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Forex Wave Analysis from InstaForex

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by InstaForex Gertrude, Sep 5, 2015.

  1. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Member

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    Brent: appetite grows while eating

    Growth of the global risk appetite against the background of the de-escalation of the US-Chinese trade conflict has made it possible for oil to climb to the area of three-month highs. Black gold is growing along with global stock indexes in the hope that the end of the trade war will increase global demand. Although OPEC has reduced its growth forecast for this indicator to 1.24 million b/d for 2019, investors believe that the recovery of the economies of the eurozone and China will provide an opportunity for it to expand faster. If we add to this the effectiveness of operations to reduce the cartel's production as well as other producing countries by 1.2 million b/d, it becomes clear why Riyadh allows itself to make loud statements that the allies managed to bring the market to a normal state.

    Leaders bear the greatest burden. Saudi Arabia plans to reduce production to 9.8 million b/d in March, which is 500 thousand b/d more than the country's commitments. Its exports have already declined by 1.3 million b/d in the first half of February. With OPEC's fall in production to 30.81 million b/d in January, the strengthening factor of global risk appetite made it possible for Brent and WTI to play a fifth of their value since the beginning of the year.

    Dynamics of oil and OPEC production

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    Finally, financial managers who previously preferred to take a wait-and-see position actually waited. By the end of the week, by February 12, they had increased their longs in the North Sea variety by 10%, which is the fastest growth rate since August. Shorts reduced by 5.5%. Thus, speculators have become net buyers of Brent at 32 million barrels in equivalent.

    The weakness of the US dollar played a significant role in the rise of oil to three-month highs. Fans of the USD index have been helped for a long time by the desire of central bank competitors of the Fed to adhere to ultra-soft monetary policy, but the progress in Washington and Beijing talks reduced the demand for safe-haven assets, causing a serious blow to the US currency. At the same time, HSBC Holdings warns that if something goes wrong in further negotiations between Washington and Beijing, then black gold will plunge into a wave of sales.

    Indeed, the rise in prices allows American manufacturers to feel at ease. The number of rigs from Baker Hughes rose to 857 in the week to February 15, and the US Energy Information Administration predicts that production in 2020 will reach a record figure of 13 million b/d. Companies registered in the United States are used to hedge risks and the growth of Brent and WTI allows them to increase production even at unprofitable price levels. Sooner or later this circumstance will be felt, however, during at time when the market is in a state of euphoria because of the expectations of the end of the trade war.
    Technically, the breakthrough of resistance at $64.1 per barrel brought the bulls on Brent to an operational space. They were able to develop a correction as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern to 5-0 and are ready to push futures quotes to the level of 50% of the CD wave. It corresponds to $68.4. Brent daily chart

    [​IMG]

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex
     
  2. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Member

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    EUR/USD. What will the minutes of the Fed reveal?

    The minutes of the January Federal Reserve meeting will be published tonight - the so-called "minutes". The results of the regulator's first meeting this year were disappointing for the US dollar. The Fed finally confirmed its policy of slowing down the tightening of monetary policy. In the text of the accompanying statement, as well as during the speech of the Fed chairman, the word "patience" was often mentioned, therefore the market does not expect any "hawkish" notes from the minutes.

    A certain intrigue of today's release remains. The market will first of all evaluate - how monolithic the decision to slow down the rate of rate increase looks. If the number of "doves" will significantly exceed the "hawkish" wing, then the dollar will again be under additional pressure. Yesterday's comments by Loretta Mester (which, by the way, has no voting rights this year) have weakened the greenback throughout the market. This suggests that dollar bulls are still sensitive to the soft statements of members of the Federal Reserve, even though the other central banks of the leading countries of the world have also taken a "defense position". The monetary policy outlook of the Fed is gradually coming to the forefront against the background of the expected breakthrough in the US-China trade negotiations. If Beijing and Washington find a common denominator this week and make a deal before March 1 (or announce it by extending the deadline for additional approvals), the dollar will lose a significant trump card for its growth.

    [​IMG]

    Under these circumstances, the Fed may either increase pressure on the greenback, or become a "saving straw", especially against the background of softening the rhetoric of the ECB and other central banks. It is worth noting that the Fed's report, which will be published today, might provide unexpected support for the US currency. The fact is that the market expects too soft rhetoric from the members of the regulator. If the minutes demonstrates some disagreement within the Committee, the market reaction may disappoint EUR/USD bulls. In my opinion, the dollar can collapse throughout the market only if the regulator hints at a possible pause until the end of this year. And although this option is unlikely, it cannot be ruled out, given the recent speeches of Fed members.

    This is not just about Loretta Mester, who was mentioned above. Today, her position was repeated by one of the most influential members of the regulator - the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams. Moreover, he stated that he did not see the need to raise the rates - only if circumstances of a "shocking" nature emerge. In his opinion, the rate has already reached its neutral level - at least the lower limit of this range.

