Misc The VCT Thread!

KJ's record thru 87 picks was 56-31. You've been doing all you can to convince him how "caught lightning in a bottle" lucky he got. Unheard of you say. So rare it's hardly ever seen.

But let's go back to Dan Druff's 2022-2023 NFL picks. He finished 54-32 for the season. Very similar to KJ's numbers. Here's what you had to say in that thread about Druff's numbers:

"Very, very solid. High volume, high percentage, high return on investment. Bordering on spectacular. In most years of Mike McCusker's "Tipsters or Gypsters?" handicappers' report, which often featured about a hundred well-known handicappers, that NFL record would have been in contention for the top overall profit spot. And it would have put you top five (maybe top couple, depending on the year) in percentage and return on investment."

You complemented his skill. Nothing but high praise. But you slight KJ as just some idiot that just got outhouse lucky. It's an extremely rare event you say. KJ caught lightning in a bottle.

But in that quote you also say that about 5 guys out of a hundred bat at that percentage thru 100 picks every contest. That not that rare. That would be about 1 in 20. But you tell KJ it's thousands to 1. And thousands to 1 would make it rare.

 

Last year Rob Singer had a good run through 11 or 12 weeks betting 5 games a week before he quit. He was running at about 67% when he quit so I am sure he was at least +20 or more at some point. And as mentioned Druff was like 37-14 last year before he cooled off.

I don't think these runs of +20, +25 for a fairly short period are as extreme and rare as redietz is saying they are. Now maintaining that over 100's of picks? Yeah that would be difficult. But I wasn't trying to do that, again because my EV isn't from picking winners, it is from getting volume of wagers down without losing too much. I couldn't have "quit while ahead" if I had wanted to.

The same thing happens in blackjack all the time. This year even for me. First 3 months of this year I had a great run playing all the 3 day holiday weekends in Jan, Feb March, NYE, MLK, Presidents, Valentines, St Patrick's day/March Madness, plus the regular 2 day weekends. I was up just shy of 50k after 3 months. Vs EV or expectation of about 16k. 3 times expectation. Should I have quit? Of course not. That is voodoo nonsense.

For AP's it is keep playing as long as you are playing with an advantage. And my sports betting is at an advantage (for the first time in my life). That advantage is the bonus money. But I have to get in the play to realize that advantage.

 

C'mon out of the closet, BH. It don't make any difference to us that you are a faggot.

 

Bump. redietz, why haven't you pointed out KJ's mathematical error. I feel you should be the one to do it because of your higher understanding of the math and probability of sports betting. You are many degree's higher than we are in that respect. I know that with your monumental talent you caught the math error right off the bat. So why not just go ahead and tell him? We await your response, sir.

 

I'm not a mathematician. I review basic probability on a regular basis. I actually review the course I recommended to KewlJ. I'm not making these recommendations out of one upsmanship. I take that course at least every other year. What's good for the goose and all that. When I have questions, I ask a friend who retired recently and taught college probability in the social sciences. If I have further questions, I ask my neighbor down the road, who is specifically a math prof and has quite the reputation. He is still teaching. If you have math questions, I can pass along their names.

KewlJ's response made no sense. Check the final tallies for the SuperBook Contest or Circa and see how many people wound up 25 games over .500 out of how many entrants. That should give anyone pause. Why, if you've made more money than the bonus, would you continue to wager straight plays to fulfill the bonus?

Regarding other topics:

I never here, and have never anywhere, suggested middles shooting for NFL sides. LOL. Sorry, in 40 years of doing this, I have never made that recommendation. Not once. So take all charts of values of NFL sides half points and put them where they belong -- in the round file for irreproducible results. This season is this season. Rules change. Teams change. Rationales for assigning spreads change. The population that wagers changes, both in demography, personal income, and experience. Using past data of non-random events to predict future non-random events with significantly different variables (such as moving the PAT back or having a higher percentage of mobile QBs or percent of games played in rain/snow) is reliance on trends. Reliance on trends also requires an unchanging betting population because spreads are designed to balance the betting population money, not balance the teams. Something as simple as a higher percentage of women wagering on sports could markedly affect spread assignations.

Nothing wrong with reliance on trends. It just means that you're a trendsvestite, as Mike McCusker, the author of Tipsters or Gypsters?, famously said back in the 80's.

Using the term "EV" for sports betting is completely wrong. EV implies an ability to calculate precisely based on events being random or having predictable deviations from random. Pointspreads do not offer that gestalt. The events in question are not random. Spreads are not designed to make the events simulate random outcomes. They are designed to balance human wagers.

