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Roulette A Challenge 2 - for Turbo M

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by TurboGenius, Dec 30, 2016.

  1. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Ok - I ran off 3 cycles of spins and here are the results :

    [​IMG]

    This is a completely random example and very common to see actually.
    I'll just assign a number to 38 different people, it's easier to explain that way.
    I'll make the following comments, and you can of course tell me if I am right or wrong.
    Nothing too hard to start with :)

    1) The house edge is made up of this entire group of numbers combined for 3 cycles of spins.
    Meaning - the math and the house don't really care what numbers won and what lost - the combination of these outcomes equals the house edge regardless of who bets where. For my example - to make it simple - each player flat bet their "number" at $1.00 per spin for all 3 cycles.

    2) Player #4 achieved 7 wins (thanks to random and how not all numbers will equally appear with the same number of appearances). while Player #10 had no wins and lost ($1.00 x 114 spins).
    ALL players combined = a loss (for the players as a group) of -$228.00 (the house edge for each player combined betting every spin, flat betting for 3 cycles). In the image below you can clearly see the 5.26%

    [​IMG]

    (while it may be relevant later --- player #10 is at -$114.00 and player #4 is at +$138.00)

    Are what I said in 1) and 2) accurate ?
     
  2. Michaela

    Michaela Member

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    No argument from me TG. Please continue.
     
  3. Fossell

    Fossell Active Member

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    This should be fun!
    I predict a checkmate if TG or TM repeat themselves 3 times within 37 posts. ;)
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2016
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  4. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I'll throw in some additional data - not that it's needed, but if we're going into math everyone should have the math that goes along with it.

    This is how player #4's data looks as an individual :
    [​IMG]
    7 wins total and +121.05% (edge) instead of the -5.26%

    And here is player 10's data :
    [​IMG]
    0 wins and -100.00% (as compared to the -5.26%)
     
  5. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Web of Trust

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    Is the Michaela and Bayes ID now just a Michaela id?
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2016
  6. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Pay attention - keep up. lol
     
  7. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Web of Trust

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    Oh my! That sounds painful.

    [​IMG]

    How will we know whether we are talking to Bayes or his girlfriend if they share the same ID?
     
  8. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Ok, so let's move on. (Let's not derail a topic - everyone is free to begin their own thread, aren't they ?)

    The next post is about what happens when the players (instead of flat betting their number every spin) decide to use a system based on repeaters.
    Here are the same spins - the same players - still flat betting only on their number.
    The only difference is that each player begins betting on their number only once it shows.
    So here are the results to compare to the last 3 cycles. We haven't even put in a progression yet - the only thing that is different is that they are playing for a repeat to happen on their number (and they won't remove their bets - they'll just start betting their number once it shows and then every spin after that until the end of the 3 cycles)
    This is the data for all players combined (the house edge from the last test was exactly 5.26% as it should be)

    [​IMG]

    So ALL players ended as a group EVEN. The house edge 0.00 !
    This is a fact - it is not trickery or curve fitting, or reverse engineering - it is simply how random works.
    We are still at the basic level here. 2,808 bets of $1.00 each were placed - that's a pretty good amount
    considering each bet from each player was only $1.00 flat betting every spin.

    I want to also now look at the two examples from above - player 4 and player 10.

    Player 4 had to sacrifice 1 win and ended with 6 wins instead of 7.
    Player 4 ended with a balance of +$109.00
    Player 10 NEVER lost a bet. Player 10 ended even at +- $.00
    As compared to the last set of 3 cycles - Player 4 had won $138.00 and now has $109.00
    Player 10 had LOST $114.00 and has now lost $0.00
    By only adding this fist basic step of each player betting their number after it appears (and from then on)
    The group ended EVEN - The house edge 0.00%. 2,808 bets were placed after 114 spins and the house edge was 0.

    Truth ? Of course. More to come.
     
  9. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Web of Trust

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    Turbo,

    I can save you a great deal of time and grief. I have simulators that will simulate what you're doing over countless horizon size possibilities, and hit threshold requirements. For example, you can set it to bet if a number just hit, or if it's hit one, two, three, etc...hits above expectation and so on and so forth. It can even be set to bet amounts based on the number of times each number has hit. Betting amounts and thresholds can be set to basically any configuration. You can even set it to bet a different amount on every number that will rise and fall with each numbers hit horizons.

    Unfortunately over time what your doing will still turn into a net loser because your betting threshold is too low. In other words, "I've already been there and done that," as they say. Right now, it appears to you that it works because your sample sizes are so small. In the simulators I have access to millions of live US spins if you want to mess around on it sometime. You're kind of going in the right direction, but your missing some important stuff such as:

    1. Appropriate wheels.
    2. Playing conditions.
    3. Adequate pretrack with favorable chi square.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2016
  10. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Web of Trust

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    What will determine whether or not such a method will work is, how far outside the norm your wheel performs. In other words if the chi square is high, then the results for the method may be a win. However, if the chi is low, then the results will often result in a loss. Of course how the numbers fall, (the order in which they hit or cluster.) will be the biggest factor. However...since you really don't have a way of knowing whether or not the numbers will cluster without using physics, then you need another way in which to qualify wheels which are more likely to produce wins for you. This is where the later part of the post above comes in. (1,2,3) Numbers two and three are especially important for what you're attempting to do. Especially number 2... playing conditions. For example, you don't want to attempt what your doing on wheels that are alternating wheel spin direction without having a different subset of numbers on which to bet for each unique spin direction.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2016
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  11. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Active Member

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    Define "works"

    If he's winning, and it's working for him, AND he is enjoying the game doing it, that's all that matters
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2016
  12. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Web of Trust

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    Ghost,

    Works = Wins more than it loses over a statistically significant number of spins. You can simply toss chips on the layout and "enjoy it," but what really matter is winning.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2016
  13. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Active Member

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    Statistically significant number of spins is player specific and relative

    Not everyone plays for a living.

    "Significant number of spins" nope. No one person gets to decide what works for someone else on a casino game with negative expectations

    Realistically the only thing that quote on quote "works" is AP. And only a small percentage of roulette players will entertain that. You are barking up the wrong tree

    Ruff ruff
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2016
  14. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Web of Trust

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    Ghost,

    You are entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts. If a method works, then it is providing the player with an advantage. A losing method will lose for everyone after enough spins have passed. If you believe otherwise, then you are delusion, naive, and/or just plain stupid.

    Such an advantage is not subjective to feelings, and it does not depend on whether or not you are entertained or observed. When the player has a working method, the longer they play, the more they will win.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2016
  15. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Active Member

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    That's your definition of works

    If I win over 50 casino visits then to me that works. Regardless of the HE

    You rely on winning long term by beating the HE due to a wheel flaw

    Not me buddy
     
  16. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Active Member

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    You play differently

    End of story
     
  17. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Web of Trust

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    Ghost,

    You specifically are merely playing for a run of luck, nothing more. If you're winning over 50 casinos visits then you:

    1. Don't place many bets.
    2. Have had one or two lucky larger wins.
    3. Are exaggerating your success.
    4. And/or likely haven't won much.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2016
  18. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Active Member

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    3 out of 4 of what you just posted was opinion FYI.
     
  19. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Web of Trust

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    Ghost,

    What would you consider to be a working system? How many working systems do you currently have?
     
  20. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Active Member

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    A working system is a style of play that wins and loses BUT yields a profit because you have a stop loss

    A stop loss that insures you win more than lose
     

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