Las Vegas GF Chat Room

Neither of the posters above completely grasps the fundamental realities of sports betting. I can't give a Cliff Notes on this topic in less than three hours, but I'll try.

First of all, SPORTS BETTING IS NOT FLIPPING COINS! That means past results can have huge results on future results.

BUT USUALLY NOT in the way blackhole thinks. In fact, it generally works the opposite of where blackhole is leaning with this.

God, this is why you can't just plug in "+EV" estimates as if sports betting is coin flips. It's also why you can't presume historical results portend future similar results -- BECAUSE LINES ADJUST TO PAST RESULTS.

You folks need to go back and read 1972's 'The National Football Lottery" by Sports Illustrated's Larry Merchant. Start there. I read it when I was 16 or thereabouts. You need a starting point -- something to provide an ounce or two of fundamentals and basics.

First example -- if you start afresh in a college football season, and during Week One you have Team A as -1 versus Team B. Team A wins by 40 it happens). Now what would have been, prior to that result, Team A as -7 versus Team C during Week Two, you have Team A as -17 vs. Team C. So clearly past results affect the line, and therefore affect the likelihood of Team A covering the line Week Two.

But, if in similar scenarios stretching back 30 years, Team C has covered 27 out of 30 times during Week Two, does that mean historicity should be relied upon? No, it doesn't. Because the lines have undoubtedly factored in a historical trend that strong. So you are not getting a line that is insulated from past history. You are paying a price for trying to rely on that trend.

So what do you do? You handicap the game and come to a conclusion is what you do. You need to be able to evaluate the teams without wholly relying on (A) the Week One result inflating the line for Team C during Week Two and (B) the ATS history distorting the line due to that history.

People need to understand that point spreads are designed to balance action, not accurately reflect the abilities of the teams versus each other. That is not the job of point spreads.

If any of this is not immediately familiar to you, well, God bless you, as The Church Lady would say.

 

That would be...impossible.

mcap on the UNKEwl one: Kew is simply incapable of letting anything, however minor, go.

Monet on the UNKewl one:
Cause he is nothing but a Gay, Lying, Dirty, Stinky, Smelly Rat!
Rob Singer is Right.
kewlJ is a Phony Bullshit Artist.
And not a very good one at that.

 

AxelWolf on UNKewLyingJ: Everything and anything he has ever said will come into question and years of his forum adventures in BJ and life will be labeled as fiction.

AxelWolf on UNKewLyingJ: But now we haven't any clue as to what was/is true when it comes to you

 

Redietz, your reply is full of "trends" and opinions based on those past trends. What is absent is the mathematical formula based on probability of outcome, not trends or past results.

In Video poker if a game has a paytable that exceeds 100%, you can point to the mathematical formula that result in that 100% + expected value.

If a game has a paytable resulting in a 99.8 return (which is -EV) and there is a player card bonus of .3%, you can point to a math equation or formula that will result in 100.1% (+EV).

In Blackjack each card played has a removal effect number, so based on previous cards played and removed, you can point to a formula or mathematical equation resulting in over 100% expectation or +EV.

It is a mathematical formula or equation resulting in greater than 100% return that makes a gave +EV. It isn't obvious to me where such a formula or equation is with Sports betting. You are dealing with trends and opinions. The only MATH that is obvious is that the vig makes the wager -Ev off the top. I just don't see anything mathematical that turns it +EV. I see trends based on past results and I have always been taught that past results have no effect on future results.

I think the roulette example I gave continues to be the perfect example. Based on the math, the 38 chances of an event occurring and the payout of 35-1, roulette is -EV. I hope no one will argue that. Now because the number 7 red came out 5 times in the last 100 spins, that is a trend (much like a +3.5 home team covering in past games). I don't see any math equation or formula that points to them coving in the future, just as there is nothing mathematical that says red 7 will continue to come out at a +EV rate.

 

This is like an extension of what I have been arguing with the Rob Singer video poker play for years. Throw out the doubleup bug claims which he stole and the recent made up huge jack pot.

His initial VP claim was that the paytable and mathematical formulas based on that paytable and probabilities of outcome resulted in a -EV game. Rob claimed he didn't play with a players card, so there was no player card bonus that bumped that initial -EV game into positive territory. He claimed he was able to win via "special (magical) plays" and progressive wagering, neither which has any mathematical effect on the minus expectation. There was nothing mathematical....no math formula or equation that he could point to making his play +EV.

And similarly with sportsbetting, the only math involved is the vig which makes every game -EV. I see nothing mathematical, equations, or formula based on probabilities that turn that -EV wager to +EV. I see people looking at past results and "trends". Trends is not math.

