Baccarat Trending with Domination and Parlays!

The following is one of my preferred ways to play Baccarat.
It relies on a strong side and a weak side and the use of a parlay to capture a few wins from the dominant side. There are other mechanisms involved in the trending to stop (if necessary) at certain points and to start up again on what I call a 'virtual win'. I find the majority of times that there are enough condensed 3 unit wins to make up for the continuous single unit losses that do occur.

I will go through some shoes explaining the details to show how it all works. Sputnik posted some shoes from the MoSun Casino in his 'notes on baccarat' thread and so I shall use them to explain.

P
B
P (so I am looking for a P dom situation)
P W (this is the first step of my parlay attempt)
B L (the parlay was unsuccessful and so that's a 1 unit loss)
P W (back on the parlay trail looking for another P)
B L (another losing attempt and another 1 unit loss)
B L (ok, so here was another loss at the first stage of the parlay attempt and also the P dominance has ended. Now I am looking for the B dominance to continue and will attempt for a parlay on the B side)
B W (a winning first step. Can I get the first parlay win on the board?)
P L (nope, another loss and I make that -4 units in total so far)
P L (another losing first attempt and -5 in total now.)
**You will also notice the last 4 results are BBPP 'terrible 2's time' Whenever I see this situation, I stop and wait until any kind of winning bet before I start betting again. Why? Because I am looking to bet in sections of the shoe where I can get several parlay wins condensed and want to try and avoid long losing spells if I can possibly help it.
P (so a P has come and I could be in line for a P dominance. I don't count this as any kind of win, it's more like a trigger that the P's could start to appear and so I will start betting again now for a P parlay.
B L (another loss at the first attempt and -6 in total.)
P W (a winning first step)
P W (at last, a winning parlay and a deficit of -3 now)
P W (another winning first step)
P W (another winning parlay and back to all square)
P W (things are looking a little better)
P W (in profit now of +3 units)
P W (good start to the parlay)
B L (oh well, it was looking too good and back to +2 in front)
P W (another good start)
P W (and another +3 taking it to +5 in front)
B L (a 1 unit loss taking it back to +4)
B L (and another 1 unit loss bringing it back to +3 and the dreaded PPBB meaning it's time for a break)
B (so things could be lining up for a B dominance after a period of P's. This was the trigger to start betting for the B's.)
P L (so even though that's a loss at the first attempt, I am still hopeful for some kind of B dominance. Now sitting at +2 in front.)
B W (a winning first step)
B W (and another successful parlay taking things to +5 in front.)

The running commentary will hopefully help explain how I go about it for anybody interested.
I will complete all the 11 shoes that Sputnik posted with the figures next to them so anybody following can check the results to make sure they get it.

This is a simplified idea from a more complex trend following strategy. Sometimes simpler is better because trying to play every hand can be taxing and you can't afford mistakes. I find it still does what I want it to do. ie: cut out some of the longer losing runs and condense some very nice +3 wins.

cheers

 

Simpler is better sometimes. Thank you for sharing!

 

What I will do when I type out these shoes is to also display by P-dom or B-dom what side I would be betting on as a guide.

So shoe 1 is the complete shoe from the example above.

P
B
P
P P-dom W
B L -1
P W
B L -1
B L -1
B B-dom W
P L -1
P L -1
P
B P-dom L -1
P W
P W +3
P W
P W +3
P W
P W +3
P W
B L -1
P W
P W +3
B L -1
B L -1
B
P B-dom L -1
B W
B W +3
P L -1
P L -1
P
P P-dom W
B L -1
P W
P W +3
P W
B L -1
B L -1
P
P
P
B P-dom L -1
P W
P W +3
P W
B L -1
B L -1
P
P
P
B P-dom L -1
B L -1
P
P
B
P
P P-dom W
B L -1
P W
P W +3
B L -1
B L -1
B
B B-dom W
B W +3
P L -1
P L -1
P
P P-dom W +1 (END OF SHOE)

+28 vs -25 = +3 less the tax.

