Casino Why Our Systems Fail?!

Why Our Systems Fail?!


Respected Gentlemen,
Out of tens of thousand system devised,
everyone agreed that they will lose, sooner or later.

Lets debate.
U see, we lose because,
our chosen strategy, system,etc,

1]cant sustain the long streaks of losses,

2] too little wins in the smack of losing streaks!

But seems that people avoid discussing this topic...


I always ponder this question, and read many quotes,
about why we lose in gambling , though we thought we have a sturdy system.

Below a few quotes from respected members, of various forums.

Please add yours or that u think worth to add in, and we may debate to seek the answer.

=========================
below are some quotes I think related to why we lose at the casino...
please add yours ...
and see whether could focus toward an agreeable solution, to win ...


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Let me save you a lot of time. No matter how low you get the ratio between wins and losses to reach a new profit, it's not enough. You can get pretty deep in the hole between some hits on a [bet] and even further when you need more than a few hits close together to pull out.
quote by GLC.
==========================

"In short, instead of counting your profit, try to identify and understand what is the worst spin sequence that can ruin your system. This is much more useful information."
quote by KAV
=============================
we need to focus on essential betting events as opposed to just spins in order to demonstrate the integrity of a system.
quote by Reyth
======================
The number of spins doesn't really matter if they are not related to the "betting opportunities" of the system. It is the number of times that would call for betting that counts. In other words it is the number of triggers that has to be taken into consideration, rather than pure spins.
quote by Palestis
=====================================

"The only flaw in all progressions devised so far, is one: They are meant for one type of variance only and they ignore the impact of house edge and variance in the long run."
"Wins and losses may cluster in any manner. In a random game, it is beyond your control so be prepared to face them".
"...that is the one and only trouble in a game of chance. Wins and losses may cluster in any manner. In a random game, it is beyond your control so be prepared to face them."
quote by Albalaha.
============================
The FLAW of every well-known bet-selection, and progression,
is they cant withstand the ASSAULT of losing streaks,
or too little win, in between the streak.

"..we cant predict what will happen,
and cant control what will happen,

Thus we need to expect firsthand,
what will happen, and prepare to handle them,
when they happen.

But HOW to handle them , is the million dollar question".
quote by P.A

===========================
"The whole point is to find a way to control your losses. If you do that the wins will take control of themselves".
"Probability, HE, and variance don't 'strike'. They aren't sitting around the corner waiting to pounce on you, how silly. You don't understand the game at all. Probability IS the game of roulette. The house edge applies to every single bet you make. Variance is the natural up and down and in and out of any betting system. These things are not your enemy, they are just the game playing out like it's supposed to. Your job is to find a bet selection that smoothly plays the ins and outs and lets you win more than you lose. Looking at past results is one way to do this. Figure out what they're telling you".
quote by Ekaps
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please post yours here...
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3] The house edge is to high. When the casino degrades the paytables and increased the house edge, there really is no hope of ever beating the house. 6:5 blackjack is a great example of a too high house edge to overcome, as is 98% return rate for Video Poker, you will never beat the house less than that return rate.

4] Sometimes the house cheats. Bad dice and missing face cards from a shoe, are typical means that the house cheats. Other means is when they delete points, degrade comps that you cont on as part of your needs, or simply as is most common now make it a higher dollar amount in per point.

5] You don't play high enough to get the good games. Sadly, this is starting to become the case these days at most casinos. To get the good games where you have a shot at winning you have to play at a much higher level.

 

Hi Mark V,
Thanks for yr post.

But someone says,
if u delete, say the zero from the old real spins of roulette data,
or fair payout for baccarat, without the commission, or the 6 penalty,
and give someone to bet, thy still cant win.

Many had test, and admit the EDGE,
not the cause, for losing.

think about that.

 

Those cursing the house edge alone for losses in random gambling can not claim to win in a no zero or 1:36 payout game either. It is the variance that is the main evil and not the house edge. House edge merely helps casinos, variance kills players.

 

variance kills players.
variance kills players.???
variance kills players.!!!

let see how many want to debate this statement.
But Gentlemen,
we all all gentleman.
Puhleeez,
dont mud-slinging,
All the beautiful ladies,
waiting to LOL, and giggling,
to see another comedy here?!

 

You only see variance when you have a bad betting system. When you have a good one, you hardly notice it. Blame yourself, not variance. Having the right betting system is like riding in a car with good shock absorbers. You hardly notice the bumpy road.

 

There's nothing to debate. Variance kills you in BJ because you have such a small advantage over the house if you count cards. The larger your advantage, the smaller the variance. Find a strategy that gives you a higher advantage in whatever your game is.