 

Redietz, you didn’t tell KJ what his error was in posting his stats. C’mon, man! You took all those courses so I know you seen it. I’ll give you one more chance.

 

Note to some "APs": Sitting around waiting for middles must be almost as boring as sitting around waiting for positive counts.

The hypocrisy is unbelievable. MDawg gets lambasted for not doing things in a correct, professional way. But because an alleged professional decides to do things in a wasteful, undisciplined, short-term "I gotta get it done" way, somehow that's okay because why?

Because he's an alleged professional? WTF?

If I were a KewlJ, I'd spend the next 500 posts and five years explaining why what the alleged gambling professional did was wrong, wasteful, undisciplined, and reeking of impulsivity. Plus I'd try to protect all newbie readers from doing the same.

But I won't do that because, hell, a world full of KewlJs is just fine with me.

 

redietz, you've bragged about all the math and probability courses you've taken. The top notch professors you've had. It's just one more attempt by you of claiming superiority over AP's. You actually think you are superior to AP's. But I've got news for ya, big fella. You threw all that math course bullshit at the wrong person. When it comes to mathematics, probability and gambling I will run circles around you. And I'm an old man that can barely stay awake. You should have seen me in the old days.

You don't know jackshit about gambling math.

 

EV DOES NOT IMPLY an ability to make a precise calculation on the outcome of an event. That's all in your head. You don't have to know the precise number to know you have an edge. It doesn't matter that you can't calculate a precise edge. The EV, whether positive or negative, is still there even if it's totally unknown.

 

First of all he didn't crash and burn down to .500. He reported he fell to being 13 games ahead. But, with your gambling math, is it a 100% inevitability that one will always fall back to even after being 25 games ahead in the first 100 picks of a 300 pick contest? Is that what they taught you in those probability courses?

 

redietz, it's obvious you can't see the discrepency in KJ's win/loss numbers. You've ignored putting the answer up here. And it's obvious that after I challenged you, you then went looking for the error so you could post it up here and rub my nose in it. But you couldn't find the discrepency. So I will expose it to you now.

As you know, KJ's first claim was he was 25 games above .500.

His next claim, just a few posts later was his actual record was 56-31.

He repeated both claims numerous times.

And you went on and on about "25 games above .500" and "25 wins up" in several posts. But you never caught on to the error.

KJ was 25 wins ahead (56 minus 31 = 25) but he was not 25 games above .500

Thru 87 picks, batting .500 would be 43.5 wins and 43.5 losses.

Since KJ could not be 12.5 games above .500, he was either 12 or 13 games above .500.

With your self-confessed training in gambling math and probability I'm surprised you didn't see it. No, stunned is a better word.

 

I do not know if the members here realize how lucky they are to have member Micky Crimm posting on this site.

This man was literally a Hobo train jumping alcoholic bum, living in the woods. Somehow while traveling and living in the wilderness, his drunken head lit up like a 1000-watt lightbulb and discovered the casinos were giving away money.

He is now 70 years old and quit drinking only 5 years ago. So, this means while he was always drunk, he became a mathmagician and was able to keep daily records and thought out formulas about which slot machines to play that would eventually fill his pockets with cash. He found the goose that laid the golden eggs.

The members of this site are fortunate enough to witness this clever man’s genius in action. Just read the last 2 pages of this thread and you will get to witness 14 posts (I am sure much more to come) from the Hobo demonstrating how intelligent he is proving Redietz is from Mars.

Micky, Redietz, and the compulsive liar Kewlj going at it. I am convinced that the only thing these three have in common is AP’ing and abusing the federal and states governments for the freebees available.

This argument between these three morons, about the status of someone’s position gambling in the middle of a season, that will 99.9% end up losing is ridicules.

Since they did not pay any taxes eliminating them from social security, these are the type of people that need welfare, medicaid, and food stamps. This is all they have left.

Yet, they spend most of their lives on assorted forums for decades trying to endlessly convince anyone reading them how smart and successful they are gambling.

This is the ultimate giveaway. FAKE NEWS

 

I can't speak for mickeycrimm or redietz or any other professional AP or gambler. But I pay my fair share of taxes. It is something I feel good about. The law requires gamblers to pay taxes just as it does any other kind of business. And most do. I don't know why you would just assume most don't. Do you assume any other self employed type person doesn't pay their taxes?

I am sure there are some APs and gamblers that skirt the tax laws and requirements, just as there are some from all walks of life that do the same. You blackhole, just have this huge anti-AP bias and hatred. Always have.

 

I'm technically retired. I think my social security is a shade under $2000 a month. It goes up 3.5% next year. I saw the notice.

