. i have to use a 6 step martingale to be very safe. i can make about 5-9 units each shoe. if i use a 5 step marty, there will be far less betting opportunities, sometimes none in a shoe and sometimes only like 2 or 3 plays. if i can build my bankroll to around 5k, im pretty confident i have a winning strategy.
     

  15. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    You hit the nail right on the spot i.e. I've been using a martingale as part of my tool box since Junket King brought it up. But I use it sparingly in situations where I deem appropriate.

    Using probability and play less and Hit & Run is the ingredient for long term success.
     

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