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TurboGenius What you need for proof

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Nov 28, 2021.

?

Will you take this challenge ???

Poll closed Dec 5, 2021.
  1. Of course I will, I like shiny things and talking to my french fries

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. No......

    3 vote(s)
    100.0%
  3. I don't know.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Occupation:
    Self proclaimed Theoretical Philosopher
    Location:
    Near Atlantic City New Jersey
    I'm sorry in advance.
    Whatever idea, method or system you have/use/test must achieve the
    following results to be considered a winning system....

    #1
    https://easy.vegas/gambling/betting-system-challenge
    With a grand prize of....$30,000.00 and prominent ad placement on a website.
    (200,000 x 20) = 4,000,000 spins !

    #2
    https://www.roulettephysics.com/100k-challenge/
    With a grand prize of....$100,000.00
    4 MILLION spins again!!!!!!!! There's something about 4 million spins I guess. lol roflmao

    #3
    https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/challenge/
    With a grand prize of.....$20,000.00 but I think this challenge has expired sadly.
    A BILLION SPINS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    =====================================================================

    So there you have it. No need to ask how to prove your system works.
    $150k in your pocket and 1,008,000,000 spins later you too can prove
    something works.
    Hey, that's $0.000148809524 per spin profit you are going for - nothing
    to sneeze at.
    Not only will you prove your stupid system works - you will have gained
    attention and that $0.0001 per spin.

    I say we go for it ! Like the naysayers say (wow say that fast ((see what I did there ?))
    prove it once and for all, don't be a chicken and take the challenge(s).
    Win 1 for the team 0.0001 for the team.

    Thanks for reading.


    I said sorry already.
    I'm also sorry for the poll...
    Much like voting for Joe Biden - you can vote as many times as you want.
     
    Mako likes this.
  2. Mako

    Mako Well-Known Member

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    Well put.
     
    TurboGenius likes this.
  3. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Occupation:
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    Location:
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    AND I can predict right now that none of those 1,008,000,000 spins have
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1 among them.

    What say you @Benas , @Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone ?
    Think any of those 1.8 billion spins have 100 1's in a row ?
    It's ok, you don't have to answer.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2021
    Ordinary_people likes this.
  4. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    You started to like big numbers ? What practical value in that ? All what you want to show with 1,008,000,000 is possible to show with 100, or maybe with 10.
    But if you will post chart with 200 spins and will say that it prove something, then - no , first only chart prove nothing, we must know what is in it and how that was achieved. And second if that are some results which can be random and can be not random , but results of your thinking then that is only your words and you can be right or not . To see that we need more tests or results...
    But if you show wheel with 3 numbers at all and payment 4 for 1 winer. Absolutelly not need to do thousand test that understand what is what . We can do simple calculation and see that such wheel gave us huge edge. Can you fast say which is that edge 50%, 33% or 25% :)? Or something other ?
    So when you post charts of results - readers not know what is in them and from what wheel they are reached - that is reason why they say to you, that what you post is some individual case of many possibilities and because of that nothing prove !

    As you maybe understand "Think" here is bad word...you can ask guess or calculate in this case...:)
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2021
  5. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    Turbo, I still think you should take Michael Bluejay's challenge. As he suggested in the other thread, use one of your worst performing systems. You'd smash it even with that because it only needs to make a profit overall (winning in at least 11 out of the 20 sessions), and not even a profit which would make the system worth using. I think you mentioned some time ago that your "best" system has an edge of 18%? Even with an edge of 0.5% you would win easily. You said 30k isn't very much. Well, maybe not for you but it's more than 6 months salary for most in the U.S. and for many other nations it would be a fortune. Even though you're not a seller I think he'd make an exception in your case.

    Or are you perhaps...?



    lol, you might regret starting this thread.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2021
  6. Naughty but nice

    Naughty but nice Well-Known Member

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    lol, you might regret starting this thread.
    Yes another 80pages in 24 hours of wasted time.
     
  7. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    It's an interesting question. Suppose you insert a sequence of 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 into a set of spins. How many spins would you need in order for the spins to pass a randomness test? a billion? 5 billion? 10 billion? or how about the sequence 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10? or 2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16? those are also non-random, apparently. According to the mathematicians "global" randomness doesn't exclude such sequences as being random. We just think they don't look random enough to be "really" random, but randomness also includes seemingly non-random patterns. Tests show that the "random" sequences people make up would actually fail the randomness tests. And what about Gizmo's "elegant patterns"?
     

  8. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Correct. The human brain is terrible at picking things at random.
    That's why we have a roulette wheel that picks the numbers - pretty close to random at least.
    And we can test that people are bad at picking things randomly, we can also
    test that a wheel is or isn't outputting random.
    So without going in circles we can say that a wheel can either be producing random or
    non random just by looking at the data. True ?
    If it's non-random then there is a bias that Saint Sir Anyone exploits.
    So you can't also tell me in the same sentence that "random" means anything can happen.
    If the testing software the casino uses shows 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
    do they "know it's not random and know they have a problem" or "'eh that's fine, it happens....."
    Does Benas walk up and say "Nothing wrong here, that's what random does....." and they
    ignore it ? What if it's not 1,1,1,1, and instead opposite sides of the wheel showing well past
    normal... is there a bias ? Or do you just shrug it off as "anything can happen"
    Random has a definition. We can know if something is outputting random or not.
    This leads us to random having limits.
    What if the challenge is reversed ????
    Say I offer to pay him $30,000 if I can run off 4 million rng spins and get 100 1's in a row ?
    Hell.....ANY number 100 times in a row. I've just made it easier for anyone to win.
    If it doesn't happen, I get #30k lol
    AND

    If what's impossible happens I also might want to add an additional 4 million spins
    and ANY number can appear 100 times in a row in that test - then I would pay.

