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Baccarat 5 column statistics

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by violater777, Jan 5, 2018.

  1. violater777

    violater777 Member

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    Correct, B occurs more than P, but if one groups it into a 5 hand sequence then I beg to differ.
     
    mansi19896 likes this.
  2. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Active Member

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    how exactly do you play, entire five in a row or last one from 5 decision pattern with 1 unit..
    and how many units average you earn in month so we know are we doing it right or not.
    and the biggest losing streaks
    thank you for sharing.
     
  3. chewbaccarat

    chewbaccarat Member

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    Hey V777:

    I too am very interested in your approach. Could you explain what a lapper is in more detail. I'm thinking I've got it understood but just in case. Thank you for posting.
     
    mansi19896 likes this.
  4. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    It took me only one hour to pick my Baccarat method and I have never changed it since then ( 1996 ) .



    ND
     
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  5. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Active Member

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    but what it is. isnt it the purpose of this community. lets win together
     
  6. John Blerg

    John Blerg Well-Known Member 👹 Troll 👹

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    Mansi you are totally joking right??????????????
     
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  7. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Just to be clear: P singles is a P surrounded by repeats ..BB P BB..) P cluster is ...BB P B P. . . . If you count each cluster as 1 and each isolated P as 1 I've always found them to be pretty equal in aggregate - anecdotally of course but I have counted them through several hundred shoes.

    How are you defining asymmetrical hands? Any length of decisions where number P's = number B's ?

    J
     

  8. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Active Member

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    how come. you seem to be just having fun in here joking things, so its different for you.
     
  9. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    I refer to P single as a P single hand, it could be a first shoe P hand followed by a single or more B or a sequence like BPBPBP...or the pattern you illustrated.

    Asymmetrical hands are hands when third card rule intervenes (no matter the actual result).
    Imo a PPPP pattern with no asym hands is quite different than the same PPPP sequence where one or more asym hands had taken place.
    First is just a by product of a 0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5 probability; the latter involves along with the usual 0.5 probability one or more 0.5793 steps favoring or actually not B.

    as.
     
  10. chewbaccarat

    chewbaccarat Member

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    V777:

    I wrote a program exactly simulating your approach and then ran the first 100 Zumma shoes through it. This is what I got:

    Start of a column with B and betting B as the next result (in the 2 hole): 325W and 350L
    Start of a column with BB and betting P as the next result (in the 3 hole): 163W and 161L
    Start of a column with BP and betting B next result (3 hole): 180W and 167L
    Start column with BBB and bet B next (4 hole): 83W and 78L
    Start column with BBBP and bet P next (5 hole): 41W and 35L
    Start column with BPBP and bet P next (5 hole): 38W and 45L
    Lapper for rows 3 and 4 (3 and 4 hole): 339W and 315L

    I have another 500 shoes to input. Say 100 shoes per night as I have to do it manually. But prelim. results indicate the BBBP-P bet at 54% (admittedly n only = 76 trials), the BP-B at 51.9% win rate and the 3/4 hole lapper at 51.8% win rate (over 654 occurrences). All the rest are not winning bets at this early stage as they are below 50% win rate or are barely above 50%.

    What do the rest of the members think?
     
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  11. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    As already posted, there's a slight difference between live shoes and pc shoes. We could infer that a kind of randomness defect works for live shoes even if they are dealt by SM.
    Moreover, there are live tables and live tables.
    Tables where you can peek the cards use a fresh shoe everytime, tables featuring a SM utilize two shoes alternatively shuffled.
    In Europe very often the same shoe (6 decks) is shuffled manually.

    After millions pc simulated shoes, the best probability is to bet B after a single P followed by betting B after a single B.
    Longer patterns suffer from the very very slight propensity to get the opposite outcome of what just happened.
    Therefore P-B has a higher winning percentage than P-P-B or B-B is better than BB-B.

    We could hypothize that LIVE shoes provide a slight larger amount of cards clumped in high and low cards than pc shoes.
    More clumped hi/lo card shoes provide better opportunities for betting Player side as high cards will not harm too much and the benefit of having low cards clumped definitely favors the Player.

    as.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  12. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Thanks ND, your like means a lot to me. :)
    You are one of the top 10 gambling thinkers of the planet.
     
  13. chewbaccarat

    chewbaccarat Member

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    To all interested parties.

