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Craps Winning Craps Theory

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by MikeySlice, Nov 8, 2018.

?

Do I have an edge?

  1. Yes

    50.0%
  2. No

    50.0%
  3. You need more rolls to be profitable

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    I posted this in my introduction, but wanted to leave it here too. I think I have came up with a way to beat craps. I'm here for you to prove me right or wrong.

    First I'll start with the fact that there's 6 bets that pay 30 to 1 on the craps table; 2, hard 4, hard 6, hard 8, hard 10, and 12. The minimum bet is $15 and the max is $500, since most casino's only pay out $15,000 max on one of these bets.

    I have a betting strategy that allows me to go AT LEAST 128 rolls betting on any of the above mentioned bets. If I have a team of 5 other players with the same betting strategy, on the other bets, I think we can take $400/hour each on a good day, and lose a little under $15,000 on a bad day. Only one of us should lose that, the rest of the team will make up for that loss though. The odds of that loss is 2.64% per player but the odds of each roll hitting a hard way is 2.77% so I believe we have an edge here. Correct me if I'm wrong.

    The good news is it has to roll SOMETHING! So when you lose, another team member could win! I watched 100 rolls on YouTube and each of these bets came out at least once, one came up 4 times resulting in a $2,500 profit for the team.

    You start off betting $15 for 29 rolls then on the 30th roll you bet $20, until you're no longer profiting, then increase by $5, if $5 doesn't get you profiting you have to go up $10 or $20. You do this until you hit $500 per bet and right now I have that at 128 rolls. I know I can get that number up more, but don't want to put too much energy into it if I don't have to. If this works I'd be more than willing to squeeze more rolls before we get to max bet to increase our chances of winning.

    What do you think?
     
  2. Salfer

    Salfer New Member

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    Hey Mickey...If you are ever coming to Atlantic City
    I would like to join you

    S M F
     
  3. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    I don’t have the money to test this, but I’d love to put together a team and get this thing in motion
     
  4. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    How did you come up with the 2.64% figure? Show your work!
    Each bet carries with it a built-in "tax" of 13.9%, which will crush you in the end.
    For any one of those bets, the probability of going 128 rolls without seeing it is about the same as the probability of getting it on any one roll.
    1/36 = .0277...
    p (128 w/o the number) = .9722^128 = .0271

    You could actually simulate this using WinCraps Pro, which allows multiple players.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
    MikeySlice likes this.
  5. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    I came up with the 2.64% as roll 128 of it not coming up .9722^128. I might have hit equals one extra time on accident.

    What do you mean about the tax of 13.9%?
     
  6. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    I was thinking since the probability of it not coming was less than the probability of it coming that was my edge. Was I wrong? I probably am. I just want to know what it is so I can go back to the drawing board.
     
  7. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    I have the application. How can I add my table to the app?
     
  8. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    Right now I'm at roll 16 and I can't tell how many rolls ago my guy that's responsible for 12 has went without hitting it. How can I find that out in the app? By the way my crew is up $1,290 after 16 rolls.
     
  9. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    .9722^129=.02633

    Any of those bets has actual odds of 35-1 against, but they pay only 30:1, so if you win once in 36 (the average expectation), you lose 35*15 ($525) and win 1*450, for a net loss of $75 per 36 rolls; that comes out to an expected loss rate of 13.89% (75/540).

    "You start off betting $15 for 29 rolls then on the 30th roll you bet $20, until you're no longer profiting,"

    What makes you think you will be "profiting" after 29 rolls? Your description of your "table" is too vague. You need to have a rule that the software can implement.

    "... then increase by $5, if $5 doesn't get you profiting you have to go up $10 or $20. You do this until you hit $500 per bet and right now I have that at 128 rolls. I know I can get that number up more, but don't want to put too much energy into it if I don't have to. If this works I'd be more than willing to squeeze more rolls before we get to max bet to increase our chances of winning."

    You understand that this is sort of like a Martingale, right? You keep raising your bets to chase your losses.

    If you provide me with some rules such that at each point the software can tell what to do, I will try to program it in WinCraps Pro. I'll do it for a bet on Twelve. If it works OK, I can add other players to bet on the other "hardways". What would be your starting bankroll for each player?
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
  10. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    I'm profiting because after 29 rolls of 15 I get paid $450 if I hit. I have a table I made up in my notes that lets me go to 128 rolls before I'm at max payout. I'll post them when I have time.
     
  11. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    I don't know what you mean by that. You get paid $450 whenever you hit on a $15 bet. 29 rolls without a 12 doesn't mean the 12 is now more likely. The chances are almost .5 that you won't get a 12 in 29 rolls (.9722^29=.441). So now you increase the bet to $20? Is this regardless of whether you are ahead or behind?
     
  12. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    Whenever I hit the number I go back to 15. I know my chances don't go up each roll, but the more rolls the more chances to roll one. If you have the 5 others playing with you with the same strategy covering the other hard ways you should profit.
     
  13. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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  14. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    Those should be + instead of - because when you win you win the difference plus the bet back.
     
  15. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    I ran 10,000 sessions of 29 $15 bets on Twelve. As expected, about 44% of the time you are down $435 after 29 bets. 3657 sessions ended up $30, then there were 1901 session with higher winnings, up to a maximum of $1890. Overall, for the 10,000 sessions, the total net was to lose $636,045, or a mean outcome of -$63.60. The standard deviation was $407.71.

    So, if you are ahead after 29 rolls, do you still go to $20?
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
  16. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    No, every time you win you go back to $15 for 29 rolls then repeat the table until you go bust at 129 rolls if/when that happens you stop.
     
  17. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    But there’s a 2.7% chance you win each roll and a 2.64% chance you lose 128 rolls in a row. There’s an edge there right?
     
  18. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    Well, why didn't you say so in the first place? That's a huge difference.
    OK, so once you get past 29 rolls without winning, and have lost $435, and you have to increase the bet to keep the winning amount ahead of the amount invested. You have to keep doing that, which is not easy to program, but doable.

    I mentioned this before, but .9722^128 is .02708, not .0264.
    I wrote a script (autobet file) for WinCraps Pro to implement your system (I think). I put a limit of 600 decisions or if you get to the bet limit ($500). For this test, I used boxcars as the target.
    I ran 500 sessions, starting with a $15,000 bankroll.
    winning sessions: 280, 56%
    losing sessions: 220, 44%
    mean outcome: -$2796
    high outcome: +$20,020
    low outcome: -$15,000
    205 sessions lost at least $14,500 (so you couldn't make the last bet) 41%
    Of the 280 winning sessions, the mean win was $6160, the standard deviation $4508.
    Of the 220 losing sessions, the mean loss was $14,196, the standard deviation $2597.
    Two of the sessions only lasted 67 and 30 rolls before busting, but 295 of the sessions ended at 600 rolls, which might take around 5 hours (120 rolls/hr).

    Let me know if you want the auto-bet file and/or the sessions log.

    I will try adding more players, each betting on a different 30-1 bet.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
  19. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    First off, thank you so much for taking the time to help me with this! This is exactly what I was looking for.

    How did I bust at 30 rolls? The only busts should be at 129 rolls. Every time you win you go back to $15 for 29 rolls and repeat the table I have posted earlier.
     
  20. nycgags

    nycgags New Member

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    You need to be more specific when you describe your strategy.

    "hard 4, hard 6, hard 8, hard 10 does NOT pay 30:1"

    a hopping hard 4, hopping hard 6, hopping hard 8 and hopping hard 10 does pay 30:1
     

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