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Baccarat 5 column statistics

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by violater777, Jan 5, 2018.

  1. violater777

    violater777 New Member

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    Hi, I've been playing this game for 20 years and I have become profitable the last 7 years of it. I compiled large amounts of statistics to devise a system. I have decisions on each card into groups of 5 to obtain these statistics. I will also say that the 'lapper' play is my bread and butter play holding strong at 57.4% after 3000 shoes. There are other profitable plays, but I will leave it to the forum to find them as they may find something I have missed. In a couple days I will have an addendum of more plays that I use in certain situations.

    Shoes 100-200 and 500-600, out Zumma 600 book:

    The statistics of a column that starts with Banker:

    BBBBB=7.2%

    BBBBP=5.8%

    BBBPP=6.6%

    BBBPB=6%

    BBPPP=6%

    BBPPB=6.9%

    BBPBP=7.8%

    BBPBB=7.2%

    BPPPP=4.7%

    BPPPB=6.3%

    BPPBB=4.6%

    BPPBP=6.1%

    BPBBB=6.1%

    BPBBP=6.5%

    BPBPB=5.5%

    BPBPP=6.7%

    Notable factors according to this sample of 200 shoes:

    If the column starts with a B, there is a 53.4% chance the next result will be B.

    If the column starts with BP, there is a 53.3% chance the next result will be B.

    If the column starts with BPB, there is a 50.8% chance the next result will be B.

    If the column starts with BB, there is a 52.1% chance the next result will be P.

    If the column starts with BBB, there is a 51% chance the next result will be B.

    If the column starts with BPP, there is a 50.7% chance the next result will be P.

    If the column starts with BBBP, there is a 52.4% chance the next result will be P

    If the column starts with BPBP, there is a 54.9% chance the next result will be P.

    Other notable factors that may be of interest:

    Whenever there is a 'lapper'(overlapping occurrence, as explained in my BS), and either betting the repeat of B in the 3 hole or 4 hole, there is a 54.47% chance that B repeats in this situation.

    Whenever there is a single B in the first position of the column with a Player streak of 2 or more preceding the B decision, there is a 54.33% chance that B will repeat for the 2 hole which happens to be the 2nd decision of the column.

    Whenever there is a single B in the first position of the column, and 2 or more chops have occurred, there is a 52.57% chance that B will repeat.

    Whenever there is a B 'lapper', and the punter bets for the repeat and it's betting for the 5 hole or greater, there is a 52.47% chance that the B will repeat.
     
  2. violater777

    violater777 New Member

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    Shoes 100-200 and 500-600 of the Zumma 600 book.

    The statistics of all columns that start with Player:

    PPPPP=5.3%

    PPPPB=7.3%

    PPPBB=7.5%

    PPPBP=5.5%

    PPBBB=5.9%

    PPBBP=6.2%

    PPBPB=6.6%

    PPBPP=6.5%

    PBBBB=6.8%

    PBBBP=5.7%

    PBBPB=5.9%

    PBBPP=6.2%

    PBPPP=6.5%

    PBPPB=6%

    PBPBP=6.7%

    PBPBB=5.4%


    Notable factors of these 200 shoes:

    If a column starts with P, it repeats in the second decision of the column, 50.7% of the time.

    If a column starts with PB, it's a 50% chance whether the next decision is B or P.< I have other stats that say B follows a PB couplet 52% of the time. Shoes 500-600, were odd shoes and didn't hold true to most of my previous statistics, but that is why I tested them. I didn't want bias, I wanted diversity.>

    If a column starts with PP, 50.4% of the time, P is the next decision.

    If a column starts with PBP, 50.6% of the time, P is the next decision.<Remember, this stat means all chops, and not just the stats of the third chop. Still, I found this stat surprising; I suppose more testing should be done.

    While the Player column's statistics didn't impress me as much as the Banker's, I didn't expect to have any kind of a positive expectancy throughout 200 shoes, but I got a slight one.

    Other notable factors:

    When there is a P 'lapper', and the punter is betting for the 3 or 4 hole, there is 50% chance of hitting a P or B.

    When there is a single P at the begining of a column, and there is a series of B's(2 or more) preceding the single P, there is a 50.66% chance, the next decision will be a P.

    These other factors are in the negative, but I will post them anyway:

    When there is a single P in the first spot of the column and there has been 2 or more chops, there is a 49.25% chance the P will repeat.

    When there is a P 'lapper', and the punter must bet on the 5 hole or higher in the series, there is a 48.99% chance the P will repeat.
     
  3. violater777

    violater777 New Member

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    Now I will pair all columns with their obverse columns with the statistics of each.

    For these 200 shoes, 50.7% of every column started with a Player.

