Misc WizardOfVegas Forum is Dying

No doubt.

Flying those lumbering transports for the Air Force must have caused him a shitload of stress; wrapping his lips around a fag and sucking joyfully surely helped to calm him down.

I suspect he perfected the art earlier though, most likely when his dad took him out back to the woodshed.

Like father, like son.

 

I just ate a whole freaking container of Dryers ice cream (that's Edy's to those of you east of the Rocky's). That was some good shit! Thank god the ice cream industry cut those standard half gallon containers down to a quart and a half (in an effort to screw the consumer) or I would probably be in a sugar coma by now.

 

Dryers is very good, but a couple local brands, Tillamook and Unpqua, are better.

More butterfat, I think: thicker, creamier.

Guilty pleasure.

 

Imagine being her gynochologist! You'd need a shoe horn to wedge open her fat rolls to get to the gaping snatch and then some of that cream forensic investigator rub under their noses when dealing with dead bodies to mask the revolting stench of her rotting vagina.

 

I'd rather nail my cock to a burning building.

 

Why are you making tougher than it has to be.

 

The land of the free and the home of the brave. Do I care about a self title or what others perceive me to be.In the end I don't.
It was all a matter of my own survival. I did what I had to do.

 

To the critics: ponder these now famous words: "Judge not, lest ye be judged."

 

For you to praise and make such a statement about being in awe of true AP guys like Axel and Mickey, I could only guess you know them both very well and personally.

You and Axel both live in Las Vegas. Do you hang with him? Have you watched him in action working his talents? Have you seen his personal bank(s) accounts, or mattresses stuffed and made of cash?

I do recall you saying in one of your posts you didn’t know him personally.

Mickey lives in Montana. What type of personal relationship do you have with him?

Unless you know for confirmed fact (which you should be able to explain to us how you arrived at your conclusion in order to make those comments) about these or any other AP’s personal financial status as a result of AP’ing, I call you out on these comments and consider them bullshit till proven otherwise.

 

Wait what? You are "calling me out" on my opinion of someone?? What the fuck!? Who the fuck are you? You don't get to call me out on my opinion.

Whether or not I know or have met either of these people is none of your fucking business. It also is irrelevant to the my comments and my opinion.

Such a bullshit post doesn't deserve a response, but I will give one. No, I have not met either Mickey or Axel. As a matter of fact, I have met only a very small number of AP's. That is just not something I have much interest in. But in the AP community, if people don't know one another, you know OF them or know someone that knows them or network with someone that knows or has played with them. I do know people that know and have played with Axel and speak highly of him and that's more than good enough for me.

Mickey, I really only know from a couple AP message board sites. But I have often stated you can tell pretty quickly on these sites, who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking. It was immediately obvious to me that Mickey knows what he is talking about.

You seem to be of the mindset that you don't believe anyone. That is your right. You seem to want everyone to prove with documentation and such, everything they say or claim. And that is just not going to happen. That is not the way anonymous message board sites work and that sure is not the way AP's or the AP community work, where AP's value their privacy work.

So you can scream all you want "prove this" or "prove that". It ain't going to happen. You can believe whatever you like, but no one owes anything to you and no one I going to prove anything to you.

 

Wow, such a harsh response from such a level-headed person. Now your taking the same typical response all other AP’s take when challenged. Start screaming that I’m the fucking asshole because you can’t prove a single thing you say.

You say, “No one is going to prove anything to me.” That’s where you’re wrong. It’s just not to me, it’s also to everyone else that read these forums.

One last question if you don’t mind. Why, are people who read gambling forums expected to believe the content without any confirmed proof? I think it’s similar of being convinced to becoming a suicide bomber to meet Allah and a dozen whores. If you had a good Muslim friend you trusted that spoke highly of that concept, and since that’s also posted all over the internet, would you feel that’s more than good enough for you also to believe and quote him?

What I quoted above from your post is all I really wanted to know. Thank you for your honest response

 

You are not "expected" to believe or do anything. You are free to believe whatever you like. I'll say again...Most people can figure out pretty quickly who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking. If you can't....I don't know what to tell you.

 

The late Hans "Tuna" Lund gets my vote as the best machine pro of all time.

