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Baccarat What are your pre-determined bet selections and the trigger you wait for before placing your bets?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jon Wick, Sep 8, 2021.

  1. Jon Wick

    Jon Wick Member

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    Would you mind sharing what your pre-determined bet selections are and the trigger you wait for before placing your bets. Your feedback would be greatly appreciated and thank you in advance.

    Stay blessed all,

    Mr. Wick
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2021
    Junket King likes this.
  2. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    I've played, used what I refer to as Templates (fixed betting) for the last decade or so. Used them all, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12 columns, running 2,3,4 bet options at the same time. Let's say I've plenty of table experience.

    As each hand is random, totally unpredictable, I consider it a waste of mental energy stirring at the tote board after every hand, as the majority of players do, what does that achieve, help you guess better, spot a trend which may have ended?

    I'd rather focus all my energy on things which I can control. Such as staying in control, determining how much to bet next, what if I I now hit a series of losses, telling myself I'm better than this when things start to go south, splitting Labby strings on the fly and fast. Losing decisions don't cost the player, rather it's the bet amounts, all bet selections lose, you need to find one that doesn't lose often, then it basically all money management.

    At the mo, I'm using columns of 7's, my fixed bet selection is already posted on the forum, if could be in the thread "online shoes" I'm not sure.
     
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  3. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    The shrewd cat is wagerin on bankers only, fulls stop, hey hey.
     
  4. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    Please explain?
     
  5. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    Last time i checked the house edge was built in to banker only
     
  6. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    If you think that each hand is random, totally unpredictable, how can you focus on things that you can control?
    It's a total contradiction in terms.
    No MM could control the game fluctuations.

    On the other end, about the (worthless, in your words) bet selection topic you write 'you need to find one that doesn't lose often', thus you're implying that those situations are not so randomly then unbeatable placed, right?

    as.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2021
  7. Ezmark

    Ezmark Member

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    Greetings,
    Once there was this Old Trapper with a line of mules traveling in the Hill Country.
    He always traded with an Old Indian Chief. He knew the Indian Chief as being a very shrewd trader for a few years now . A difficult man to bargain with.

    On this occasion as Trapper arrived in the camp and after the usual greetings they got down to business. The Chief made a proposition. The Cheif says Old Man , his affectionate name for the Old Trapper. I will make you a wager with you for all my fur pelts if Im wrong... Or all your mules if I'm right.
    The Old Trapper says let's hear it...

    The Old Chief says I will wager that I can bend my war staff with only one hand.

    The Old Trapper could see that it was a strong staff possibly as much as an inch and a half thick. And with only one hand this will be a very difficult task...Old Trapper said," I'll take that wager ."

    So the Old Indian Chief rises from his blanket walked over to the nearby stream and extends his staff and arms over the water and talks in his native tougue which the Old Trapper did not understand.

    Then the Old Chief lowers his staff into the water and looked over at the Old Trapper and says , "as you can see my war staff is bent. "
     
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  8. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I'll explain. LOL. It's a losing proposition without a trigger. And the trigger is just a guess. That's the part he leaves out.

    He's been gaslighting everybody on the Forum for a year now with the same old BS with his virtual play money.
     
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  9. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    ?

    I control my emotions, I control when and how much I bet. When I place a bet any bet, or a series of bets, I've no idea if they will be all losing propositions, if I'll snare a winning bet, I hope I'll win, but the stark reality is, I don't know. Non-correlated outcomes are unpredictable, sod all is due.

    It can to certain degree, all depends how bad things get, hence why you need a strong BS.

    Not really, of course they are random. Here is an example (*this is just an example only and not a viable mode of play), if you take any 8 hand sequence and bet against this pattern, the mathematical odds of that pattern occurring are 256 to 1, however each and every bet is 50-50, even if it comes to the 8th bet having lost 7 previous bets, it's still 50% (disregarding ties).

    If you take a sample of say 500 shoes, you will see this specific pattern of 8, XX times, and no doubt the number of winning v's losing bets will be within expectation with an overall negative expectation (it goes without saying, it's a bit silly to risk 8 bets to win 1).

    Mark off and count how many times your specific 8 hand pattern occurs, now re-evaluate re-count and see how many times your nemesis pattern occurs back to back, note XX vs X, a huge reduction!! (not to be confused with betting any 8 hand pattern won't adjacently repeat).

    *Also note, no improvement in winning vs losing bets. However in a given series of bets, the failure vs success count has drastically improved. Once the failure vs success is manageable, then a flexible negative progression takes care of the rest. I use the term flexible because you simply don't know what might happen, but when it does, you should have a degree of confidence from your testing, that it shouldn't happen too often within any given session, then again you never know.
     
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  10. Ezmark

    Ezmark Member

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    Greetings,
    The thread is pre-determined bet selection and the trigger that you wait for.

    In the story, The Old Chief knew the pre-determined result before he made the wager with Old Trapper.

    The Old Cheif could control the texture of the shaft by using the water to give the illusion, or the reality, that his war staff was bent .

    So the Two Lessons to be learned in this story is, number one...Being able to control the texture made the pre-determined selection a possibility... And number two is, Never make a wager against an Old Indian Chief for all your mules.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2021
  11. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    It might not be, depending on one's definition of "random". For me it would be a contradiction, as my definition of "random" does not even require the use of words like "totally" or phrases such as "totally unpredictable" to express these concepts. If I say something is random, I am saying it is impossible to predict beyond probabilistic reasoning. You can know a coin has a 50/50 chance of coming up heads or tails. You cannot know the result of the next flip.

