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Baccarat trend or anti trend?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by tomla, Jan 5, 2015.

  1. tomla

    tomla Member Founding Member

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    Anyone have an opinion on whether it is better to bet with the trend or against? me I prefer anti trend and to bet for the chop!
     
  2. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    Tom,
    When I simulated zumma baccarat books and malta baccarat book I found that all bets are fundamentally same with same level of difficulties. No betselection is better than all at micro or macro level. It is, however, possible to be immune from the worst possible, if you are aware of virtual limit of variance.
     
  3. Jimske

    Jimske New Member Founding Member

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    For the dense like me what exactly does "virtual limit of variance" mean? That things don't last forever?
     
  4. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    I have explained that in betselection.cc and my blog but will soon elaborate in a separate topic here.
     
  5. Michael

    Michael Member

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    I like to bet a choppy biased shoe (1's and 2's) as well as the (2's and 3's). I bet opposite the last decision with a 12 down loss progression on the (1's and 2's). With (2's and 3's I bet opposite the time before the last decision with the same progression.

    If the shoe jumps off into streaky runs, I either ride it flat betting until a loss or just pass altogether until the run stops.

    No rocket science. It works for me more often than not. If I choose my shoes with careful selection after 10-15 hands or so, I average +7 to +12 units in roughly 30 hands, plus or minus.

    If the shoe bias changes...I'm OUT of there! Next shoe please!

    I HATE losing just like the next guy but I am NOT going to keep taking it on the chin! Funny thing though...that other guy just sits there and continues his losing way. Me...I've found a new and more promising shoe. Life is TOO short to play crappy shoes that DON'T fit my style of play!
     
    Anna Loudon likes this.
  6. tomla

    tomla Member Founding Member

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    thats a smart style of play
     
    Michael likes this.
  7. Michael

    Michael Member

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    Thanks tomla...I still play for enjoyment and treat it like a business.
     
    Anna Loudon likes this.
  8. Anna Loudon

    Anna Loudon Member

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    Occupation:
    retired
    Location:
    Schiller Park, Illinois
    I need to remember to treat my gambling like a business, I get the play for enjoyment part with no problem. I come in on little money like $70 and win $900 and continue to play for enjoyment thinking I will continue to win only to end up loosing and having to find another small bankroll and start again. I can't believe how many times I justify this with but I ate, laughed talked to others and had a good time. I need to remember to take those winning out the door.
     
  9. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy New Member

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  10. Anna Loudon

    Anna Loudon Member

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    Occupation:
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    Ah the lol of been there done that, hope I never do that again! Or the lol of you cannot be that dumb? Explain please asymacguy?
     
  11. Qswaggerstupid18

    Qswaggerstupid18 New Member

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    I've been wanting to ask this question for the LONGEST ...!!! Ok my best winning streak ever is 14 hands in a row!!.... all flat betting.... Ok, can you say the system I use is luck or some sort of skills... I mean me personally don't believe in LUCK!!... but I also thought if I flipped a coin 14 times, I HIGHLY DOUBT I WILL BE CORRECT 14 TIMES IN A ROW, without some type of skill!!... what did I experienced at the time!!??... I prefer someone who have great knowledge in this game to answer!!?? Thanks

    ( @gmail.com )
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 26, 2016
  12. gizmotron2

    gizmotron2 Active Member

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    People love to associate meaning to things that happen. You can have a bet selection method, and if you gamble a lot, that selection method will show one of five types of effectiveness. These are the five things that can happen from your pet selection method: 1. Works perfect or almost perfect as a win streak. 2. Works very well but about half way between perfect and breaking even. 3. Breaks even. 4. Works half way between breaking even and losing every hand in a row. 5. Loses every hand or bet in a row. In other words a perfect losing streak.

    Once you begin to see your streaks as identifiable as one of these five ways of seeing the streaks you can formulate a best strategy to cope with the current conditions. If you can't see a streak because it is just all over the place it could be that you are just experiencing breaking even or being very close to it. So if you like your bet selection method and it produces all five forms of conditions for you then that is a skill. It's a craft of identifying conditional awareness. On the other hand, if you just go to the casino and plod along aimlessly because you saw a flashing light and the number 7 in it, and you heard a person walking by that shouted "I won!" then it's all just a skill-less matter of luck. But guess what? It doesn't take skill to identify the five conditions either. You can have no bet selection process at all and you can still identify the streaking conditions.

    I play Roulette because I monitor 12 similar paths of decisions to consider, all simultaneously as the game proceeds. With Baccarat I only get one data stream path to consider for patterns, singles, repeats, and effectiveness. So I'm always looking for the working trends from the best source available at the casino.
     