 

I know of a play Axel had in his arsenal 20 years ago. One of my first gigs with machines was the linked Flush Attacks at the Riverside in Laughlin. I was new to the game and trying to learn everything I could. I met and was friends with practically every hustler on the River. One of the things I got told about was a group they called "the change boys" out of Las Vegas. And one of the things I was told was that if I wanted to get a glimpse of the change boys then I should keep an eye on the $5 denom 8/5 Jacks progressive in the high roller room at the Riverside. I was told the change boys would show up when the progressive got to $42,000.

There was just two machines to this progressive and I kept an eye on it. And sure enough one day that progressive got up to $42,000. There were two players on the machines. Their backs were to me and they didn't know I was there. I thought about the sheer power it took to be able to throw down on a play like that. I was a low bankroller at the time but I thought "one of these days I'm gonna be able to throw down on a play like that."

I figure the bank had a 2% meter. So what does the math look like on a play like this? $5 denom 8/5 Jacks with a $42,000 royal has a theoretical of 99.84%. The slot card at the Riverside, at that time, was worth .2%. The meter ran at 2%. So it is essentially a 2% meter win with optimal strategy. The royal odds would be about 32,600 with optimal strategy.

They would be taking about a 5.3% drop on the way to hitting the royal. So the average cost to produce the royal would be:

32,600 X 25 X 5.3% = $43,200

Since the meter is running at 2% the average amount of money the would put in the meter would be:

32,600 X 25 X 2% = $16,300

$42,000 + $16,300 means the average royal would pay $58.300

They were looking at an average $16,300 profit on the play.

At 1600 hands per hour (two players) the cost to chase the royal would be about $2,100 an hour. The average seat time on the play (two players) would be about 20 hours. So that's 20 hours for a $16,300 profit. So the play was worth $800 an hour. I was told the change boys ran shifts on the play so no one was overworked.

What is my guesstimate of the bankroll required to throw down on such a play? At least a quarter million dollars.

The next morning I went back to the high roller room. The royal was back at the $20,000 reset and the change boys were gone.

Axel and his crew were known as the change boys. Axel, I'm sure this play is long since extinct. Perhaps you could tell us somewhat of your experience on this play. How many times did you guys play that bank? What was the best and the worst you ran on the play?

 

Larry, your posts just get stupider everyday.

 

I CORRECT YOU

my posts get more stupid daily

 

there is mathmatical expectations and then there is reality for a particular point in time.

So I ask this question

You can go to a roulette wheel and mathematically expect number 32 to come out one out of 38 times. But fo a specific section of time..maybe it doesnt come out in 500 spins.

So does the same happen with expectations of a Royal to appear.? Could that group of people have hit a patch where their large bets never produce the profit that the math would predict.

I understand the concept of jackpots hitting by a certain dollar value.....but this doesnt appear to be that type of play. This totally relies on math probabilities.

 

The math probability is the guide on the play. You are not going to hit the royal in exactly 32,600 hands. I've personally hit 3 royals in 4 hours where the probability of the royal was 45,000. This happened to me at the Pioneer in Laughlin playing the unlinked Flush Attacks (101.8%) with promotions and cashback. I also went 250,000 hands between royals sweeping the unlinked Flush Attacks and House A Rockin's at the Carson Valley Inn in Minden. So I've been on both ends of it.

On plays like this you have to be playing within the means of your bankroll. That's why I put the bankroll required at $250,000. The one thing you don't want to do is pot shot the play. If it's a play when you sit down on it then it's a play until you hit the royal....no matter how much you get stretched out on the play. It's the cheapest way out if the play goes loser on you.

I'm not as boned up on this kind of probability but I think the odds of it taking you 2 cycles to hit the royal is 1 in 7, 3 cycles 1 in 20, 4 cycles 1 in 50, something like that.

 

Yeah, okay. That's cool

 

I don't want to step on Mickey, as hopefully he will answer to this specific play, but in a general sense, what is wrong with replying on math probabilities? The basis of AP is that we find or turn a situation where expectation is positive and hope that in the short term it works out. But it doesn't always. But in the long term it always does.

Playing blackjack, I hit my last all time high (ATH) in early October. Since that point, I have gone backwards (lost) over 30 thousand dollars as variance or the short term run hasn't been with me. But each and everyone of those days (which were mostly losing days), I played with positive expectation or positive expected value (EV). That's all you can really do. It may not work out the way it should in the short run (as it hasn't for the past couple months for me), but it will in the long run.

BTW, in my very elementary experience with royals, I have found that they come in bunches. You hit 2 or 3 or 4 in a relatively bunched period of a few thousand or even a few hundred spins and at other times you don't see any for a couple hundred spins. That is variance.