Roulette Understand the Cherry-Pick Concept!

Hi Gentlemen,
and due respect to my Guru.

Do U undrestand this concept.

Say,
If we bet Marthy CONTINUOSLY,
for tens of thousand spins, what may happen?

Since my English no good, then I borrow Albalaha's words.
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Quote ."We can expect an equilibrium theoretically in a no house edge game and there is an equilibrium in all my combinations taken together but practically, a counterpart of an EC can be ahead of other and may remain so, even after a few million spins.
We may remain above equilibrium, at equilibrium or below equilibrium for very long time and can't guess that even in a game of no house edge."unquote
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After understanding that, now we make an experiment.
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we applly 10steps MARTHY ,
[ stop at +1u][if lose 10spins, WAIT for break...to resume],

to bet tens of tousand of spins continuouly and make a log/chart, to SEE what happened.

This will be the typical reaction...
--------------------------------

We will win, and win, and win, and win one unit, and feel glad at maybe hundreds of units won, then the debacle hit! We lose -1023Unit!..

Thus after deduct the hundreds won earlier, we still lose a few hundreds units...

But we move on,[after a break in 10spins loss]....and we win, and win, and win, and win many 1unit...and now the losses narrowing to a hundred or so losses...THEN debacle hit again..

Duh! Again -1023u losses, and now our losses, more that a thousand unit!

But we move on,....and we win, and win, and win, and win many 1unit...and now the losses narrowing to hundred or so losses...THEN debacle hit again, ...and...and...and...
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Now these scenario will be repeated again, and again, and again...until...

If we are lucky, then the losses will be just a few hundreds, or unlucky, will be in thousands units losses!
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If we now, LOOK BACK, at our log/chart of those many thousands spins of bet...
and with a red pen in hand, rounding up the losses streaks...

U will say.."Oh!..Here we lose, and here and here and here and here and here...."..and u start to wonder.

"What if we COULD AVOID, those losing streaks, and only bet at the winning streak...if only we could...or, could we?"

The trillion dollar question, is , COULD we AVOID those losing streaks that caused the -1023u losses...and then pick or cheery pick the winning streaks, by skip and run and win at just 1unit.

We bet after the losing streaks HAPPENED, and bet afterward, by the conclusion that the losses wont hit TWICE in row,...as u see 20spins streaks losses is very rare.


==========
IF u do not understand WHAT I am blabering about...
Then here my suggestion.

What your favorite SYSTEM, that has a loss cutting mode.???

Then u use that system to bet tens of thousand spins...VIRTUALLY, and u make a record of the spins...

After that, u look back at the log, and see where u LOSE, and u will see...that IF U bet, only after A VIRTUAL CUT-LOSS event, u will win more session than you lose.

In simpler word, u only bet after a losing session hit.

What U think???

 

Yes we will lose less and win less, we playing less spins and spins never played will either lose or win.

The reason the NOZ at BV do not anymore allow free spin and sessions lasting more than 24 hours, was thousends of bots
waiting for 12 to 18 in a row, before starting a marty. It was for sure not because they should lose money, rather missuse of costly broadband.
And not of any gain for the player. After winning a few cents a day it was looking "it works", but using a marty a few times as it was dispite so many spins, use "to work".

Many million sims has been done checking marty, and I have never seen any win, unless zillions of chips and no limit. Even that do not allways help.

If you find a way predicting the losing spins, of course you will win. Try a marty reverse on a single number, I am sure you do better, you can
lose anhow, but never 1023 one day at the casino. Bet one every spin, if back on first hit double, and reset after you get 100 plus.
I do not endorse any to do it real, before the risks is understood.

 

Losing STREAKS, are the main cause of a losing session.
By avoiding losing streak event,
that is bet only after the losing event had happen,
we STAND a better chance to win.
This is because, with any staking,
u will see that the payout and the zero always
defeat your chances to win, and take your underwear too...

Then U understand the win/lose ratio.

In Marthy, the single loss, will wipe out -1023 win.
Thus the danger lies in more than 1/1023 win/lose. ratio.

Thus if u see 10 or more losses in row, then break, and u bet the next 10 losses in row wont happen.