 

Shoe 2

P
P
P P-dom W
P W +3
B L -1
B L -1
P
B
B B-dom W
B W +3
B W
P L -1
B W
B W +3
B W
B W +3
P L -1
B W
P L -1
P L -1
P P-dom W
B L -1
B L -1
P
P
P
B P-dom L
P W
P W +3
P W
P W +3
B L -1
P W
B L -1
P W
B L -1
P W
B L -1
B L -1
P B-dom L-1
B W
P L -1
P L -1
P P-dom W
B L -1
B L -1
B B-dom W
P L -1
P L -1
P
P P-dom W
P W +3
P W
B L -1
B L -1
B
P B-dom L -1
B W
B W +3
B W
P L -1
B W
B W +3
P L -1
B W
B W +3
P L -1
B W
B W +3
B W
B W +3
B W +1 (END OF SHOE)

+37 vs -27 = +10 less tax.

 

Eugene, I don't like your Bac play....I LOVE YOUR BAC PLAY!

With a few exceptions here and there, your play is rather similar to my own, and so I felt compelled to respond.

Stopping at two consecutive losses and reassessing the current shoe conditions?: Absolutely solid play, my friend.

I, too, play a "gap allowance" game: While I'm on the lookout for any doms (read: dominations), I'll measure the "gaps" (read: number of losses between wins...obviously, 1 is best, but 2 is doable) and make my appropriate bets accordingly.

I notice that we play the "chops" differently...you're on the lone "dom" side, where I'd be much more inclined to play that straight chop as a TBL run. You see, I don't only measure my doms as P vs B; I also track TBL vs OTBL. (Sidenote: I've caught many a "terrible two's" run that way as well.)

But the "max 2-gap allowance" is golden in my book. It exudes patience, discipline, and confidence in one's play. Great job!

Oh...and one other thing, if I may...While I, too, utilize some parlays in my play; unless I'm into a rather prevalent dom, I'm a bit more inclined to utilize a "half-parlay", all in the name of "profit preservation" (read: just a bit less at risk after an initial win).

Sorry if I rambled on a bit here, Eugene, but I was just so pleased to read of one's Bac play that I could really and truly trust and believe in.

Stay safe and stay well, all.

 

Hello gr8player and thanks for your post. It's heartening to read that I am on the right track.
Baccarat isn't strictly my main game although I have spent considerable time looking at it and dabbling on the tables over the last 2/3 years.
I get what you are saying about the chops and agree that you can have some really nice runs on the 'terrible 2's' however because of my lack of playing experience, I had to trim things down a bit because I think I tried to bite off too much too soon.

Anyway, it's all a learning curve and maybe taking a step back will help me move a couple of more forward in the future. It's great to see you posting more again.

Take care and best wishes!

 

Eugene you keep track always of the dominant side and that is a very important phase because as we know in order for a shoe to tilt towards one side or another the streaks, no matter if they are 3s,4s,5s, or more they always must go through the wins of 2 in a row. now I like to ask you this;
do you raise your bets higher then just a parlay if you have a bigger draw down then 3/5 units or you just keep it doing a parlay ?
I played a similar method years back but would raise both base bets and parlay at times, but that was in playing blackjack which does not give you the choice of playing 2 sides. anyhow I like the method a lot and it has good potential for winning. thanks.
R.

 

Parlay are solid but you cats are kilin me with this trendings stuff, yer killin me over here I say. Now where that john-O at when ya really need him, hey hey!

 

Does john-o have a flat bet winning method or does he rely on staking plan and MM?

 

Hello Rinad, so far so good in my online play and I haven't raised the parlay bet from an initial 1 unit.
One I idea that is nagging away at me is the W/L registry. When you get all those -1 results clumping, that is a type of dominance in itself.
So if I see something like....
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
+3
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
Then it's fair to say the +3 is not clumping and so I am looking/thinking if there is also a way I can take advantage of that.

cheers

 

John-O is like a caged tiger waiting for the 21st May to return to the tables (with mask and hand sanitizer at the ready naturally.)

I hope he is doing well and surviving lockdown!