 

Now obviously, there are some people able to win at sportbetting over the long-term. I don't believe in long-trem "luck". So maybe there is something mathematical that I am just not seeing or getting or that has been explained to me. That is why I am interested to read the discussion, especially pertaining to a mathematical explanation. But like everything on these forums now, all we get is name calling and calling people stupid.

 

You're not getting it, KewlJ. I'm not advocating for trends as useful tools.

The point is that trying to impose some kind of mathematical precision that yields meaningful or useful "+EV" -- outside of pure arbitrage -- is pretty much worthless. But that's what most of the AP crowd is selling. Outside of bonuses and pure arbitrage, which handicappers have been doing decades longer than "APs," there are no mathematical guarantees or edges. And for any given event or time bracket when you think you have a "big edge," there is no guarantee that you do. It's not coin flipping. These are not independent events. At all. The lines aren't even designed to be some kind of analytic true reflection of the two teams. The lines' primary purpose is to balance money.

The idea that opinions have little value is silly. Of course they do. If you know two people intimately, you can predict their behavior better than a stranger can predict their behavior. That's what handicapping is.

What boggles my mind is why you think something "mathematical" -- your word, not mine -- must be part of the equation. It would be like my saying that I think "opinions" matter in blackjack.

I know I know diddly about counting cards, for example, even though back in my youth, I did count cards a bit. I think you just have to say "I really have no blessed idea what I'm talking about when it comes to sports betting" and leave it at that.

 

I am pretty sure Kewlj’s baby bro also reads these forums. This post is to him.

Will you please step in and get your brother some help. Where is the love? Sometimes you must put your foot down and demand something has to be done. Get in touch with your mother who lives down the road (unless that was another Kewlj lie) and see if she could help also.

When people like him have been through the wood chipper and try to pretend all his confirmed sick compulsive lying means nothing; then carries on like everything is hunky-dory, is an indication of a possible nervous breakdown on his door step.

Do the right thing Bro, and show him some love before it's to late.

 

Red, this post is ALL over the place. Let's start with the last paragraph. Why the need to say "you don't know what you're talking about and I do", so just be quiet, with no explanation, not even an attempt at an explanation to explain anything.

We all understand the purpose of betting lines, to even out the betting so there are equal amounts (or close to it) wagered on either side.....all with a house edge due to the vig. So no need to repeat this again...please.

Now you mentioned bonuses. Bonuses is actually something mathematically that can be pointed to that can turn a wager +EV. You seem to take great offense that AP do this.

But that isn't even what I am talking about. Outside of bonuses, what exactly is there that makes a wager +EV? I just don't get this looking at "trends" and past results, which have zero effect on future results (unlike blackjack or any card game) and claiming something is +EV because of these past results or trends. I don't want to keep repeating it but the perfect example is the roulette example I gave. Betting 7 red is STILL -EV despite what past results say.

 

Blackhole, I am done responding to people that do nothing but troll, like you, Mdawg and others. Do what you need to do. It has no effect on me, what I do, what I make, where I live. All it does is further highlight your insecurities, bitterness and trolling agenda. It changes NOTHING in the real world.

I actually was far more tolerant with you than I should have been, treating you with respect and answering your questioned, in great detail, even though you never wanted nor would accept the answer. I am just done with it now. Same with you Mdawg. Do what you got to do and have fun.

 

I give up. Honestly.

LOL.

Knowledge is what makes it "+EV." And sports bettors should not use that term, outside of bonuses and arbitrage, because it's inappropriate. EV is a math term, and it implies (if not outright calls for) precision that does not exist in sports betting (again, outside of bonuses and arbitrage). Outside of bonuses and arbitrage, any application of the term "EV" in sports betting is synonymous with "just a guess." So why not just call it a guess and be done with it? Don't pretend there's some precise math behind a guess. It may make you feel better, but it's both arrogant and semi-delusional. It's hubris.

Betting sports is not primarily a mathematical endeavor. It's a knowledge endeavor.

What I get a kick out of is the idea that I'm somehow being labeled arrogant by a dude who thinks assigning something called "EV" to sporting events (outside of bonuses and arbitrage) isn't the height of arrogance.

 

Ok great. My point exactly! Then you and everyone else STOP using the term "+EV" in regards to sports betting, except in the narrow application of bonuses which can mathematically make a wager +EV. Everything else is just guessing.

The more information you have the better "educated guess" you can make. But it is STILL just a guess. It isn't based on any Math or mathematical equations or formula.

 

I can assure you we're not done with you. Buckle up for the ride.

