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Baccarat What constitutes a trend?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Craps, Mar 24, 2021.

  1. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    Are there Trends in Baccarat? Binary outcome games will create a lot of trends but how we interpret them is the subject of this thread.
    My take on this is you have to look at each starting B or P to be complete whether they are single or more than single to constitute a trend.
    B no trend
    BB no trend because terrible 2s is possible.
    BBB is a run. The Asians call it got 3 got 4
    BP no trend because P could run
    BPB is a chop
    BBPP will be Terrible 2s in my book.

    The trends that causes a lot of losses are 1 then 2 or 2 then 1. Stay away.
    Don't even try catch them.
    I am not too crazy about whether the previous B or P occurrence have a second or not. This has make me lose too much $$_.
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2021
  2. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    I think a trend can be a BPBP chop for a while (what constitutes a while though?) or BBPPBBPP or BBBB or PPPP. It could also be said that a trend is a tendency to have more chops than streaks in a shoe or more streaks than chops.

    I have some ideas on how you capitalize and when you should stop. Maybe take these in three hand sets.

    BPB or PBP is a chop
    BBB PPP or PPB BBP could be considered streaky.

    Count how many of them are going to determine your “trend”

    For instance, consider the following set of results:

    BPPPPPBBBBRBBBBBPPBPBPP

    Your first three hands are BPP: Streak 1, Chop 0
    Add another hand: take out the first hand of B to get PPP: Streak 2, Chop 0

    You can do this for as comfortable as you like but at this point, a streak is likely for the next hand (and it does win).

    The great thing about this is that at this point you are looking for a streak but after each hand, this trend can reverse and when it starts changing (chops overtake streaks), then you’ll be on it.
     
  3. gr8player

    gr8player Member

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    What constitutes a trend? Ahh, my friends, that's the "million dollar" question.

    I'm a confirmed trender. Have been for years and years.

    Pardon my indulgence as I relate this story:

    You may recall my posting that I used to play with a "playing partner" many years ago. We were doing so well (at one point winning over 30 consecutive sessions with wins at least $1,000 per) until my "playing partner" began to start "feeling his oats". He felt impervious to any calamity at the bac tables, and began making bets on each and every set of decisions that he felt was "trending".

    Now, let me be very clear: I, as an experienced trender, can find an "excuse", yes, even a "trending excuse", to bet on almost every hand dealt out of the shoe. Well, that became my "playing partner's" downfall. He found a reason to bet almost every hand dealt.

    Out the window went the very necessary patience and discipline to await the correct table conditions that brought us so much earlier success. So much so that I simply had to part ways with him. Needless to say, while I've continued to play bac on a weekly basis for all these years, he hasn't seen a baccarat table in at least 15 years. It got to him to the point that he just couldn't take the pressure of it all any longer.

    That, my friends, is the main reason many players shy away from any sort of trending. It becomes too difficult and too taxing on their psyches to attempt to "stay ahead" of the shoe; and, on the contrary, become consumed by it all. You see, with trend play, the pressure is on you to make the correct decisions; it becomes almost entirely a very subjective game because all of your betting decisions are entirely based upon how YOU are interpreting the current shoe's results.

    Now, can that be a cause for frustration? Of course it can....IF you allow it so. So what can be done to curtail that frustration? Selective trending. Tailoring your plays (read: bets) to a select few trends.

    We've all heard the expression: You're a jack-of-all-trades BUT a master of none. At bac, it's imperative to "master" a few trends. Doing so will improve your outlook simply by limiting the frustration and allowing you to gain so much more confidence in yourself and your play.

    By tailoring your play to just a few proven trends (read: "proven trends" are trends that you are able to see, and bet on, at the earliest of their appearance) you will then get very familiar with their accompanying statistics, such as longest and/or shortest winning and losing streaks along with their inherent "variance" stats as well. Doing so will virtually eradicate any very unnecessary and disheartening frustration.

    Your long term success then just becomes a matter of your will, your patience, and your discipline to stay the course and be confident as to when and how to bet and, frankly, just as importantly (if not even more so) when NOT to bet. Now you're letting the game come to you (it most often will if you're patient and disciplined enough to await it) as opposed to you "chasing the game". You can't win that chase, because the dealer has a boatload more chips in his rack than you have in front of you....they'll get the better of that game each and every time.

    So, we go back to the OP's original question: What constitutes a trend? My answer: A certain set of current decisions in any portion of the shoe that I, myself, am able to recognize at their earliest formation so that I can make an educated and informed wager. Notice I used the phrase "certain set of current decisions"....these are those of my "preferred trends", trends with which I am totally familiar and confident in.

    Only then, and ONLY THEN, will I put any of my chips within the circle. And, either win or lose, I already know my response.

    Do you?

    Take care and stay well, all.
     
    Lungyeh and gizmotron like this.
  4. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Single on the weak side.

    That's just one form of a trend.