  13. Bombus

    Bombus Active Member

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    I've had 19 wins in a row.
    I've had 19 losses in a row too.
    That pretty much sums it up for me.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2016
  14. soxfan

    soxfan Member

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    Betting flat don't feed the bulldog, hey hey!
     
  15. gizmotron2

    gizmotron2 Active Member

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    It it best to know when it is beneficial to do either. Trends will give you good and bad effectiveness and so will changing when those changes make sense. For those of us that actually look for opportunities in considering both side of it, nothing is a best way. It's just a best way for a while.
     
  16. Bombus

    Bombus Active Member

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    Run two bankrolls, one for trends and one for anti trends.

    Leave each bankroll in suspension whenever your bet selection switches between the two.

    You could even run more independent bankrolls according to effectiveness measures within the two.


    Life wasn't meant to be easy, especially for gamblers.
     
    gizmotron2 likes this.
  17. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
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    Las Vegas
    I have been playing a lot of baccarat recently - The Palms and Palace Station respectfully.

    I play the anti-trend and been doing well, however you have to have incredible patience and be able to sit though many hand without playing. I play at the $5 theater baccarat only because I can play the way I want to play. At the big tables, you only get 3 free hands in a row and a maximum of 5 free hands, if at a under $25 table, before the floorman will come and ask you to bet or leave the table. The dealers rarely enforce that, but the floormen do enforce it. As a side note many players now just walk around the entire baccarat area jumping in and out of tables, or laying their bets on top of another players bet, and most players are OK with that.

    I talk to the regulars at the casinos who play baccarat everyday. Most do OK, some better than others, however everyone has a down day and nobody is winning 100% of the time. Some play trend, and other anti-trend. Most players just play the trend, or "next to last previous result" so a PBP the next bet is the B. This tends to catch most trends and streaks.

    I find that how ones play all depends on how much action as a player you want to engage in. My anti-trend play is far less action than a trending play and is more suited for higher limit tables.
    Palace Station also opened up a new Baccarat area yesterday with EZ Baccarat. I got dragged to the tables by a friend where my anti-trend play was not going to work because of the '3 free pass rule' thing that the floorman was enforcing. So ended up playing the trending method because of the stupid rules the floorman was enforcing.

    I really don't think one method is better than the other, its just that you go with the method that fits your personality and style.

    Chip control AKA money management and a sensible betting strategy absolutely determines if you will profit or lose.

    I think any method with some sort of variance in the size of the next bet, based a win or loss, is the real power in baccarat. Martingales can be very powerful however very dangerous as well, so you have to have deep pockets to play martingales. Loss or win progressions is the more popular, however when to progress your bet and how much is always a good question. If you have a lot of time, then flat betting can work out as it is the least volatile and after a few hours you might be a unit or two ahead depending on your play.

    One thing with Baccarat players is that everyone does their own thing. A lot of people have a lot of experience with pattern recognition, and like any casino table game, there are certain patterns that you see time and time again. When a shoe is giving a lot of recognizable patterns the players dominate, when the shoe is chaotic, the house dominates.

    There is no Method that will beat baccarat. Nobody wins 100% of the time.

    Skilled players can make the daily nut off the game as I do and as I know a lot of players do.

    For example here is my play from Yesterday:
    Started at Palace Station ...
    Played baccarat ($5 Theater) for a few hours and got up to $60 profit.
    Played Craps for a hour and got $20 profit
    Got dragged to EZ baccarat by a friend to a $10 table and played for an hour to make $5 profit and I just gave that as a tip to the dealer
    Then I went to The Palms
    Checked the kiosk; got nothing as usual.
    Got my free gift ( a set of head phones) then headed to the baccarat theater
    Bumped in to some friends and chatted for a bit about advantage play. My friend is a full-time bonus hunter and make over $100K a year. We setup a lunch date for later in the week
    So I lost $50 really fast at the baccarat theater decided to: cut and run. Rule #2 is don't continue to play when you are in a losing spiral pattern.

    The local regulars there told me that I should to to MGM where they have a baccarat theater now, and most are going over there because at Stations casinos you get no points for play.

    I then went back to Palace station and played for a few hours where I recovers my $50 and then some
    I then played Craps and grinned up another $30 profit
    At the end of the day I ended up $110 in profit all from $5 base bets.

    $110 X 30 days is $3,300 a month. Even if i lose half of that back to the casino, that is still $1650 a month tax free.

    So, as for some Rules of Thumb that I use..
    #1, Don't play if your girl/boyfriend or spouse is pestering you.
    #2, If you start off right away in a losing pattern: cut and run!
    #3 If you are Hungry, Angry, Lonely or Tired then don't play till you fixed those issues.
     

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