    My definition of "random" is NOT the only one.

    I had a very nice chat with Gizmotron the other day about just this topic. His definition of "random" does not preclude future prediction...with the addendum, "If I understood him correctly". It is not inconceivable that I did not.

    When people have divergent definitions for words, complete mutual understanding is often impossible. Language structures our brains. It often limits the concepts we can imagine and entertain. We think in words and if our words mean different things, we think differently.

    In science this is known as the "Sapir Worf Hypothesis".
     
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  12. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I can't believe I'm playing devil's advocate here, but I am. (Because I want to understand this better)

    Isn't the assumption that his "guess" is an informed guess, with better than wild ass guess probability?

    There are levels of guessing. In fact other languages use different words to express those levels. Turkish & Russian are two modern languages with built in epistemic responsibility for verbs. Ancient Greek is another.
     
  13. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    I like your definition.
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2021
  14. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    The fact that in appropriate circumstances it's difficult to predict something doesn't mean it's impossible.
    And in my opinion only non random features of some kind could help us to solve the problem.
     
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  15. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Hypothetically Baccarat results aren't really random are they? Baccarat results aren't like a coin flip, because which side wins is already known.

    The cards are shuffled, sorted and stacked, so theoretically any next hand is already pre-determined (unlike an instantaneous coin flip), it's unfortunate that you the gambling man < "Sapir Worf Hypothesis", don't know the order of the cards.
     
  16. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Let's take that further then. Probabilistic Reasoning can never tell you when a win streak will start, how long it will last, and when it will end with any measurable degree of certainty.

    It has always been my point to accept this as true and to search for something else other than probabilistic reasoning to gain the upper hand. So I researched and codified a construct regarding the characteristics of random sequences. This alone was still not enough. I had to put it all behind a sense of blinders in order to filter out extraneous and worthless information. The construct on its own is nearly worthless. It just gives you a guess without any supporting value toward a knowledge of a confirmation of awareness. So it is dependent on timing as well as the quality of effectiveness combined to form a kind of coincidental change variable. At that point the useless becomes a real tangible commodity. Yet most people can never see this. It is my belief that someday there will be mathematical formulas and algorithms that not only use this but also confirm it.

    At that point I will then be a happy mathZombie.
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2021
  17. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Once again we must agree to agree. If it were truly random (my definition) it would not be predictable. I just read a whole book on shuffle tracking and can confirm that where cards are concerned it is NOT random. Depending on the shuffle it is extremely disordered and hard to predict. I cannot rule out the possibility or plausibility of prediction.

    I would add one thing. The system one is using for prediction must have a clear path of causation.

    In other words: If you are tracking favorable cards through the shuffle and betting big when the shoe hits your plug, then I can at least understand why this might work.

    If you are altering your bet based on whether or not you lost the last hand--I cannot see or understand the correlation.

    I want to be clear about this...I do not live in a world where I am always right and cannot accept new and divergent opinions. All I'm saying is "I can't understand why who won or lost the last hand makes any difference to the next hand."

    I personally used to count for the tie in baccarat and made some small money playing for it. When the deck is rich in 8's & 9's and 10's the tie becomes positive. What utterly perplexes me is these systems that don't track the cards in the deck or which cards are going to come up next.

    I feel like most baccarat systems try to predict the future by looking at the past, except they look in the wrong place. Like trying to calculate global warming depending on the number of pirates in the world. (Pastafarian reference)

    I could be wrong.
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2021
  18. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    You are absolutely correct, Probabilistic Reasoning can never tell you when a win streak will start, or how long it will last. Probabilistic Reasoning basically disavows the existence of win streaks altogether. It says that when you preform trials in any random event streaks will occur. However, this in no way alters the fixed probabilities. Probabilistic Reasoning actually allows you to predict how frequently streaks should occur.

    Sadly, "how frequently", is not the same thing as "when".

    If you can predict a streak before it happens then it's not hard to understand your success. I would honestly love to know how that's done. (I'll read the visual dexterity section tomorrow)
     
  19. redietz

    redietz Well-Known Member

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    Old Wise Jungle Saying: Impressive Nonsense Is Still Just Nonsense.

    Here in the jungle, the tiger doesn't care how cleverly you describe evading him while he's eating you. What determines reality is the meal.
     
  20. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    to paraphrase my old friend Lani who programmed many bets selections for me; even if it's not random you still have to predict the outcome to win.

    Cannot track the shuffle without a handheld game. But even if you could it's not much help in baccarat except as you mentioned maybe the tie bet. And the reason is because a high count doesn't change the odds for either player or bank very much.

    Yes, in baccarat we are looking at the past to predict the future because we know that there are statistical limitations to certain patterns appearing. A better analogy then the one you put forth above would be to compare it to Blackjack. Suppose in blackjack there was a side bet where when could bet for or against the occurrence of 2 card 21? We know that would be an easy winning bet because we know the number of times 2 card 21 occurs.

    So it's the same in baccarat and one could choose any one of a number of patterns and be able to figure out the percentage of times that that pattern hits within say 100 decisions or within one 80 hand shoe for instance.

    So to win you try to match your betting style with the frequency of expectation. I call that money management.
     

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