    This rhetoric is very consonant with the position of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who at the end of last year designated the neutral level range of 2.5% -3.5%, while declaring that the monetary tightening cycle was gradually coming to an end. This year, the US regulator can more clearly articulate its idea: the rate has reached a neutral level, then the Fed will act according to circumstances, responding to incoming data. Although these findings have long been floating in the air, their "fixation" will provoke strong volatility in the market, and this volatility will not be in favor of the dollar. By the way, Williams in today's speech added that the Fed will continue to reduce the volume of the bond portfolio on the balance sheet - according to his estimates, the reduction process may end when the balance drops to one trillion dollars.
    In general, the dynamics of today's trading confirms the fears of investors: the euro/dollar pair froze in a flat, especially against the background of a half-empty economic calendar. Here it is worth recalling that, in addition to the publication of the Fed minutes, the results of the meeting between the British prime minister and the head of the European Commission will be announced. If, despite all the circumstances, they will be able to move the situation from a dead point, the single currency will receive a strong enough support, which will undoubtedly affect the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair.
    Thus, the events of today's evening can either lead the pair to the borders of the 14th figure (with an attempt to test), or return to the area of the 12th figure). Fundamental factors are too unpredictable, so it is almost impossible to talk about the probability of the implementation of a particular scenario.

    [​IMG]

    From a technical point of view, it is important for EUR/USD bulls to stay above 1,1305 (Tenkan-sen line) in order for it to not lose the potential for growth and approach the next resistance level of 1,1390 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). Bears of the pair, in turn, need to consolidate below 1.1270 – in this case, the Ichimoku indicator will form a bearish "Parade of lines" signal, and the price itself will be between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  3. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Member

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    EUR/USD: Weak data on the eurozone will not allow the euro to continue its growth. The minutes of the ECB

    Data on Germany continue to upset investors, creating some pressure on risky assets, including the euro, which also fell against the US dollar in the first half of the day after the release of weak reports on the eurozone economy.

    According to the data, the final consumer price index CPI of Germany in January this year fell by 0.8% compared to December 2018. Compared to January 2018, the index grew by 1.4%. However, the euro fell only slightly against the US dollar at the beginning of the European session, as the data completely coincided with the forecasts of economists.

    A more significant pressure on the EURUSD pair was exerted by the report, which indicated that the preliminary index of PMI supply managers for the German manufacturing sector in February remained below 50 points, indicating a decrease in activity, and amounted to 47.6 points, while it was projected at 49.9 points. Back in January, the above index was 49.7 points.

    This has had a significant impact on the overall performance of the eurozone manufacturing sector. According to the results of surveys of supply managers, the production index of the eurozone fell below 50 points and amounted to 49.2 points in February, indicating a decline in activity.

    Only good preliminary indicators in the service sector, both in Germany and in the eurozone as a whole, have managed to smooth the pressure on the euro.

    According to the report, the preliminary index of PMI supply managers for the German service sector in February was 55.1 points against 49.7 points in January. Economists had forecast PMI services Germany at the level of 52.9 points.

    In the eurozone as a whole, according to IHS Markit, the composite index of supply managers, which consists of an indicator of activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector, rose to 51.4 points in February from 51.0 points in January.

    [​IMG]

    Today, the minutes were published from the January meeting of the European Central Bank, which confirmed the concerns of traders that the regulator may start the LTRO program, which will be aimed at long-term refinancing of the banking system.

    The minutes indicate that the leaders of the ECB at the January meeting discussed new long-term loans for banks, but more accurately everything will be known at the March meeting, when the ECB will revise economic forecasts. The European regulator is confident that potential new lending operations should reflect the objectives of monetary policy in general.

    There were also concerns related to negative factors for the economy, which are only temporary in nature. Special attention was paid to the risks in connection with the exacerbated situation around Brexit.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex
     
  4. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Member

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    Trump gave up the slack

    It seems that Donald Trump will not be able to achieve the desired in negotiations with the Chinese on trade. As usual, last weekend, he reported on his Twitter account that the negotiations were "productive" and he decided to extend the truce after March 1.

    In contrast to the American president, the Chinese side does not so vividly reflect the course of the negotiation process, I can even say it generally shows an enviable restraint of the "heavenly". The absence of any complete information from this side clearly indicates that there is no "productivity" in the negotiation process. Most likely, Trump has to back down and announce the continuation of the truce for this very reason, and he has more than enough reason for this.

    Last year, the active actions of the American president led to a "failure" in trade between the United States and China, and not only with the latter. The desire to solve all the problems by stifling pressure on competitors in world trade led to a slowdown in the growth of the economy of the PRC, a large Europe and the USA, which led to a general slowdown in the growth of the global economy.

    Trump, has not managed to solve the trade problem with China as a whole, and the desire to go to the second presidential term will force him to be more accommodating. Therefore, he will have to soften his position on this sensitive issue.