 

Shoe 3

B
B
P B-dom L -1
P L -1
B
B
B
B B-dom W
B W +3
P L -1
P L -1
B
P
B P-dom L -1
B L -1
P B-dom L -1
B W
B W +3
P L -1
B W
B W +3
P L -1
B W
B W +3
P L -1
P L -1
P
P P-dom W
P W +3
B L -1
P W
P W +3
P W
B L -1
P W
B L -1
P W
P W +3
B L -1
P W
P W +3
B L -1
P W
P W +3
B L -1
P W
B L -1
P W
B L -1
P W
B L -1
B L -1
P B-dom L -1
B W
B W +3
P L -1
P L -1
B
B
P
B
B B-dom W
P L -1
P L -1
P
P P-dom W
B L -1 (END OF SHOE)
+30 vs -27 = +3 less tax.

 

Shoe 4

P
B
P
P P-dom W
B L -1
P W
P W +3
B L -1
B L -1
B
B B-dom W
P L -1
B W
B W +3
B W
P L -1
P L -1
P
B P-dom L -1
B L -1
B
B B-dom W
P L -1
B W
B W +3
P L -1
P L -1
B
P
P P-dom W
B L -1
B L -1
P
B
B B-dom W
B W +3
B W
B W +3
B W
B W +3
P L -1
B W
B W +3
B W
P L -1
P L -1
P
P P-dom W
P W +3
P W
P W +3
P W
B L -1
B L -1
B
B B-dom W
B W +3
P L -1
P L -1
B
P
B P-dom L -1
B L -1
B B-dom W
P L -1
B W
B W +3
B W
P L -1
B W
P L -1
B W +1 (END OF SHOE)
+34 vs -25 = +9 less tax.

 

John-O would be entitled to a FEE.

 

Eugene the way that could help with that is maybe not playing as as often and going betting on 2s to become 3s and more. in other words right now we have the other side that is enemy number one like you are showing above when they are clumping, then enemy number two when one's dont hit 2 in a row. but betting twos to become 3s leaves you only with enemy number 2 which is twos not becoming 3s. ? just a thought, and i know that hitting for a second win is just as likely then hitting for a third win so we are not hurting any win rate, just takes longer for betting.
anyhow it is just my take in getting rid of that problem of the other side. Cheers bro. R.

 

Thank you for your suggestion Rinad, I will run a few shoes like that as well just to see what happens.
I did come up with a solution today which I have borrowed from my roulette studies. It will blow your socks off, it's kind of like a cheat sheet and when you run the cheat sheet next to any shoe playing like I have described above, you will see how accurate it is at predicting when the +3's and -1's appear. Before I get into that, I will finish off Sputnik's 11 shoes from MoSun first and then redo them with the cheat sheet side by side. Once I explain how that works, I reckon that's it and it's good to go! Even the naysayers may be tempted to break into the piggy bank!

 

Shoe 5

B
B
B B-dom B W
B W +3
P L -1
B W
B W +3
B W
B W +3
P L -1
B W
P L -1
P L -1
P P-dom W
B L -1
B L -1
P
P
B
B
B
P B-dom L -1
B W
B W +3
B W
B W +3
P L -1
P L -1
B
B
P
P
B
P
P P-dom W
P W +3
B L -1
B L -1
B
B B-dom W
B W +3
P L -1
B W
P L -1
B W
P L -1
P L -1
P P-dom W
B L -1
P W
P W +3
P W
B L -1
P W
P W +3
P W
B L -1
P W
B L -1
P W
P W +3
P W
P W +3
B L -1
B L -1
P
B
P B-dom L -1
P L -1
B P-dom L -1
B L -1 (END OF SHOE)

+33 vs -25 = +8 less tax.

 

Eugene - might you play opposite what you would normally from dominant side to weak side? The only issue I would see there is the chops. But if there’s a way to figure that out, I know you can! Keep up the good work!

 

Thanksou Eugene for posting!

 

So, it look like the Eugene determine the dominance by looking at what side won the majority of past 3 or 4 decision, hey hey?