    Here are the next 100 Zumma shoe (Z101-Z200) results:

    Start of a column with B and betting B as the next result (in the 2 hole): 372W and 309L
    Start of a column with BB and betting P as the next result (in the 3 hole): 205W and 163L
    Start of a column with BP and betting B next result (3 hole): 149W and 156L
    Start column with BBB and bet B next (4 hole): 84W and 77L
    Start column with BBBP and bet P next (5 hole): 40W and 36L
    Start column with BPBP and bet P next (5 hole): 49W and 34L
    B Lapper for rows 3 and 4 (3 and 4 hole): 264W and 276L

    My program is only following V777's top bets. The random frequency of Banker wins should be 50.68% and player wins at 49.32%
    As a summary over 200 shoes, we are seeing:

    Start of a column with B and betting B as the next result (in the 2 hole): 51.4% win rate
    Start of a column with BB and betting P as the next result (in the 3 hole): 53.2% win rate
    Start of a column with BP and betting B next result (3 hole): 50.5% win rate
    Start column with BBB and bet B next (4 hole): 51.9% win rate
    Start column with BBBP and bet P next (5 hole): 53.3% win rate
    Start column with BPBP and bet P next (5 hole): 52.4% win rate
    Lapper for rows 3 and 4 (3 and 4 hole): 50.5% win rate

    I will continue to add and report shoe results to the program and see how these win rates equilibrate.

    Unfortunately, the 3/4 Banker lapper (V777's fav most trustworthy bet) is at a 50.5% win rate.
    And a final stat. If you had bet for every occurrence for the total 7 bets...your overall win rate would be 51.4%

    More later for anyone that is interested. I could be typing to myself I guess. But that would make me crazy. Not going there.
     
  14. chewbaccarat

    chewbaccarat Member

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    Hello interested parties:

    More results from next 100 shoes (Zumma 201-300).

    Start of a column with B and betting B as the next result (in the 2 hole): 327W and 333L
    Start of a column with BB and betting P as the next result (in the 3 hole): 168W and 153L
    Start of a column with BP and betting B next result (3 hole): 177W and 155L
    Start column with BBB and bet B next (4 hole): 82W and 68L
    Start column with BBBP and bet P next (5 hole): 32W and 35L
    Start column with BPBP and bet P next (5 hole): 39W and 39L
    B Lapper for rows 3 and 4 (3 and 4 hole): 298W and 292L

    A summary of all 300 shoes goes like this:

    Start of a column with B and betting B as the next result (in the 2 hole): 1024W and 992L (50.8% win)
    Start of a column with BB and betting P as the next result (in the 3 hole): 536W and 477L (52.9% win)
    Start of a column with BP and betting B next result (3 hole): 506W and 478L (51.4% win)
    Start column with BBB and bet B next (4 hole): 249W and 223L (52.8% win)
    Start column with BBBP and bet P next (5 hole): 113W and 106Lv (51.6% win)
    Start column with BPBP and bet P next (5 hole): 126W and 118L (51.6% win)
    B Lapper for rows 3 and 4 (3 and 4 hole): 901W and 883L (50.5% win)

    So we expect banker to win 50.7% and player to win 49.3% (ignoring ties).
    So the bets which seem to have an advantage over those stats are:

    1) BB and bet P,
    2) BP and bet B,
    3) BBB and bet B,
    4) BBBP and bet P,
    5) BPBP and bet P.

    V777's bread and butter B lapper bet (in the 3 or 4 hole) is not working out and is essentially no advantage at 50.5%.

    That's it for now. I'm wondering if I have misinterpreted V777's idea of a B lapper and would like to know if other members define it as I have. Which is:

    B B P
    B P P
    B B this is a B lapper (in the 3 hole) and we predict B here next
    P B
    P P

    Thanks...another 100 shoes coming until I complete all 600 Zumma shoes.
     

  15. chewbaccarat

    chewbaccarat Member

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    I'm back with another 200 shoes of results run through V777's approach.

    More results (Zumma 301-400).

    Start of a column with B and betting B as the next result (in the 2 hole): 361W and 360L
    Start of a column with BB and betting P as the next result (in the 3 hole): 186W and 171L
    Start of a column with BP and betting B next result (3 hole): 182W and 175L
    Start column with BBB and bet B next (4 hole): 96W and 75L
    Start column with BBBP and bet P next (5 hole): 35W and 39L
    Start column with BPBP and bet P next (5 hole): 42W and 39L
    B Lapper for rows 3 and 4 (3 and 4 hole): 335W and 287L

    More results (Zumma 101-500).