If your system has 1/1 win/lose ratio, then it is difficult.
It like flatbet.

if your system has say,
10/1 w/l ratio, and the one lose wipe out previous 10winning units,
then u may wait for a lose, then bet ONCE for a single win, and wait again.

This is not fallacy. it is just not possible that , Marthy, or your system, losses back to back for say ten times!

 

Hi Jesper.
Thanks for your reply.
It is very interesting that u could apply, what I think about the cherry pick concept on the reverse Marthy.
Ok, as u say,
U bet VIRTUAL, meaning u do not play real money,
until u lose, than after a certain losses, only then u bet,
as u already avoid losses chances,
u may hit better chance to win.,..[stop at first win, with progression.]

ie.
U SEE...

red=bet red.
black=bet black.
red=bet red.
black=bet black.
red=bet red.
black=bet black.
red=bet red.
black=bet black.
red=bet red.
black=bet black.
zero=lose
U already lose 10Units VIRTUALLY!, after u see this happen, then only u start bet hoping that this losing pattern wont hit again.
Just my thought.

 

No matter what kind of bet selection u use, u will SEE a CERTAIN WIN/LOSE ratio!!!
.AND will see huge losses and winning session RATIO too, thus I THINK, the way to win , is to wait, and avoid,...this is not fallacy, we wait for random to behave what he want to be, but as we see that even random has a win/lose ratio, u could effectively avoid the loss ratio, not forgetting the profit/loss ratio too.
===============

ie.
Marthy has the math ratio of 1/1023permutation, of 10losses, excluded the GREEN,
green play HAVOC!...and of course Marthy 10losses may happen twice thrice in less than 1023 attempt!

What I say here is just EXAMPLE, of a cherry pick concept, THE MARTHY here,
is just an example, because it is easy for us to GRASP the RISK, and the reward ratio.

I do not say to USE marthy, but u could use your OWN system, and then u AVOID the losses first, before u bet real money, as this may reduce the LOSING chance...
Just my thought...

 

No betselection is good enough to play martingale. Those who loves martingale feeds most to casino. Win the least in your best times, lose the max possible in your worst, that is all about marty. You are always prone to lose 1023 chips before winning 1024. I need not say more.

 

Another example.

PLUSCORP/ OSCAR GRIND.
STOP AT +1, DONT STOP TILL PROFIT.

When U do a chat of win/lose, +1, add one, and minus -1 every spin,
U will see that u will win, win, win,win, and then the debacle HIT!!!
The line will go down,down,down,down with every spin into the NEGATIVE territory!
And the losses will become larger and larger..
Then why on earth u want to bet this WAY if u already see the RISK ratio???

Then u will see the line CLIMB up, meaning the worst is over..[???]
and only then u bet, and run with a single profit!

U must not bet all from beginning, just wait for the worst loss to form,
then when u see the line start moving upward,
the only u bet, as the chances to win, become higher..
is this a fallacy?

I dont think so, as u wait out the losses, let random do what he want to do,
and bet when the lose ratio , seems depleted.

just my thought.

 

You may like to read this: http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/10789313/Analysing-Oscars-GrindPluscoup-progression#.VUMHZtKqqko

 

Albalaha's quote.
"It is good only if your bet gets near equilibrium sooner than later. .."unquote.
================
so pluscoup is not the effective, since u bet on luck that it will "gets near equilibrium sooner than later."

so, what the know progressive that will win, without.."gets near equilibrium sooner than later."

Marthy is OUT.
then I think..LABBY?!

as it no need, to, gets near equilibrium sooner than later...to win.

 

I personally think that if u cant close labby after , say, 30 spins,
then that the VIRTUAL loss,
and u may bet labby for the next 30spins,
and if the hit=33%, that will be wonderful!

or I wrong somewhere?
Anyone care to comment???

 

but Labby will get dangerous in below 1/3 win rate prolonging a bit. We know that we can have even 25/100 hits of an EC. In such cases labby would need millions.
No known progression on earth can win money for you, in long run, auto pilot. Martingale, fibonacci and labouchere all are unbeatable progressions with unlimited units to risk but not even playable in real life.

 

Wow, ! Albalaha,

"even 25/100 hits of an EC."!!! OMG!
==========================

Thus the bet-selection must avoid this 25/100 debacle!!!


