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Baccarat How much can win?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Nov 20, 2020.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I've been thinking about this for a long time. This question is only for those that keep track of their results over time. There are different ways to look at winning: ROI, $/Hr. $/Bet, Win%, U/Shoe...

    If you are not flat betting and keeping track you should be able to answer that question. I like to look at U/Shoe and Win%.

    Reason I bring this up is because of discussions I've had with other players who keep track of this stuff. Soxfan had this method that he insists produces 4 units a shoe. I had another discussion with a full time player who stated that no matter how you bet or what progression method you use you can't win more than about 4 units a shoe. I got a method I fooled with years ago that produced about 3.8 units a shoe net. My current win rate is also about 4 units a shoe.

    No matter how much I try it seems this is the limit. Any comments?

    J
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2020
  2. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Bro, this is wins per shoe right? So how many shoes limit per session?
     
  3. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Average wins per shoe in terms of units. There is no limit. A lifetime of shoes or at least a significant number to develop a reasonable Standard Deviation.

    To further understand this consider any MM or staking plan regardless if it is defined or random guessing. Whatever the base bet is then that is your unit. How many base bets can be achieved on average is the question. Of course you got to be winning to have a positive result! If you are losing overall then your average shoe win rate is some negative unit number.

    So to ascertain this number you have to keep track of your winning (or losses). Let's say your base bet is $1.00 and you win $100.00 over time. So you have won 100 base bets. If you win that in 100 shoes then your average unit win per shoe is $1.00 or 1 UNIT.
     
  4. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    You can't win. Give it up!
     
    Rustyshackleford likes this.
  5. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei Active Member

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    My current win rate is 1 unit every 3 shoes. Trailing stop of 5 units.

    Your win rate is higher than mine. Good job. Keep it up. :)
     
  6. Rustyshackleford

    Rustyshackleford Active Member

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    who is worst ppl like me who claim to have the secret sauce or people like JBS are just straight up negative nancies?
     
  7. bob

    bob Member

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    Secret Sauce are trolls or scammers, scum of the earth.
     

  8. bob

    bob Member

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    jim, thats a grail 4 units a shoe, congrats, youre right, people need to keep a ledger of results if their serious.
    When/if covid pisses off, ive been thinking of having my base betting unit high enough so if i win a unit anytime in the session, i will walk, and come back next week. no good for trip players, but i live close to a b&m, anyone use this style.
     
    Cocobongo2020 likes this.
  9. Rustyshackleford

    Rustyshackleford Active Member

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    how am i worst? i am not selling anything, infact just gloating i have the secret sauce
    on the other hand JBS is just straight up saying you can't beat random.
    imo hes worst, atleast i offer hope like ed o thorp once did..
    maybe i will explain me system some day but not now since i didnt get like the replies i got =/
     
  10. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Jim - I am looking at between 3-6 units per shoe. I will have to tabulate for you but I am certain I’m right at 3 if not somewhere in the 3.1-3.2 range.
     
  11. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Yeah, that's what I found to be weird. It seems to be the limit. The other question then is W/L %. It appears that to get to this point the W % is somewhere around 52-54%. If that is the case then one has to ask why not just flat bet?
     
  12. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    I’m definitely not in a flat bet situation. I don’t know my winning % but I doubt it’s in that range. I do flat bet as much as I can but I don’t think I’m at 52-54%. I will have to go over my most recent shoes.
     
  13. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I keep track of my W L registry. I kept track for about 3000 bets and showed a little over 52% win rate. With changes I've made since getting back to playing after I sat out due to Covid my most recent is 56% for the last 378 live bets. I don't expect that to hold up but it does beg the flat bet question.

    LOL I have shoes which win more than lose but still have a losing shoe due to my progression. Generally though if I win more than lose in a shoe I will win something.
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2020
    cps10 likes this.
  14. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    My last two shoes were definitely over 50%, actually closer to 60%. The way my progression has worked though, I had a long string of losses which was tough and then the wins were unfortunately smaller bets. Won 8 units total for the two shoes. No complaints here!
     

  15. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Wait. Just asking about W L registry. That means won hands vs. loss hands regardless of amount bet. If you had long strings of losses how do you get to a winning 60% of bets? You must have a much longer string of wins.
     
  16. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    My last shoe was WWWLWLLWWWLWLLLLLLWWWWLWWLWW
     
  17. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    that makes sense.
     
  18. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Troll tag team one accounts head , Skipptophia.
    Have been away, good thread. consider this extract from stadium play 2019 thread page 14 post 216
    I only flat bet, my bias is flat betting , I only play rng stadium as I ( personal opinion only ) believe its not rigged as a general rule here in skippytown Sydney star casino. The thread mentioned has all details regarding flat betting and win ratios per month, to briefly state there are days of loss but the days of win far outway the losses involved all achieved by flat betting.
    I have discussed pro and anti flat betting prevously no need to re cap as its an opinion.
    If we look at the 14900 odd hands played in the above 7 month summary and converted to a approx number of shoes ( 14979 hands divided by 85 hands per shoe , on average:) we get 176 shoes played for a *skewered* net profit of 10:9 flat units per shoe ( 1926 units profit divided by 176 shoes). The skewered term is because some days I only played a minium of 1 -6 hands.
    To reiterate 56% strike rate was achieved flat betting starting at $100 units and progressing up to and capped at $500 units on a RNG stadium at 20 seconds in the 7 month period post here this forum.
    As a side note I agree with the op on average over the years when i played Dealer Dealt baccarat shoes using my preferred method of play I would achieve 2 to 4 units flat betting on AVERAGE per shoe. As stated elsewhere due to time etc I prefer the RNG stadium and the PROFITS that I am able to generate.
    I hope this is helpfull. cheers
     
  19. CarloDarlo

    CarloDarlo Active Member

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    I usually go for 3u a session. Which usually happens within 1 shoe sometimes multiple.

    I found that If you especially flat bet it you seem to float around plus or minus 10u. Due to player/banker makeup of the shoe.

    To the people who say you can't win. I find that currently only holds true to flat betting.

    Progressions have always been the way to winning. Hence table limits. One must recoup lost funds or you are playing for entertainment.

    In that case keep the lights on for us.
     
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  20. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Baseless comment, perhaps clarify your flat bet statement as follows
    “The bet selection / selection criteria, I ,( carlodarlo) USE , fails at flat betting .
    You are obviously failing to comprehend that your selection criteria is a failure and that there are other methods that are superior to your method.
    Also in saying that you are a progressive bettor and table limited play is because even the casino knows with unlimited funds even a moron with a flawed selection can jag a win eventually.
    I would recommend you visit gizmos random thread and use the basic red black even money he outlines but as a flat bet and you will see that your talking through your arse as per so many posts that you post as a “ professional “ lmao.
    The random thread is the single simplistic approach to flat bet profit you can get. So do yourself a favour and stop embarrassing yourself.
    Merry Christmas.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2020
    asymbacguy likes this.

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