    Start of a column with B and betting B as the next result (in the 2 hole): 359W and 340L
    Start of a column with BB and betting P as the next result (in the 3 hole): 180W and 179L
    Start of a column with BP and betting B next result (3 hole): 174W and 162L
    Start column with BBB and bet B next (4 hole): 100W and 80L
    Start column with BBBP and bet P next (5 hole): 32W and 47L
    Start column with BPBP and bet P next (5 hole): 36W and 45L
    B Lapper for rows 3 and 4 (3 and 4 hole): 295W and 299L

    A summary of all 500 shoes goes like this:

    Start of a column with B and betting B as the next result (in the 2 hole): 1570W and 1506L (51.0% win)
    Start of a column with BB and betting P as the next result (in the 3 hole): 816W and 739L (52.5% win)
    Start of a column with BP and betting B next result (3 hole): 768W and 725L (51.4% win)
    Start column with BBB and bet B next (4 hole): 399W and 339L (54.1% win)
    Start column with BBBP and bet P next (5 hole): 165W and 168Lv (49.5% win)
    Start column with BPBP and bet P next (5 hole): 188W and 182L (50.8% win)
    B Lapper for rows 3 and 4 (3 and 4 hole): 1372W and 1323L (50.9% win)

    So...at this stage (and there's still 200 shoes to go), I would discount the bets:

    1) Start of column with BB and bet B
    2) Start of column with BBBP and bet P
    3) 3/4 row B Lapper

    On the other hand, these bets seem to have some consistency and an favourable edge over random betting.

    a) Start of column with BB and bet P (52.5%)
    b) Start of column with BP and bet B (51.4%)
    c) Start of column with BBB and bet B (54.1%)
    d) Start of column with BPBP and bet P (50.8%)

    So I'm going to multiply the win % by their proportional bet amounts and get the sum.

    (1555/4156)52.5 + (1493/4156)51.4 + (738/4156)54.1 + (370/4156)50.8 = 52.2%

    Random betting gives a 50.68% win for B and 49.32% win for P (relatively speaking)

    In our examples, random betting should give: (1555/4156)49.32 + (1493/4156)50.68 + (738/4156)50.68 + (370/4156)49.32 = 50.05%

    Comparing both sets, betting on a), b), c) and d) gives an advantage of 2.15% over random betting. This may not seem like much but a 2% advantage is a greater advantage than card counters get in blackjack. Keep in mind this is only over 400 shoes but this represents about 28,000 hands of baccarat which is not a small number.

    I will input the last 200 shoes sometime in the next few days. I am open to others more experienced thoughts about all this.
     
  16. John Blerg

    John Blerg Well-Known Member 👹 Troll 👹

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    Ludacris and intense and it proves itself to break even at best or lose in the long run and never make money in real life at the real Casino using stuff like that but that's in my own opinion carry on
     
  17. chewbaccarat

    chewbaccarat Member

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    Thanks John:

    That's why I am testing it. This idea originally posted by Violater777.
     
  18. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

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    A few things to say here regarding the idea.

    500-600 shoes is way too few to test anything looking for any real consistency. You will find that different combinations appear in the + and then will go - on the next batch of testing. Really, when you think about it, it has to be like that otherwise we were all lied to regarding the probabilities which I think hold true. I mean computers have existed for a long time now. Didn't Thorpe or was it Julian Braun run extensive tests on Blackjack to find their edge and we have seen all the ramifications since towards that game. If there was some kind of edge in the way you guys are looking for, do you still think that people would be able to sit there with paper and pen at the Baccarat table. I am not trying to rain on anyone's parade, just stating my thoughts.
     
  19. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

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    Just taking the top three of your suggestions off the bat and running them through my simulator (100 shoes / 8 decks)

    BB P 881/1837 = 47.96%
    BP B 828/1706 = 48.53%
    BBB B 457/923 = 49.51%

    I ran a lot of simulations for Baccarat around a year ago. It's surprising (or maybe not) that even though Bank has a small edge, Player can still come out ahead sometimes +70 / +100 over 100 shoes. Then there are other times Bank comes out slightly ahead but you would have lost less betting player because of the 5% tax. You need to find another way rather than the type of 'conventional' approaches that never worked and realistically never can.
     
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  20. chewbaccarat

    chewbaccarat Member

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    Thanks Eugene. Of course, I agree we need to increase the n to thoroughly test V777's approach. In your simulation, were you grouping the results in columns of 5 which is the mainstay of the method?
     

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