From what I learn from my Guru,
1]Bet selection to avoid debacle of, sort like the 25/100EC.
2]Progression to withstand huge monstrous variance.
3]Cut losses to avoid BR debacle...
4]A few winning session, that will recoup a single loss session.

But since my Guru wont say more,
and since incommunicado, I just get stuck here,
bewildering at the remaining ....
Maybe U could help, since I see U seems to know everything I say..!?

 

Heloo Albalaha,

Now we make to understand that no progression will win...
because the next tens spins will be a debacle.

Thus the answer lies in...BETSELECTION management...
We must have a proper selection,
to ensure that the next tens of spins will "BET-ABLE"? so to speak?
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When I say MARTHY, u say, A single loss, =great calamity.

When I say pluscorp, u say,
Equilibrium may not materialized.

When I say LABBY , u say,
a few hit 25/100EC =possible.

When I say this,that, these, those, here, there , u say,
'No known progression on earth can win money for you, in long run, auto pilot.'

then what more to say..HAHAHHAHAAAAAAA!
oops! sorry to LOL, cant help...

Then the only left is, kind of,
how to bet where the next tens of spins
will be bet-able with whatever safe progression.

But when I say "bet after VIRTUAL loss", u say 25/100 is possible!!!
Then what left to bet? heheheee...

maybe "bet, after VIRTUAL loss of after VIRTUAL loss of after VIRTUAL loss, then VIRTUAL-WIN!!!"
hahahaaahahaa!



Hmmmmm...maybe there some sort of betting STYLE,
that hard for the laymen to understand?

But then again, after pondering your saying,
U must have a way to bet that will avoid "25/100 EC",
or else , how u bet???
I think u must have found a way that when u bet , the next tens of spins will produce,
"Super-smooth-highway", that u will win huge, and if u lose, u also lose huge before u cut losses, but could recoup after a few winning season!

or ELSE, there no other way...

 

Every money management is based upon an expectation. When contrary happens, it loses. That is true for flat betting to grand martingale, every positive, negative or rider progression.
Say, you chose to use labby after a 25/100 case, it is still possible to have only 30-32 wins in next 100 spins. You are again at the risk of losing a million or more.

 

There is only one way,
Think of long run as 25/100 is possible for an EC bet but 250/1000 is not. Even 350/1000 is next to impossible. If the game has been so easily beatable, every person would have sucked casinos. Winning is not impossible, winning in all probability is.

 

Ahhhh!
"EXPECTATION!"
Every money management is based upon an expectation.

Since my English no so proficient, I am loss at the proper word, now I can.
"Every money management is based upon an expectation.
When contrary happens, it loses."

Thus the real GRAIL, is to find a way so that the next tens of spins will fall within the EXPECTATION, of our chosen money EXPECTATION!!!

Ahhh!.. I think U should be my GURU...!
Will U except me as your student???

 

''but 250/1000 is not...''
Even 350/1000 is next to impossible.

============================
U expect to chop down the 1000spin, that will not have 350-less???
With the expectation that the 1000, chop up, will not have combined less than 350?
How could we do it?

Waiting for 500spins to see the result???

 

Theoretically, there will be around 480/1000,
thus we bet there will be no less than 350/1000...
BUT 1000 seems to be just......
unless u wait and chop-chop them to betable bet?
Duh! This getting exiting but confusing!!!

 

Anything below 380/1,000 is unlikely and unseen. Similarly anything below 825/2,000 is next to impossible. You just keep increasing the trials and you get a comparatively smoother variance. In 20k spins, the variance can get u at worst to 9,300/20,000. That is what "law of large numbers" and "regression towards mean" confirm too.
You may not get equilibrium or even at theoretical Expected value even after a million trials but surely very close to that. In short run, you may see as much harsh times when u see only 1 win between 30-40 losses. Anybody telling you a magical formula to win in 10 spins is either a fool or a crook.

 

wow!
OK... let say...
no less 380/1000, thus if we chop-chop them to, say , 10 session,
then 38/100 ..
so we bet every 100spins will have at least 38hit, and try to win huge with that so the single losses will be recoup by next few huge win???!!!

...am I wrong somewhere?