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Baccarat How much can win?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Nov 20, 2020.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I've been thinking about this for a long time. This question is only for those that keep track of their results over time. There are different ways to look at winning: ROI, $/Hr. $/Bet, Win%, U/Shoe...

    If you are not flat betting and keeping track you should be able to answer that question. I like to look at U/Shoe and Win%.

    Reason I bring this up is because of discussions I've had with other players who keep track of this stuff. Soxfan had this method that he insists produces 4 units a shoe. I had another discussion with a full time player who stated that no matter how you bet or what progression method you use you can't win more than about 4 units a shoe. I got a method I fooled with years ago that produced about 3.8 units a shoe net. My current win rate is also about 4 units a shoe.

    No matter how much I try it seems this is the limit. Any comments?

    J
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2020
  2. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Active Member

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    Bro, this is wins per shoe right? So how many shoes limit per session?
     
  3. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Average wins per shoe in terms of units. There is no limit. A lifetime of shoes or at least a significant number to develop a reasonable Standard Deviation.

    To further understand this consider any MM or staking plan regardless if it is defined or random guessing. Whatever the base bet is then that is your unit. How many base bets can be achieved on average is the question. Of course you got to be winning to have a positive result! If you are losing overall then your average shoe win rate is some negative unit number.

    So to ascertain this number you have to keep track of your winning (or losses). Let's say your base bet is $1.00 and you win $100.00 over time. So you have won 100 base bets. If you win that in 100 shoes then your average unit win per shoe is $1.00 or 1 UNIT.
     
  4. jbs

    jbs Active Member

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    You can't win. Give it up!
     
    letswintogether likes this.
  5. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei Member

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    My current win rate is 1 unit every 3 shoes. Trailing stop of 5 units.

    Your win rate is higher than mine. Good job. Keep it up. :)
     
  6. letswintogether

    letswintogether Member

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    who is worst ppl like me who claim to have the secret sauce or people like JBS are just straight up negative nancies?
     
  7. bob

    bob Member

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    Secret Sauce are trolls or scammers, scum of the earth.
     

  8. bob

    bob Member

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    jim, thats a grail 4 units a shoe, congrats, youre right, people need to keep a ledger of results if their serious.
    When/if covid pisses off, ive been thinking of having my base betting unit high enough so if i win a unit anytime in the session, i will walk, and come back next week. no good for trip players, but i live close to a b&m, anyone use this style.
     
  9. letswintogether

    letswintogether Member

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    how am i worst? i am not selling anything, infact just gloating i have the secret sauce
    on the other hand JBS is just straight up saying you can't beat random.
    imo hes worst, atleast i offer hope like ed o thorp once did..
    maybe i will explain me system some day but not now since i didnt get like the replies i got =/
     
  10. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    Jim - I am looking at between 3-6 units per shoe. I will have to tabulate for you but I am certain I’m right at 3 if not somewhere in the 3.1-3.2 range.
     
  11. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Yeah, that's what I found to be weird. It seems to be the limit. The other question then is W/L %. It appears that to get to this point the W % is somewhere around 52-54%. If that is the case then one has to ask why not just flat bet?
     
  12. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    I’m definitely not in a flat bet situation. I don’t know my winning % but I doubt it’s in that range. I do flat bet as much as I can but I don’t think I’m at 52-54%. I will have to go over my most recent shoes.
     
  13. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I keep track of my W L registry. I kept track for about 3000 bets and showed a little over 52% win rate. With changes I've made since getting back to playing after I sat out due to Covid my most recent is 56% for the last 378 live bets. I don't expect that to hold up but it does beg the flat bet question.

    LOL I have shoes which win more than lose but still have a losing shoe due to my progression. Generally though if I win more than lose in a shoe I will win something.
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2020
    cps10 likes this.
  14. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    My last two shoes were definitely over 50%, actually closer to 60%. The way my progression has worked though, I had a long string of losses which was tough and then the wins were unfortunately smaller bets. Won 8 units total for the two shoes. No complaints here!
     

  15. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Wait. Just asking about W L registry. That means won hands vs. loss hands regardless of amount bet. If you had long strings of losses how do you get to a winning 60% of bets? You must have a much longer string of wins.
     
  16. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    My last shoe was WWWLWLLWWWLWLLLLLLWWWWLWWLWW
     
  17. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    that makes sense.
     

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