Craps Thoughts on this modest strategy

Hello. I have a trip to Biloxi coming up and through trial and error have come up with a simple strategy that seems to offer a way to play for quite a while while offering modest gains with relatively little risk (unless there's a string of losses on comeout, which could damage any strategy....).

My plan is to place minimum place bets ($5 & $6) on the 5, 6, 8 and 9. On the come out I'll likely leave these bets on. After the point is made, I'll leave the bets in place until 3 rolls have been made (including the initial point). If any hits occur, the bet will be pressed. After 3 rolls all bets are taken down and no further bets are placed until the next come out roll, then the cycle repeats. A modification of this could be to include a place bet (without odds) to hedge against a come out 7 to limit my losses. (As I think about it, this may be a better way to go....).

Initial buy in will be modest, around $300 ~ $500.

So, what do you guys think? I like this as it will work on any table, including crapless tables and is quite simple to implement. It does have the disadvantage of not profiting off of long rolls, but will offer modest gains with the presses. On the other hand taking down the bets protects me on lukewarm tables....

 

This appears to be as good as anything else I've seen. Most rolls are in the 3-5 range so you are protecting yourself against those sort of rolls. You obviously will get hit on Point, 7 out or Point, Number, 7 out or Point, number, number, 7 out.

I don't understand your "place bet without odds to hedge against a come out 7. Do you mean a Don't Pass bet? If you are talking about a Don't Pass bet to go along with your place bets, then I think that might be okay too, but a Don't Pass loses to a come out 7. I would not recommend a Pass bet along with a Don't Pass bet (Doey-Don't) as you are actually increasing the house odds against you doing that.

 

Actually, I was thinking of a pass line bet to protect me against a come out 7 (since my place bets are on). Of course, I could just leave them off I suppose....or just place the bets following the point getting established. I figured it would protect me against a hot shooter who rolls a couple of 7's on the begin of his roll. Of course, as you said a don't pass bet could be equally effective. It would give me a partial reimbursement should the player 7 out (at the cost of the come out 7), while also offering the occasional win when a craps is rolled. Probably a wash either way. Will have to try a few variations and see which one I enjoy most.

 

You may last longer, but if you take your bets down after three rolls, you will eventually miss the monster roll.



If you hedge the place bets with a DP on the come out, and the seven rolls, you lose your place bets and the DP.

I never work a place bet after a seven. They say the dice have no memory, but I’ve been burned by too many back to back to back sevens to make me a believer. I’ve seen seven in a row twice.

I also never make a Don’t side bet after a seven or eleven is rolled, for the same reason.

 

I do something similar, but only on a shooters first come out. Once he makes a point I stay up. It does help u stick around longer. If a shooter is still rolling after 8 rolls I'll go back up. If I'm paying attention.

 

I'm not the expert, but in my opinion, you should think a little bit more about this structure, because it has some " mistakes "

 

Yeah, you have given a good advice, man)

 

Never make place bets on the 5 or the 9...bad bets. Always leave everything "working" on every roll of the dice. The probability does not change just because it is a come out roll. There is no "strategy" on a craps table. Make the bets you like with the best odds and hope they hit.

 

In Biloxi, unlike the thieves in Vegas, you can buy 5&9 at the $20 level. Since most casinos now are $15 minimum, you have to have a bigger buy in, and the extra nickel for the buy is worth it.

 

The secret to winning at gambling is knowing how much to bet and when.
No matter what you bet on.

If you are a mathematician the secret to gambling is
(-1)(-1) OR (-1)(-1)(-1)(-1)
If you are NOT a mathematician the secret to gambling is.
"Mikes Ladder"
I designed "Mikes Ladder" to beat the Craps Field Bet.
I had a friend in high school. Who, If you told him he could
not do something. He would do it, Just to prove you wrong.
A little bit of his determination rubbed of on me.
As a result the Craps Field Bet has been beaten.

This brings me to my next challenge. How to sell
"Mikes Ladder" for a Million dollars. It Is worth it.
Enough for now. Looking forward to comments.
Pleasant comments or not. Do not really care.

Please feel free to pass this letter on.

Mike

 

+1 either side

 

Mike

As for your “Mikes Ladder” … the secret to beating the Craps field bet and your challenge to sell the method for a Million Dollars … it should provide some basic information to attract potential buyers

Such as:

Where can this be played…online or live casinos or both?

Are the rules of the method simple or complex requiring tracking or memorization?

How big a bankroll is required?

What is the expectation of an average daily win?

How large will the average individual bets be?

How many playing hours are normally required?

Is the method a flat bet method or a progression?