    BBBBB=3.57%>
    PPPPP=2.68% >6.25%

    BBBBP=2.87%>
    PPPPB=3.68%>6.55%

    BBBPP=3.24%>
    PPPBB=3.79%>7.03%

    BBBPB=2.94%>
    PPPBP=2.79%>5.73%

    BBPPP=2.94%>
    PPBBB=2.98%>5.92%

    BBPPB=3.42%>
    PPBBP=3.13%>6.55%

    BBPBB=3.53%>
    PPBPP=3.31%>6.84%

    BBPBP=3.84%>
    PPBPB=3.35%>7.19%

    BPPPP=2.32%>
    PBBBB=3.46%>5.78%

    BPPPB=3.13%>
    PBBBP=2.9%>6.03%

    BPPBP=3.01%>
    PBBPB=2.98%>5.99%

    BPPBB=2.28%>
    PBBPP=3.16%>5.44%

    BPBBB=3.01%>
    PBPPP=3.27%>6.28%

    BPBBP=3.2%>
    PBPPB=3.05%>6.25%

    BPBPB=2.72%>
    PBPBP=3.42%>6.14%

    BPBPP=3.31%>
    PBPBB=2.76%>6.07%
     
  4. jbs

    jbs Active Member

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    Then why the F are you here? Stay the casinos and make your billions of $$$$! Dont give away secrets!
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2018
  5. violater777

    violater777 New Member

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    No big secret as I mentioned them as 'notable factors'; I never mentioned my actual plays except for the 'B lapper'.
    The post is to get new insights on what some of the more astute members can gather from some of the statistics I have posted and and come up with more efficient ways to play. I did this work on my own and I truly believe that many minds are better than one.
     
  6. Baccarat man

    Baccarat man Member

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    It's all to do with money management guys!!! You can try any system you like and it could work but unless you manage your bankroll carefully it will disappear eventually.consistent betting will lead to disaster!!!! Taking breaks is wise.I know through personal experience.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2018
    Junket King likes this.
  7. Lani

    Lani New Member

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    Secret from only 600 shoes? The sample is small... How about I give you 1 million shoes. But any way usually, 100 thousand shoes will good enough for testing.
     

  8. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Lani is that you my old phlebotomist friend who figured out Roulette on 123 Bingo?
     
  9. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    For that matter I've found a 23.256 shoes sample where the pattern BBBPPP was followed by a P 53.18% of the times but I don't think this is of any valuable help.
    Itlr every most likely pattern will be BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB........

    as.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2018
  10. violater777

    violater777 New Member

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    I tested 2000 live shoes by hand with 500 of them being my own. Those statistics hold up. Test them yourself if you have any doubt.
     
  11. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    First, I like people like you, people capable to dissect the game trying to get something that common literature denies.
    Still I think that in order to get significative deviations you need to know HOW such hands had developed.
    P or B can come out by sym or asym hands, it's a huge difference.

    Shoe distributions are constantly varying, and of course are not affected by previous actual hand outcomes, just by specific hands formation.
    I mean that B or P patterns are just the reflex of math probabilities and no one pattern can be easily devised from the past, besides that B1<B2<B3...and P1>P2>P3....

    I guess that a larger sample would balance your findings.

    as.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2018
  12. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Moreover this If the column starts with BPBP, there is a 54.9% chance the next result will be P statement is completely wrong.

    as.

     
  13. kfmfe04

    kfmfe04 New Member

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    Actually, the calculation seems to be right.

    P(P|BPBP) = P(BPBPP) / (P(BPBPB) + P(BPBPP)) = 6.7/(6.7+5.5) = 54.9%.

    The interesting question is, is the premise viable/profitable?

    Violater777, I have a few questions.

    1. Are you drawing a card from each shoe initially to see how many cards you need to burn first, and burning those cards? Like they do with a real shoe?
    2. I'm assuming that you're only playing that initial hand from a fresh deck. This is right?
    3. Do you have those Zumma 600 shoes available in ASCII form (eg csv) that you can share with me? I can test all 600 for you.

    I'm willing to give you a second opinion as to what is going on, if I can take a look at those shoes and compare them with a million PRNG-generated decks. I can do some statistical comparisons and analyze whether or not this play is viable, if I understand the details of what you are doing.

    If you are doing what I think you are doing, those initial burned cards may yield different results from what you're getting (unless you've already accounted for them).
     
  14. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    I can guarantee without any doubt (36.500 live shoes tested and 44 millions of pc shoes) that itlr BPBPB is > BPBPP, no matter whether this pattern comes at the start, in the middle or at the end of any single shoe. And of course probability is B=50.68% and P=49.32% (ties ignored)

    Moreover P singles clusters are more likely than P singles isolated.

    Slight differences are interesting to study when the shoe starts with a streak of certain lenght containing or not a given amount of asym hands.

    as.
     

  15. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    So , the right thing to do is go against your positive findings because things evens out in the long run. You mean if the percentage which is 54 moves to 56 we should bet the other side more?
     
  16. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    . Ditto. When flat betting fails, use MM. That will allow one to win even with more losses than wins.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2018
  17. violater777

    violater777 New Member

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    RNG is where your flaw is. I tested this against both Zumma books and hundreds of live shoes, and if anything if anything the positive expectation increases during time( the B lapper). BPBPP occurs more often in live shoes and not RNG. I agree with you that BPBPP might not hold up over 36000 shoes not do O care. I don't want to spend the rest of my life playing them. I'm well aware B occurs more than P, but we both know betting B over and over is seldom prudent in the short term.
     
  18. violater777

    violater777 New Member

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    You will need a MM that will coup with a WW, WLW, WLL...W to survive playing with blind MM. Particularly a Star like Fibonacci or breaking down labby strings. Why do that when BS can win flat betting? Believe it or not?
     
  19. violater777

    violater777 New Member

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    These are all shoes that contain a burn. I don't have them on a drive but I could have them on about a week for testing.
     
  20. violater777

    violater777 New Member

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    I only play hands that are statisically to my advantage. I occasionally spot bet the whole shoe if an advantageous play arises. I play a 5 column BS meaning when 5 decisions pass then that is the start of a new column.
     

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