    Strong side weak side over 20 hands.

    Do you think you might be able to cobble together at least one net win from that?

    Now get an education. There are hundreds of possible, very good trends. It really pays to know.
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2021
  5. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    A trend is anything you want it to be. :)
     
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  6. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    That is the best description of a trend I have ever seen on the forums in the past 17 years.
     
  7. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    The john-O is right the trendings is absolute bollocks. Everyone is the hero and cool guy when they identify the trends after a facts. And how cats gonna trend at better than 50 percents with players wager when players gonna pop less than 50 percents? Trendings, patterns capturing is horses and buggy thinkings and am shocked cats still kickin this rubbishes around, like it's still 2006 or somethings, sheesh, hey hey.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.

  8. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I could not be more happy that you reject it. I hope that many people follow you. Thanks for your service.
     
  9. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    Guys. We need to make a decision to bet. A reason to bet. We are not talking about wins or losses. I like the idea gr8 player suggested that is be selective of trends that works best for you. That is being defensive and let the offense play out whether they score or not. Do not manufacture trends as soon as a loss occurs is a must.
     
  10. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    Don't make it sound like Banker is outnumbering Player by a mile.
     
  11. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei Active Member

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    I can't get my win rate over 50% if I don't bet on players also.
    But to each his own.
     
  12. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Your win rate doesn't matter. Why even try to change that. What you want to change is the amounts of your bets at optimal times. If you have no clue on how to do that I would suggest that you find a way to learn how.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2021
  13. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

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    There are Lucky people who claimed to have skill in bet selection does over 50%. For you and myself where we are not that lucky or skillful, we had to use probability meaning a progression to win. Studying trends become important for us.
     
  14. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Gentlemen of all genres, your preferred trend, no trend, random bets will win some of the time and lose some of the time. Not one way is superior to another ALL the time. Win when in your Hot Phase, Lose when in your Shar Chi Phase and float along when you are in the Neutral Phase.

    Walking out a winner is all in the money management (MM).

    Peace.
     

  15. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    It can't be stated any simpler than that. If you know how to lose with proper MM then you will be fine. The math world will still be fine too.

    If you reject the common phases of randomness then you will be forced to use a worse method to deal with the very thing that you have chosen not to consider. For those of you that must wear a Spandex savior suit and ride in on a white horse I congratulate them the most. They are the furthest away from seeing that it can work. It takes work and effort to become aware of the current occurring conditions. It takes self control over your human emotions and brain chemistry. Your mind must remain in a state of focused concentration. Your knowledge of expectations must be grounded in experience. These are not magical thinking axioms or rhetorical complexities to pull the wool over anyone's eyes. They are the products of proper training and preparedness.

    This is when the mathNazies try to explain that what I just said here was gibberish. It makes no sense to argue with them. Like ND said a few days ago, they have painted themselves into a corner.
     
  16. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    You're funny! Don't you get tired of beating that old drum. Is JohnO your guru now? I hope you gave him the secret sauce of your holy grail. I empathize with your frustration though. Must be difficult finally discovering the holy grail of Baccarat and not being able to tell anyone or even play it for real money, huh? Be patient, the snow will melt up there and the casinos will open. Maybe just get out of the apartment and take a walk? Chill!
     
  17. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    since we are talking about trends we all know this one thing for sure. they need to exist long enough so we can bet them and give us a return on our investment. a great book "trend following" explain after speaking to the best trend followers in the history that there is only one way to know if you are right or wrong about staying in your position.
    you have to follow the money you put in. that simple fact take away a lot of pressure from a player.
    it just tells the truth, no opinions or trends manufactured that can hurt you.
    either your money or units are heading in the right direction or it doesn't.
    you can look at a chart and see 18 reds on one side and get in only to see it going the other side but your losses wont be much because your money will tell you its not the right time, or the other way around. so following price movement is the best way to follow trends.
    it does not lie and always tells the truth.
    trends worth playing have to be in existence long enough to compound some small wins in my opinion or they are "Mirages" in a desert where you never find any water.
    God bless
    R.
     
  18. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    So I have a research subject just to consider. It would end up in being definitive proof.

    You can make up considerations for identifying trends. One would be that you will consider the size of trends currently happening. You would look for the appearance of set sizes or the lack of any noticeable sizes. A computer could be taught to do this. Based on conditions where sizes are occurring, if you see say trends in the size of 4's as a trend swarm, you only bet one time after seeing 3's. Now based just on this one characteristic you have the computer wait until it finds a stretch of similar sizes and you check what the real average of wins over losses of that 4th try bet results in. That would be real data on trends in favorable conditions. I'll bet nobody has ever done that kind of research. You could do the same for singles on the weak side. For that matter you could have hundreds of trend types to research. It just takes brains.
     
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  19. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    For trend betting only a progression which cannot bite you is required.
     
  20. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    ND, once again stating the obvious! :)
     

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