You spend so much time worrying and worrying about all the negatives, it's no wonder you have no time left to spend to improve your game. Start out by assuming everything you've been told that you can't do is wrong. You will be surprised at what you might find.

 

6] Boring times. Players seeking action often risk to much by creating a high volatile situation for themselves. For what might have been an Advantage Play situation for them now has turned in to a bankroll depleting situation.

 

People often start with the false premise that they have a winning system and if it wasnt for the long losing streaks,,,they would be successful. That is just silly. By definition then...it would be a losing system.
Another downfall is the accounting, where someone will drive to a casino for an hour each way, win 50 dollars and declare they are winners of 50 dollars. Or they lose 50 dollars and declare they broke even due to a couple free meals.
When the end of the year comes ......actual bank accounts tell a different story because expenses are real. Expenses that seem trivial all add up to something substantial And value of comps rarely add much to the bank account as far as treating gambling like a business.
The casino can give you a 1000 dollar mega suite for the night.....but if you lost 500 dollars at craps....you dont have a net increase of 500 in your bank account. But some gamblers in their mind convince themselves on the ride home that they came out ahead.

the phrase "i just about broke even" is the gamblers psychological security blanket that covers up loses in their mind.

A losing system, coupled with poor accounting practices lead to a depleted bank account by years end.

 

Any REAL AP method or system has to mathematically add up to over 100% This can be done with Video Poker where we know the return rate with optimal play and how many points per dollar we get. Slots are a bit more difficult, because we don't know the exact return rate for every slot machine, though it is possible to have AP with slots using point multipliers, free play, and other promotions that the casino may have that could possibly push the return rate over 100% using cash back for points.

Card Counting and blackjack is the sort of well known Table Game AP method widely known, though today it is near difficult to implement. Hole card spotting is currently what the AP players are are looking for with the carnival games. By spotting the hole card the player can get up to an 24% advantage over the casino.

Casino promotions like 20% rebate on losses, free Ace, match bets, and such can give you the advantage for those plays as well. Just make sure you bet enough to make those plays worth while.

A negative progression Martingale method is the most common system used with table games. I personally know guys who use this every day in Las Vegas and live quite well in a nice Las Vegas home, driving nice cars, and are not lacking or wanting for much of anything. The criticism is that eventually martingale will take you down a devastating loss, and it could if you let it. This criticism assumes you will be playing at the same table with the same cards and with in the same odds pattern though losing streaks as well as winning streaks. Though most players who play like this are not around long enough at any table to let the odds take hold like that, and only in a town like Las Vegas can you 'hit and run' on the odds to not get trapped in to a deep negative hole.

 

when playing machines that are pre-programed to win for the casino,it seems to me you have to "earn" some free play. So if you are gaining some advantage by getting an extra 50 dollars in freeplay.......you had to play a hell of a lot of spins/hands to "earn"that.

That is playing a hell of alot of spins/hands on a machine that is pre-programmed to win for the casino.

And then you have to assume the percent payout on a machine is posted correctly....its a case of total faith.

oh yeah....why would a casino "cheat" they already have the house advantage. I heard that one.

In a bad economy for the casinos where there are less people gambling and more and more people in vegas spending money on shows and shopping....casinos can make up some of the loss on machines. They cant touch the table games(except payout for bj)...so all they can do is screw around with the machines...legally or illegally.

In our economy where people were without jobs for a while and end up accepting lower paying jobs even in the same field,,,,less disposable income to gamble nationwide.....and I would expect casinos to turn to machines for some recovery.

In this climate i wouldnt trust machines at all for a fair shake.

 

Recently the local Indian casinos have gotten these Slot Machines manufactured in Australia and Japan, and replacing all of the IGT and Ballys machines. I have a distrust of those machines made and programmed out of country, for there may be 'rouge mode' software in them that will activate when the machine sees that the hold is low. I have had some experience with oddly behaving machines made from out of country vendors.

Unregulated casinos (and that is just about every Indian Casino) probably is cheating. Bad dice, shorted blackjack decks, rigged slots, and skimpy comps tends to be the common complains. Not all Indian casinos operate like this, though some have been caught operating like this.

The economy as I see it is at a precipice, this time it is the debt bubble. There is no hope for a young person with an on average 30K student loan debt who can only get a low pay job (if they can find a job). They have no money for gambling, and if they happen to go to the casino and all they experience is the fleecing with little to show for it, it is unlikely they will continue to gamble (if ever again) and unlikely they will spend much either. Players talk about burning a table and how that can be bad, but a casino burning players is far worse! They lose years of income when they do that.