How many steps in the ladders process?

Could this method get you barred or banned from the casinos for continuous wins?

What are your guarantees to the potential buyer?


I just listed some ideas and questions to get your challenge noticed …assuming you’ve worked through the bugs and shortcomings of the method. So without giving up your secret … provide the lowdown on making this process worthy of a million bucks.

Good luck in becoming a millionaire.
Tinhorn Gambler

 

Mike is really getting bashed, for good reason, for this, at Craps Forum also. Short of DI, no set of bets turn a negative ev into a positive advantage. Not that I'm a gambler, but I do not expect THG's questions to be fully answered.

 

Hoaxer “mikegaurd”

Hopefully, everyone will remember the name “mikegaurd” aka “Rightmath” as our residence CON MAN who classifies himself as a trader in binary options who developed a winning gambling formula …and he wants to sell this method for a Million Dollars.

When asked to provide some data for his incredible find (method), … his silence states it all.

Needless to say, he has been doing this for 3 years on this website.

Boasting is one thing, but an out and out deceit of facts to entice someone to buy his Million Dollar winning formula …. is a cause for concern.

Apparently, he has done this same deceiving “CON” on another website.

A special thanks for the feedback from DeMango who recognized this “CON” from another website.

Remember …. IF IT’S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT SHOULD RAISE A RED FLAG.

For those in doubt of “mikegaurds” intentions .. check all his previous posts.

 

Years ago I come up with a style to tackle the fielf bet but it require a yyyyyuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge bankroll and require to make large units bets from times to times, hey hey.

 

Good to see you still alive and posting, hey hey!

 

soxfan ...Thanks for your feedback.

Yes, I see crap players every day playing the field, and it’s possible to win. However, not by mathematical means … because every roll favors the house. (either -2.77% or - 5.56% against the player )

From the first roll to any other roll …. the field hierarchy has 20 numbers against winning with the 5,6,8 and 7 (which are not in the field) … and only 16 winning number outcomes.

Although “DUE” players and some dice setters may challenge this premise.

Some players bet by hunch, others follow the trend and others bet against the trend or use a certain trigger. However, the majority of field bettors I see PLACE the 5,6,& 8 along with a field bet … so every time a box number is rolled except the “7’ they are winning some money.

All of these methods can have short bursts of profit. Never-the-less the majority of players are more likely to end up with a shortfall.

Yes, triggers, excellent money management, and/or dice setting consistency … along some strict rules may provide some rewards. Because deviations can occur defying the odds the house has.

Normally the house vig will eventually grind the player’s bankroll regardless of the short aberrations … as the field pendulum swings to and fro.

These one-roll proposition bets can normally produce 80 to 120 roll opportunities per hour. Beating the field and winning is possible … but consistency is key.

Craps is a negative expectation game and in the long run, fighting the house edge in chasing patterns and cycles gives hope, but the wrath of probability is still boss.

 

And this brings me to the question... "if you have a never lose system, why are you trying to sell it?" You'll never sell enough copies to 'make a milion' but if you never lose, then you can make that million pretty quickly. Anything else is simply ridiculous. If I had such a system, do you think I'd broadcast it? Nope, I'd make a gazillion, then give it to my sons. You'd never hear a peep about it.

 

Mr. caheaton: I feel your basic approach is ok. Unlike almost all craps "establishment" players, I use the Doey/Don't at Come out. Without going into the weeds on PL wagering, this approach allows for complete flexibility and allows for hedging without paying a vig to the House. If you have a "hot" shooter, the DP bet is moot while the PL + odds stays relevant along with the other right side bets. If the table is "cold," you can make just Don't odds wagers and wait for the 7 out. The real challenge is the "choppy" table as it is for all players, and as occurs during most sessions played. So a conservative approach would be play the PL+ 2 or 3X odds plus three other Place bets. After two hits, you can put on DP odds equal to three existing Place bets and let the hand play out. You can figure out from there what can happen and what additional options you might play. I do suggest you practice on a simulator on a roll by roll basis as if you were making the wagers in real time at a real table. By doing this you can "rehearse" many possible scenarios and/or options during any given hand.

tuttigym

 

That will probably work, I'm quite tuned into roll count and sticking to a a conservative profit target.

Given that the statistics say more than half of all shooters are done by roll 6, by then it's less than 50% probability for the hand to continue.

If bets don't earn rent then evict them. Either regress, turn them off or take them down. 3 rolls is what the math suggest is the average resolution of a place bet.

Using just 3 place bets and the above logic I basically take $100 to over $10k in my build a bankroll series, so I think this style of play has some merit.