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Craps Winning Craps Theory

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by MikeySlice, Nov 8, 2018.

?

Do I have an edge?

  1. Yes

    50.0%
  2. No

    50.0%
  3. You need more rolls to be profitable

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    Occupation:
    retired software engineer
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    Woodland, CA
    Good question! I will investigate.
    BTW, now it looks like you can't have multiple players betting at the same time with separate auto-bet scripts. I am contacting Steen, the author to check on this.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
  2. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    Yeah that's what I meant. Sorry, I don't really play the game. I barely know how to deal it.
     
  3. nycgags

    nycgags New Member

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    No problem, I would modify your increments so that you always make a minimum amount of money (like $100) so it is worth your time.

    Rolling 50 times to break even is no fun.
     
  4. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    Cool. Thanks so much for your continued help in figuring this out.
     
  5. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    I actually want to modify them to make less so I can squeeze more rolls. You have to remember that when you win you get 30 TO 1, so you get your bet back as well. The higher you get the more you make since the bet is bigger. The real plan is to win before your 30th roll, which is pure luck, but where you make the most money. Hitting on roll 1 gives you $450 in profit. Roll 29 gives you $30 profit and took roughly a half hour to get your money. Roll 128 gives you $725 profit. Losing 129 rolls in a row loses $14,775, but shouldn't happen often.
     
  6. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    You could just look at the roll log and see how often the other numbers hit and manually do the table. Though 12 was a loss on a session, maybe hard 4 and 6 made $50,000 to make up for the 12's loss of $14,775 you know?
     
  7. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    The real thing to look at with this strategy is the fact that the dice have to roll something. If you have a team that's hedging your losses and winning when you're losing it should help level the playing field. Even with roll 128 being 2.71% instead of 2.64% it's still lower than the 2.77% that it hits each roll. So if we can stretch the rolls to say 133 rolls that should take us to 2.35% chance of losing everything and a 2.77% of winning for 100 rolls, which would be roughly 3.68% of winning after 133 rolls. These are estimates, please correct me where I'm wrong.
     
  8. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    Since 33 is 33% of 100 I multiplied the 2.77% by 1.33 to get the 3.68%. So we should win 3 - 4 times every 133 rolls and only lose 2.35% of the time on all 133 rolls. Since we reset the table every time we win. It should just keep winning with the ultra rare loss of the $14,775.
     
  9. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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    I stretched it to 132 rolls. Which I can get a lot more if I try to incorporate the bet coming back into the equation of “profiting” right now on the last bet of $494 we’ll be invested $14,810 and win $14,820 which is a profit of $10 PLUS the $494 we get back since we’re going back down to $15 a bet after we win. With a new model where we try to profit roughly $50/hr on our wins I think I can squeeze at least another 5 rolls. Maybe a lot more. I don’t know.
     
  10. MikeySlice

    MikeySlice New Member

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