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Roulette Understand the Cherry-Pick Concept!

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by beat-the-wheel, May 1, 2015.

  1. beat-the-wheel

    beat-the-wheel Member Founding Member

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    this is really eyes opening or rather eyes PRYING!

    380/1,000
    825/2,000
    9,300/20,000.
    is next to impossible.
    ===================

    38/100 for 10 seasons,
    or 19/50 for 20 seasons...
    or 9.5/25 for 40 seasons...
    or 4.75/12.5 for 80 seasons!
    and see whether the losses will be off set by more profit.
     
  2. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    EVERY 100 spins may not have at least 38 wins but as a whole, surely in 1000 spins u will have more than 380 wins. Think of something that can win u in 380/1000, in any manner. Thenu can play in sessions of 100 spins or 200 or any length, for that matter.
     
  3. beat-the-wheel

    beat-the-wheel Member Founding Member

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    Wow, Albalaha,
    YOU ARE GENIUS!!!

    Even I do not really 100%, only 98% understand what U trying to teach here, I can see that , your concept a GENIUS!!!!
     
  4. beat-the-wheel

    beat-the-wheel Member Founding Member

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    I think we should stop here, as u tell too much, maybe we should talk in private.
    There no edit after 5minutes..Duh!
    or else I delete all posting here.
    call me any name, but the concept too valuable to be posted here.
    Duh!
     
  5. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    Just understand the worst of variance in short and long run:
    25 spins: you may not get even a single win, so, 100% loss possible
    50 spins: not less than 3 wins
    100 spins: not less than 20-25 wins
    200 spins: not less than 50-55 wins
    500 spins: not less than 175 wins
    1000 spins: not less than 380 wins
    20k spins: not less than 9300 wins

    Now, decide yourself as to what kind of volatility you can handle.
     
    Anastasios likes this.
  6. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    Do not worry. I am only talking of the realistic probability of a session, otherwise you can find members that will say, roulette ball or wheel has no memory so it is even possible to get 20k losses in 20k trials.
     
  7. beat-the-wheel

    beat-the-wheel Member Founding Member

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    Now I begin to suspect that my Guru, is your student!...as he cant answer some of my question!
     

  8. Jesper Svensson

    Jesper Svensson Member

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    I do not play virtual, the positive progression I use on other then EC. Normal a straight up. If it start with a sleeping period of 400 spins, I am back 400 units (I play cents). Next bet after a hit is 3 units until next hit, then 7. I have been up to 511 in stake after hundreds of bets, and a two hits in short time save the session.

    We often Think it is limits of how the outcome can be. It is not realy thru, but you can see the thought behind (admited or not) if a number sleep
    it will hit more frequent later.

    I think EC bet are very difficult if we use the six on the table side. It is a fraction of all EC-bets, all combination of 18 numbers are EC-bets, and if we count all 30+ misses are not uncommon at all, we do not watch for it.

    1,11,26,34,0,9,24,17,1,4,7,18,33,9,3,20,20,35,30,4,15,34,36,8,15,0,1,34,1,30,17

    The string of numbers is an EC with 31 missing numbers or an EC wit all numbers.
    If we bet the sleeping EC we lose 31 times.
     
  9. Jesper Svensson

    Jesper Svensson Member

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    For dozens where are more than three, there are a hugde number as every 12 number is a dozen, in a cycle of 37 spins near about allways one dozen sleep all 37 spins.
     
  10. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    Partially true. If a number has been sleeping over 400 spins, most likely next hits should come with better frequency than 400 a hit but we can not say, we will get 5 hits of that number in next 100 spins. There is a small string between reality and fallacy.
     
  11. Jesper Svensson

    Jesper Svensson Member

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    I very seldom see 21 different numbers at BV marque, I recall it once just, and I have played a lot. If we Think not all will be different we can use it, and only bust if we are wrong.
    If we are worry of a long losing string on a color, playing negative progression, and hear all shout "YOU WILL LOSE 100%". Now we can play without zero, and the bank is winning at the time the long losing streaks arraive. The bank playing positive progression against us, if we shift to positive progressions, the bank is the martingaler "bound to lose".
    When to stop a marty positive? When you Catch up! This will not work well on zero Wheel as the turnover can be 1000 of chips for a modest gain.

    The bank has advantages on the probably larger bankroll only.
     
  12. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Not true. Furthermore, if you're playing a live wheel, then you'd be wise to stay away from such a cold number. The number could be weaker for a reason. Such a poor performer could theoretically lose at a rate that could actually exceed the house edge due to a possible wheel defect.
     
  13. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    Could be, could not be. Only speculations.
     
  14. Jesper Svensson

    Jesper Svensson Member

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    In which casino they are not checking the wheels regulary? When you find such a Wheel producing a number never show or allways at least sleep more. 1000 sleeaper is possible on any Wheel, it is about the same as 50 EC. If it is just ONE number it has to be near about visible damage, otherwise it should be at least 10 numbers, a slice in the Wheel.

    The sample length large enought will show every outcome.
    In the timeframe we are playing, it is minor risk to see a number sleep first 400 and then 400 and then 400. It can be a faulty Wheel, but casinos are aware. Anyhow playing on straight up is a good choise. If we are afraid of the -EV, we can go to NOZ or just not play the game.
     

  15. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Jesper,

    I've noticed something about you, and Beat the Wheel...
    It's as if you're the same person, and maybe one other person on this forum. The writing is strange, as if you're both intentionally trying to appear different, but not really foreign.
     
  16. Jesper Svensson

    Jesper Svensson Member

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    DR SAA
    You may have skill in the game as you are in your other analyses. How can you see any likehood?
    My English is not native as Beat the Wheel also may be, but we are probablly from different continents.

    I am sure the admin can confirm it via IP address without leave out privacy!
     
  17. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    DR SAA,
    Don't play Sherlock Holmes. Try to put something constructive here, if you can.
     
  18. Jesper Svensson

    Jesper Svensson Member

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    The Wheel has the abillity to be erractic longer than you can stay solvent. You can win 100 of times, the nemisis can hammer enought once.
     
  19. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Noticed that as well, so pretty much stopped reading or replying to posts containing either.
     
  20. Jesper Svensson

    Jesper Svensson Member

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    "Notice" ?? Are you beware you are accusing me using false and double account? The proof "Notice" where is it. The admin of the forum knows that can not be true.

    I demand a apologies from the false assertions, an I have no reason to stay in a forum full of people engaged in writing about his bogey.

    I stay away!!
     

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