    Please tell me how absurd that sounds and no one with a math book would play
    that challenge.
    Why not ? It can happen right ?
     
    thereddiamanthe likes this.
  9. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I'm mocking the absurd amount of spins "required" to prove a system works or not.
    It doesn't take that many spins to know once you know the details of a system.
     
    TwoUp likes this.
  10. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    Sure, but we - not know these details !
     
  11. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    Turbo - you simply mix many things in one and then turn as is good for you .
    All that talk started from if sequence is random or not !!!
    And you claim that sequence 111 is not random but sequence 132 is random ! From this we started all talk , which is about nothing as now I understand. With this - you simply create place for empty talks.
    Sequence cant be random or not random it is as it is - imagine that - all possible sequences are writed on cards - you randomly select one card and find on it ... O God... 11111...if you will choose another card - you will find maybe 0000 , or 5934... what is difference what you found ??
    Sequence is result of something, but not reason that wheel or something generate randomly or not !
    Is that so hard to understand - you cant mix two thinngs which are absolutely without relationship !
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2021
  12. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    Nobody is making the argument that we will see 1111111111 or that it's random, taken in isolation. Nevertheless it's a fact that 1,34,2,17,23,5,21,12,29,2 has the same probability. Your chi-square test showed that 1111... failed that specific goodness-of-fit test, which is what you would expect. "Random has limits" is true if you mean that random outcomes conform to some distribution or other, but that applies to any data whatsoever; you can't have a sample of data which is "shapeless" with no defining characteristics, so "random has limits" is really nothing but a truism.

    "Random has limits which can be exploited", on other hand, seems like an oxymoron, at least if the exploitation means somehow predicting what's going to come next in a random stream.

    How many spins do you think should be used? I hope you would agree that you need at least as many as it's possible to win over when betting randomly. And if a system has a real edge, it should continue to win no matter how many spins you throw at it, shouldn't it? If the apparent edge disappears it means you don't have a winning system. And you're assuming that "more spins" is always a bad idea for testing systems, or unnecessary, but if the edge is very small it may not be evident over a small sample.

    That's true. It's easy to know when a system doesn't work. But if you believe it does, how would you know it without testing over a large number of spins? Maths and logic can't help, because they already show that systems CAN'T work.
     
  13. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    Truth is, yes a 100 1's will happen eventually, When? Every x amount of spins on average. Yes it might take a gazillion years. Or it might be the next 100 spins.

    What will happen if this happens in REAL LIFE like you said.

    Ofcourse the casino will close the table because their software (What is programmed to test the wheel against much much much shorter spin intervals) Gives a red signal that the wheel produces non random behaviour.

    They take the wheel apart and test. And found out nothing is wrong with the wheel. Put it back together and will open the table again.

    See the casino uses the software, and the software tells there MIGHT be something wrong with the wheel. :)

    The software is programmed by humans with certain variables. Everything outside THEIR variables is deemed NOT random. But that doesnt make it so...
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2021
    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone likes this.
  14. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Again, we're talking roulette here, not theoretical modelling, & as I mentioned the safe-switches of various types & forns which are built-in into the reality, not modelling theoretically.

    So why not stop hanging on such/drop 'useless' things & focus on what is + what works in the context of what is. Makes sense?!

    Makes great business sense.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2021

  15. Denzie

    Denzie Active Member

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    Lmao...it's like giving a billionaire a couple grand for his ATM code....:banghead:
     
    thereddiamanthe likes this.
  16. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    It's not just terrible you can't do it at all. We can't do it because we don't really know what random is even though we're looking right at it. It's why I can tell the difference between an RNG's random and a real wheels random. The RNG just doesn't look right but I don't know why. No matter how hard you try you cannot mimic true random results. Even a computer can't do it. All it can produce is pseudo-random which is good enough for use in a casino. The numbers they produce at random.org are even more true random than those on a roulette wheel. I can play the random.org numbers okay but there is something different about it. It's like if a roulette wheel had 100 pockets the random would look differently then it does with 37 or 38 pockets.
     
  17. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    I think it would be more useful to look at the whole picture, the betting system(s), sessions, bankroll management, loss recovery, and unit size vs risk/resiliency considerations.

    I'd say if you can demonstrate an approach that can yield an ending balance 1000 times your starting balance, then that's equivalent to turning $1k to $100k and is not insignificant and meaningful to most people.

    If you can repeat that enough times to obtain a final balance 10,000 times your starting balance then it's practical enough for turning $1k to $1mil.

    The intent is not testing just one small piece but all the pieces working together as a cohesive system.
     

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