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Blackjack To Hit or Not to Hit

Discussion in 'Blackjack Forum' started by AnabelleT, Mar 2, 2015.

  1. AnabelleT

    AnabelleT Guest

    This is about 16 against a 10 or A.

    I'm sure this has been talked about to death here but I couldn't find a discussion.

    Where I play they don't allow surrender, so I have to hit or stay on a 16 against a 10 or A.

    I've been hitting my 16s because Mike Shackleford and others suggest you have the best odds hitting, but recently I read a book by Sam Barrington and what he wrote made sense so now I'm a bit confused :sour: He says to never hit on a 16 because if you hit on a 16 you'll win 25.23% of the time, bust 69.31% of the time, and push 5.46% of the time for a net loss of 44.08% of the time. If you stand on 16 you win 29.01% of the time, and lose 70.99% of the time for a net loss of 41.98%. So by standing on 16 instead of taking a hit, you cut your losses by 2.1%

    What do you guys say?

    Source.
     
  2. zengrifter

    zengrifter Member Lineage to Founders

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    Barrington is WRONG. He is a crackpot.
     
  3. nowun

    nowun Member Lineage to Founders

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    I always hit a 16 against 10 or A. The feeling of getting a 5 outweighs the losing feeling when beaten.
     
  4. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Mike Shackleford is an actuary.

    Now, here's the thing about actuaries:

    They are, by nature, very meticulous about their calculations. They are often minimalists, that may forget to button a button on their shirt, or feed the cat, but they never ever make an error when it comes to the posted arithmetic. There's a greater chance that the paper on which they write will spontaneously rearrange the numbers that they have typed or written than there is that they will make and leave an error.

    I would bet that Shackleford's calculations are correct 101% of the time.

    Oh, and actuaries are terrible drivers because they usually set to close to the steering wheel, and tend to drive the wrong way over the spikes at the rental car company.

    And, they buy TVs that are far too small.

    And, no, I've never ever met Mike Shackleford. But, he's an actuary, and I have some friends that are actuaries. And actuaries will drive you nuts. Especially when it comes time to pay a restaurant bill and leave a tip. And they always carry pennies, so that they can pay the precise bill in a convenience store while completely annoying the hell out of everyone in line. At Christmas, they will write you a check, like your uncle.

    And they let the phone ring too many times before answering. And they eat Captain Crunch while making annoying sounds.

    Actually, actuaries irritate the hell out of me, but I'm trying really really really hard to not let that show.

    Oh, and did I mention that they drive like sh#t?


    -Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone
     
  5. zengrifter

    zengrifter Member Lineage to Founders

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    But not a crackpot.
    And crackpots drive even worse.
     
  6. Tony Baloney

    Tony Baloney Member Lineage to Founders

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    Hey Dr Anyone, your Shackleford piece was sheer brilliance. LOL. I guess there is no chance of you ever again shacking up with another actuary, like Snow White did...
     

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  7. Tony Baloney

    Tony Baloney Member Lineage to Founders

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    Hey Dr Anyone, your Shackleford piece was sheer brilliance. LOL. I guess there is no chance of you ever again shacking up with another actuary, like Snow White did... down act.jpg
     
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  8. $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Active Member Founding Member

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    16 vs. 10 Up card -

    2 card Hard 16 vs. a Dealer Up 10 card - HIT at 0 or -1 or worse -

    Stand at +1 or Better -

    3 OR More card Hard 16 vs. a Dealer Up 10 card - STAND - whether the count is + OR - !

    ALL Counts are ACTUAL counts !

    That's how I was taught !

    $...eE..$
     
  9. zengrifter

    zengrifter Member Lineage to Founders

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    Disagree.
    Also must consider #decks.
     
  10. $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Active Member Founding Member

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    WRONG -

    The COUNT is THE count -

    Regardless of the # of decks -

    WHEN " Properly " converted to the " True Count " !

    The COUNT is ' the Dictator ' of Basic Strategy deviations !

    $...eE..$
     
  11. paperposter

    paperposter New Member Founding Member

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    hit always
     
  12. jbs

    jbs Member

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    Quite wrong!!
     
  13. KewlJ

    KewlJ Active Member

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    Stand. Counter's basic strategy. I wong out aggressively of negative counts, which means that I play fewer negative and neutral counts where hitting is he mathematical correct play. By always standing, I am making the correct play 80% of the time and making the correct play 100% of the time that I have anything larger than my minimum wager out.

    This makes the cost of always standing very minimal and takes away one of the biggest tools used to identify counters...how they play the frequent hand of 16 vs 10 and whether they play it differently at different times.
     
  14. Anna Loudon

    Anna Loudon Member

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    I don't hit frequently against a :10: or an :A:. Why would I bust the dealer can still bust once in awhile and I am tired of being the sacrificed lamb at the table.
     
  15. Anna Loudon

    Anna Loudon Member

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    Happy because he must be making money.
     
  16. Tony Baloney

    Tony Baloney Member Lineage to Founders

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    Nobody ever made much money using Basic Strategy. Card counter sun-bleached bones also litter the sides of major highways out of Vegas. Whatever the count is or isn't, I say best to STAND [and pray] on 16 V Anything, for one very good reason only: the dealer Bust Rate is 28.20%.
     
  17. Anna Loudon

    Anna Loudon Member

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    Well I like that 28.20% sometimes I also like taking my finger and drawing a line to forgot half my bet every once in awhile because when you gamble you cannot win every hand. Once in awhile I hit.
     
  18. Vilma Young

    Vilma Young New Member

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    This is an impotent decision to take. In my opinion always hit 16 against 10.
     
  19. Mickey Crimm

    Mickey Crimm Well-Known Member

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    With single deck, first hand off the top, composition strategy, whether to hit a 3-card or more 16 depends on its composition. The rule is:

    A 16 containing a six, with a six, seven, eight or nine is a hit. All other combinations are a stand.
     
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  20. Greasyjohn

    Greasyjohn New Member

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    If you are not counting, and surrender is not offered, always hit a 16 vs 10-value up card or vs an ace.

    Against a 10-value up card you lose 75% of your money if you hit, but you lose 77% of your money if you stand (in the long run). And as Doyle Brunson once said, $2 not lost is the same thing as $2 won.

    If you're playing SD or DD (and you're not counting) and you see a few small cards you can stand on your 16 vs a dealer 10 up card, but always hit your 16 vs a dealer ace upcard.
     

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