Truth be it.... might be best to just stay with social betting (Card room poker, horses, sports) where the casino cannot muck with the game.

 

I switched to table poker and sports around 12 years ago and havent looked back.
Once a year I play craps for the fun of it, and do some slots along the way as well.
Ironically when I play slots...I play only aristocrat machines which are made in Australia

For sports and poker...I have no "system".
For sports there are ways I bet.....ie....no parlays over 2 teams. I dont let the casino hold my money for over 1 day.....therefore no future bets, or no betting the superbowl a week in advance.
And as far as poker, I bet based on best probabilities and my reads....no real "system"

When it comes to "systems" on casino table games and machines......everyone has one. they are a dime a dozen

 

Go into any casino in the country outside Vegas and the average age is over 50. 80% are in their 50's and 60's. They have the money to gamble with. Traditionally, no matter what the economy, people under 30 just don't have enough disposable income to throw it away in a casino. During the week in Vegas, it's mostly the over 50 crowd. It's not till the weekends that the young people show up.

 

EKAPS
The young come to Las Vegas to eat, drink and rutt! How much gambling do they really do? I have been all over The Strip and Downtown on a Friday Saturday night and, yeah the 50+ crowd is doing the gambling while the 35 and under crowd is doing the drinking and parting. My point is that if they are not gambling now ,they won't be gambling in 10 years from now either.

 

I agree with MarkV
Proof exists in the horse racing industry.

Tracks are closing down. In california Bay meadows and Hollywood has closed down in the past 10 years.
The attendance in existing tracks is dwindling
The Meadowlands track almost went bankrupt and is hanging by a thread in NJ

And it all comes down to the fact that in the 80's and 90's less and less young people were interested in hanging out at tracks waiting 20 minutes between races and learning to read a racing form. They had more choices namely being able to play a hand of blackjack every 45 seconds, or roulette, or poker as online explosion occured. later on.
Other forms of more affordable entertainment with the advent of VCR and DVD, with home entertainment centers, along with cable. and big screen tv gave people another place to spend their money and their time

So now the old timers like me are all thats left. And even I am not interested in horses anymore

I agree with MarkV....if you are not introduced to horseracing early in life...you dont all of a sudden develop an urge for it later in life
The same with casino games.

 

I've been going to Vegas since the 80's. It's always been the same, the over 50 crowd does most of the betting because they're the ones with the money. Look at pics from the 50's and 60's of craps and roulette tables. It's always middle aged people. As they get more income, people take an interest in casino gambling. Nothing has changed.

 

back in the old days, there was little other entertainment compared to now
cable/ big screen/hd/sporting events/ current movies in your home/concerts at the touch of a button(ask mark cuban how his chain of movie theaters are doing). No one had immense home entertainment centers to entertain friends or for a quiet date night.
more live entertainment locally...more arenas, more clubs,
Home computers as a source of entertainment, gambling,porn, video games.....all at the touch of a button
DVD rental for a dollar or 2.
More interest in sports and watching at home or going live...because of internet gambling and fantasy leagues

these folks in the old pictures at the roulette wheels in the old time casinos.....didnt have any of that stuff. They could go see a movie in a theater that just gave you one choice of movie title. There was no multi-plex. They could go there for entertainment, they could stay home and watch color TV where if you adjusted the hue, contrast, brightness and color correctly you could see a fuzzy resemblance of a persons face...and your choice of 6 channels.

there is just so much more available now to take up our entertainment time

 

Yet if you want to make bets on carnival games and leave with more that you came in with, casinos are still the only place to do that.

 

Actually, a lot has changed....

Casinos have already recognized that youth (under 35) are just as happy to play the online games WoW and are happy to play the free Facebook casino games instead of the real ones. Winning money seems to not be all that important to them, however perhaps the youth they figured out that the casinos really aren't giving them a fair shot either.

As people move in to their fifties, as I have, you are right we do get interested in casino gambling. Here is the twist though, we know going in to this that we are setup to lose, the dice are fixed, the payouts reduced, and the decks staked against us. Why do you think Poker is all all the rage at the moment? cause the casinos can't muck with the game! Same goes for horses and sports(e-sports) where the casinos cannot stack it against us so we lose.

Most of my peer are my age, and most don't take the casino games seriously nor will commit much of their resources towards such games. In the end if the casinos keep squeezing the players for the money by degrading the games, the casino floors will be rather empty - as they are getting to be now.

I suspect sooner than later that casino gaming will snap back to be something that the youth will want to engage in. In some cases I already see it happening....