 

MrV just as Grump was going on and on about how Hilary supposedly hid, deleted or retained classifieds emails, which was never proven in any case, and then it turned out that Grump not only retained and hid but also deleted and covered up classified docs, UNKewLyingJ used to go on and on about how so and so is lying and then...who turned out to be the biggest diurnal liar but...UNKewlLying J hisself!

DanDruff on UNKewLyingJerkoff: I like how MaxPen called it kewlJ's "Newell moment". Hilarious.

MaxPen on the extent of UNKewlJ's lying: Every day is a different lie.

 

Ouch.

Comparing KJ to Trump...that's cruel.

 

Lol
What could possibly gleamed from a degenerate back flipping hypothetical troll such as yourself mr vvvvvv ?
You lie, you agitate, you manipulate using the skills learned as an ambulance chaser the only threads you post to this forum is predominantly this thread and verdict thread of late . Your sole purpose was to be a part of kewlj tribal war party feuding with mdawg and singer. You hitched a ride on kewlj skirt as you are morally bankrupt you can only snipe from behind someone else who is doing the heavy lifting.
You don’t stand for anything and you are just an old sanctimonious hypocrite that dabbles in animal pornography.
Really you call others trolls?
Surely you are not that stupid that you can’t see you are probably one of the biggest trolls around? You can delude yourself as much as you want but YOU ARE THE TROLL
You prove it here this forum on a consistent basis.
You hypocrite.

Is it a coincidence that you old pigfukars like yourself, blackholearselicker, spike etc once you get over 65 years old you automatically become delusional, hypocritical and sanctimonious? Is it a rite of passage to be bitter from your own personal life failures and spend what little time you have left showing the world via whatever forum you post on how sad lonely losers you all are? Your bitterness blind’s your ability to read your posts before you post them because if it didn’t you would see what a complete lowlifes you come across as.
Hypocrisy 101 old loser man style.
Remember vvvvvv you’re just a sad old degenerate loser hypocrite with nothing to offer anyone anything this forum.
Your 1:00 am post I’m replying to , was that a wake up in the middle of the night anger post or an angry post before going to sleep? Sad that I’m the last person you think about at that time of the morning, you fucking degenerate loser

 

ARSEstounding
Bungholerimlicker are you sucking up to vvvv after shitting on him all these years, you old softcock, your enemies are my enemies so we can be friends? You loser.
mr v is a even bigger loser for teaming up with you as he despises you as much as you hate him, but as you are both old fucking hypocrites guess that makes you bosom buddies, maybe you could teach vvvv the sipping from the colostomy bag trick.

As per your observation skills re you going to the casinoverse ( that’s a lie right off the bat) and not see a winner just show what a loser you are. Are you trying to convince people that you didn’t see 1 winner there?
You really are a fool aren’t you?
Your research skills are pathetic, your attempt to research my posts led you to the first page and yes recently this thread has been highly popular for me, go back a few pages in the history, but you won’t because you are a lazy slob that has zero credibility especially when it comes to observation or research. You can’t even scroll here on this forum. Let’s see your history here , since 2016 page 6 of your history here this forum you only post on wizards dying thread , slot thread by mikky cream,and primarily this thread . you fucking hypocrite lying troll.

Get your shit together you are embarrassing yourself, read my last post to your new bestie vvvv the bit about old fucs, that’s you , and unlike you I’m not going to copy and post ad nauseam.
Your one hell of a fool bumholeshitlicker

 

As opposed to repeating, to the effect "We caught you lying," might it not be a more productive use of time to critique his new posts viz. prevarication?

As an example I am trying to hold off on my criticisms of Robert and MDawg's prior claims as I've made my point many times.

As for KJ, I am unaware of any proof of him telling a plethora of lies, contrary to what some claim, but who knows, really?

All we can do is call em as we see em.

 

Professional sports bettors have been using computers to make their picks for many years now. How many? I don't know. But Spanky comes to mind. A computer would have to be using every kind of empirical data known to man. But there probably still needs to be some human input because of things like coaching changes, weather, injuries.

But a computer analysis is not going to give you a ballpark opinion. It's going to tell you there is "a 57% chance that Team A wins the game by 7 points or more."

There's no doubt that some of the people redietz competes against in the contests are using computer picks.

 

Hate to throw this fucking idiot Punkcity bait, which will just end up forcing him to post some more illiterate home vocabulary posts, but I cannot resist.

Obviously, he took what I posted yesterday personal when I stated no one other than MrV and I actually communicated with him after he posts.

This morning in less then 40 minutes he posted 6 times in 3 threads. One post got deleted for being an asshole, and one post got a thank you reply from a founding member for his get well wishes.

No interest in any other forum members to chat or discuss anything he has to say.

LOSER