    Taking this into account, one can expect that optimism with a new force will overwhelm the world markets, which will lead to the continuation of local growth in stock markets, while the US dollar will remain under noticeable pressure. The overall demand for risky assets, as well as the expectation that the Fed will not raise interest rates in the current year and even go to stop reducing the balance, will adversely affect the rate of the US currency. In many ways, the positive theme has already been played on the foreign exchange market. That is why in this situation, we also do not expect a noticeable strong growth in the currencies of competitors, since a truce does not solve all problems, but only pushes them away in time and it's hard to say what all this will result in.
    Forecast of the day:

    The EURUSD pair is in a very narrow range of 1.1220-1.1370 in anticipation of resolving the situation around Brexit. It is likely that it will continue until tomorrow's speeches by Theresa May and Jerome Powell. It seems that there is not enough local weakening of the dollar exchange rate for the further growth of the pair. Stronger drivers are needed, which May and Powell can provide.

    The GBPUSD pair is trading in the range of 1.1260-1.1300, also in anticipation of Theresa May and Jerome Powell speeches.We believe that this range may continue until Tuesday.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex
     
  5. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Member

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    Trading plan for EUR/USD for February 27, 2019

    [​IMG]

    Technical outlook:
    The 4H chart presented for EUR/USD indicates that the single currency pair is approaching resistance soon at the 1.1425 levels as depicted here. We can expect another push higher towards the above, before reversing lower again. With the current wave structure, it seems likely that an impulse is in the making from the 1.1233 lows as highlighted on the above chart. Bulls are expected to push through the 1.142030 zone, probably today, in the next 7-8 hours before bears take control back over a corrective drop towards the 1.1310/20 levels. If the prices move according to the above wave structure, EUR/USD should be poised to hit higher highs in the coming several weeks with the potential price targets such as 1.1500, 1.1650, and 1.1800/20. As an alternative, a drop below 1.1233 and subsequently below the 1.1215 levels could see further bearishness into the 1.1180/90 region before the rally resumes.

    Trading plan:
    1. Aggressive: Long now @ 1.1378 stop at 1.1350 target @ 1.1425
    2. Aggressive: Short @ 1.1425, stop 1.1450/60, target @ 1.1310
    3. Conservative: Long on dips towards @ 1.1310/20
    Good luck!

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  6. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Member

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    Gold got rid of the ballast

    Rebounding from support near two-week lows, gold quickly recovered and rushed to attack. The external background for the precious metal remains favorable, and the short-term correction is due to a partial profit-taking after a long rally and the statement of US trade representative Robert Lighthizer that there are still many issues in relations with China and the deal has not yet been concluded. Let me remind you that the conflict between the two largest economies in the world faithfully served the US dollar in 2018.

    Despite the fact that gold is considered a safe haven asset and a hedge against inflation, it is growing amid the recovery of US stock indices and the slowdown in consumer prices in the United States. In fact, one of the main drivers of the S&P 500 rally is the reduction in the cost of borrowing in real terms. The negative correlation between the stock index and the yield of US Treasury bonds reached its highest levels since 2012, due to the Federal Reserve's desire to pause the process of normalizing monetary policy. 7 years ago, the central bank announced another round of quantitative easing.
    The dynamics of the correlation of the S&P 500 and the yield of US bonds

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    However, the fall in real rates of the US debt market creates favorable conditions not only for the shares, but also for many assets of the commodity market, including gold, oil and copper. Precious metal does not bring interest income to its holders, so it cannot compete with bonds if their yield increases. Currently, it is falling, and investors are actively diversifying their portfolios in favor of XAU/USD.

    The current consolidation of gold is due not only to profit taking by speculators after 9% of the winter rally, but also to the reluctance of the derivatives market to increase the chances of reducing the Federal funds rate in 2019. CME derivatives believe in the end of the normalization cycle, however, in order for them to adopt the idea of easing the Fed's monetary policy, further deterioration in macroeconomic statistics across the United States is necessary. Theoretically, it is very likely, because the traditionally bad weather for this time in the United States, the fading effect of the fiscal stimulus, the negative impact of the dollar's revaluation on exports and GDP, as well as the weakening of external demand due to trade wars draw moderately pessimistic prospects for US indicators. At least in the short-term investment horizon.

    The dollar can recover in the medium-term. The euphoria about the de-escalation of the trade conflict has driven the S&P 500 too high. The rally does not have a solid foundation in the form of improved macroeconomic statistics. According to 65% of more than 90 experts from Reuters, US stock indexes are in danger of falling in the second half of this year. This will have a positive effect on safe-haven assets, including the US dollar.

    Technically, if bulls on gold manage to keep quotes above $1,321 per ounce, the risks of continuing the rally in the direction of the target by 361.8% on the AB=CD pattern will increase.
    Gold daily chart

    [​IMG]

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     
  7. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Member

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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 05, 2019

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    When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Retail Sales m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI. The US will also publish the economic data such as Federal Budget Balance, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, New Home Sales, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1392.
    Strong Resistance: 1.1385.
    Original Resistance: 1.1374.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1363.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1336.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1309.
    Original Support: 1.1298.
    Strong Support: 1.1287.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1280.

    Analysis are provided by InstaForex
     

  8. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Member

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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Mar 11, 2019

    [​IMG]

    When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German Trade Balance and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Business Inventories m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Core Retail Sales m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1280.
    Strong Resistance:1.1274.
    Original Resistance: 1.1263.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1252.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1226.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1200.
    Original Support: 1.1189.
    Strong Support: 1.1178.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1172.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
     

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