Have to choose Medicare Part B plans in the next 30 days. Always a pain in the ass.

Other than that, Blackhole is spot on.

P.S. Would love to get some food stamps. Blackhole, you selling any? They did tell me at the courthouse that I qualify for a real estate tax freeze, but I haven't gotten all of the paperwork approved, which is one reason I'm behind on those taxes. Hopefully, I get approved for a freeze.

 

"a shade under $2000"? You don't know what your amount is? That seems strange. It sounds like you might just be getting onto the program. Here is something that may or may not apply to you that might be useful.

You know that the monthly Medicare premium is taken out of your social security right. I haven't kept up since my partner died, but it used to be about $145 a month. So there is a program, for lower income people where medicaid (the state) pays the Medicare premium each month, so you get your full check. It is a bit confusing because it looks like it is a state (mediciad) program because it is run by each state, but the money really comes from the Medicare and the federal government. Once you are on the program it renews every year. I forget exactly how you go about getting on, but you might want to look into that. If you have little or no other income outside of social security you likely qualify.

My Mom is getting ready to get on Medicare, so I was looking at some of the plans a little while ago. There are some good medicare advantage plans that cover all medical expenses and even some extra things, now. Much better value than the old traditional Medicare that paid 80% of costs. A couple that stood out to me were a couple by united healthcare.

They make the whole social security sign up and medicare picking a plan, much more confusing than need be.

 

I think it's ballpark $1900, but it's direct deposited so I don't keep close tabs. It was boosted during the tail end of Covid more than it should have been, so I lost track of exact amounts. I don't even know what months the boosts kick in. The Medicare is taken directly out of it, so I guess the actual amount is somewhat north of $2000, but for practical purposes, I just say 2K.

I don't qualify for anything additional. I claim other income, unfortunately. I just got through fending off three calls from United Healthcare in two days. I currently have them, but boy, they are making themselves a nuisance. I have all the bells and whistles. I think I get a 10K gift if I'm found to have cancer. LOL. Not medical payment, mind you, just a shopping spree. Weird options, man. I have most of them.

 

Red, you seem to have a very non-chalant attitude about some of this. I would recommend you take more of an interest and keep a closer eye on things. Once you start having direct deposits, even from the government, and give permission for anyone (government ect) access to your account, strange things start happening. Unauthorized withdrawals and charges ect. You are far better off if you catch this shit early when it happens as far as recovery. Even if your bank guarantees replacement of fraudulent activity. Catch it early and don't let these bastards even get away with it.

 

Where would you put the odds that redietz addresses his failure to recognize the error in KJ's stats? Instead of recognizing it he went on and on in post after post using the phrase "25 games above .500." Now that I exposed the error redietz chooses to ignore it. Not a peep out of him about "25 games over .500." He dropped it like a hot potato. And is typically ignoring that he blundered.

 

Try to tell that to UNKewLyingJ, who in his fictional blackjack play (the only play he has been substantiated and observed with playing is red to green action as cover for his sugar daddy exploits) claims that he knows exactly how much he should have won over the years and has won exactly that amount. In other words that he knows exactly what his handle (amount passed across the circle) has been over a fictionalized fifteen years of play.

All of UNKewlJ's stories have been debunked, and it is now confirmed by both APs and personal observations by APs like MaxPen and AxelWolf that UNKewlJ and investigation by seed value that UNKewlJ is nothing more than a low end video poker player playing as cover for sugar daddy hustling.

 

According to some "APs", then, "EV" is synonymous with "my guess." Then why say, "The 'EV' is" when you can simply say "My guess is?" The problem with stating something has EV is it clearly implies a mathematical precision that does not exist for betting sporting events, which are non-random events.

There is no utility, if "EV" simply means, "My best guess," to using the term "EV." Anyone using it is doing so for intellectual window trim. They are aggrandizing their opinion with a math term.

This is why I've argued, from the beginning, that I have no issue with someone saying "best guess" or "my estimation." Those phrases carry with them a built-in, understood, lack of precision and gravitas. Calling something "EV' when it's a guess serves little purpose other than to aggrandize one's best guess. It's basically the unnecessary, inappropriate imposition of a math term onto something that is heuristic.

Ninety-nine point nine percent of a reading public will assign math gravitas and precision to the term "EV." So even from a simple communications standpoint, the term would be inappropriate for sports betting.

The other issue, which I won't get into, is that "EV" DOES have math precision when applied to random events, such as coin flips or blackjack. So why use the same term for two entirely different things? The likely most common answer is that the user of the term wants to appear more certain than he is.