Roulette A question to make you think

Does your mummy know you're up late?

Or perhaps you should be getting ready for school?

I'm not saying people can win with this shit, I'm saying independence of spins is not worth shit.

Because it's all shit!... especially you. You're the biggest shit around here.

 

I thought Ken was a big shit, but compared to you he's just a little poop.

 

Kid, you obviously do not know that the clock is not the same all over the world, in Europe it is not the same as the US.
You want to appear genius by saying to Michaela who is the only person with common sense, that spins are not independent since we see numbers repeating in a sequence of 37 spins. You are a real noob and I suggest you bomburanus.

 

You're correct, Bombus, but that fact has nothing to do with independence. Apparently there's a subtlety here which many people seem to have difficulty with. It's not really subtle though, if you keep your thinking straight. Independence concerns at least TWO events. There is event A, and event B, and they are independent of each other, meaning that the probablity of B is in no way affected by the event A.

On the other hand, your statement about the impossibility of all numbers turning up in 37 spins refers to ONE event, so it doesn't make sense to say that this event (say A) is independent or not independent. Independent of what? There has to be another event B for it to be independent OF.

The mistake comes about when you "split" the event into two events and then try to argue that A is more likely GIVEN that B has occurred. Many, if not most systems are built on this fallacy. It includes the "gambler's fallacy" and also the reverse: believing that because something has already occurred it is more likely to occur in future spins.
That may be true in many situations but not in the random game of roulette; you don't KNOW what's more or less likely, that's why it's random.

In both cases you're trying to argue that some event B is more/less likely BECAUSE of A. So if some spins have passed and they are all different numbers, the low probability of event A seems to suggest that because this event B has occurred (that of the unique numbers) AND that the event A is true, we can infer that because probability is "conserved", it must have shifted more in favor of at least one repeat in the remaining spins. But probability is never conserved because there is no "memory" of past events.

Unfortunately, some people just can't or won't accept this truth.

 

I said independence is slave to probability.

I said independence will not stop numbers repeating in any given cycle.

I said people can't use it to win regardless.

I said you are a bagoshit.

 

No Michaela,

The second number out in a 37 spin cycle is independent of the first. The third number out is independent of the first two. The fourth is independent of the first three, etc, throughout the cycle. So there are 36 events to consider and after the first event, these 36 events are all independent of each other and any previous events also, but there WILL be repeats.

Obviously, you can further complicate this with a moving window of spin cycles.

 

Correct. There will be repeats. But a repeat isn't more or less likely because of previous events. That's the premise that many systems are predicated on, and was the point I was trying to make.

TG says that the previous event of all the numbers on the table showing except for one implies that this remaining number is LESS likely to hit on the next spin than if you had just bet a number randomly from spin one. Therefore these two events are connected (according to him). But if all events are independent this can't be true.

 

Michaela I admire your patience teaching those fruitcakes how the game works, but I am afraid they will never understand. You can tell them 18+18 will never be equal to 37, they will reply it does not matter because they use a martingale to overcome the house edge lol.

 

I agree Bago, the die-hard system addicts will probably never see it, probably because they don't want to. However, newbies might fall for the specious arguments, so I think it's important to spell out just why systems don't work in order to prevent the infection of ignorance (as Dr Sir Anyone eloquently puts it). People only believe that systems work because others say they do.

 

For the record I was just getting involved in the discussion.

I don't target repeats, I don't target hot numbers, and I don't target furthest back numbers. I just follow the last few spins of the wheel simply because it's a convenient arrangement for bet placement. To this I add a loss minimisation component and a subtle but steady progression that is sometimes dependent and sometimes independent of wins or losses.

In other words I play a very clever game that requires nothing more than skilled bet placement and luck.

If luck is good I win. If luck is bad I win later, or I cop a loss, then win later with deficit recovery.

Hey, it's roulette.

 

I know TG hates the term luck, but that's what it is in the end.

...Unless you have a better word?

It's the luck that gives you winners, but it's the skill that makes them count.

 

Hey Bottomfeeder Bombus.....still chasin other peoples success? (lol) Still last in line, still got your hands out, still venting cause you cant make a few extra units with this game? HaHaHa, fuckin loser.

Ken

 

You crack me up Ken.

I've been exposed to a whole lot of substandard people from a vast array of professions in my life.

Suffice to say, you are standing well back in a very long queue.

 

You have nothing Bottomfeeder Bombus. That is nothing to be embarrassed about. You know it, I know it and MOST of the regular posters know it. Sorry, no shame in being the town idiot.

Ken

 

Well actually, after a lengthy and successful career in prosthetic limb design and manufacture, I moved into domestic home improvement. As enjoyable as both those careers were, I decided to yet again re-invent myself with a move into the world of fine arts and antiques, as the history of all our earthly endeavours fascinates me. Best move I ever made apart from marriage.

I married well in 1991. An exceptionally beautiful French girl from Paris, a Playboy Bunny from the 1980's actually. I still have the magazine.

We have two adult son's. One a promising horticulturalist with the direction of the new world at his feet, and the other a classically trained and accomplished musician with also a university degree in Paramedics, who we can't convince to get a real job because he just wants to compose music... gotta love that!

We, my wife and I, own three houses in and around Sydney, Australia. One for living in, one for escaping to, and one for rent to afford housing for those less fortunate, and to help pay the bills.

I rent two double lock up garages that are full to the brim with all manner of objects de art (good stuff) that I have collected over the years, and occasionally sell to also pay bills.

I have a pure bred miniature poodle, 12 years old, that is a most precious companion to us all, he's licking my leg as I write, God love him.

We have a caravan/annex permanent housing in a park in the NSW Snowy Mountain Highlands on Lake Eucumbene for Mountain Holidays and trout fishing. The attraction there apart from the fishing is that my father helped pioneer the hydroelectric scheme of the 1950's.

I have a cellar full of fine wine...drinking one now.

I have a small motorhome vehicle for the times we feel like being gypsies and travelling around this fine land of Australia.

I have a world class (almost) casino Star City at my doorstep, soon to be two with Barangaroo in construction.

I could go on, but I think you get the picture, Ken. You see when you say, "You have nothing Bottomfeeder Bombus", it makes me chuckle just a bit.

hehe.

 

Oh, and I am the BOMB when it comes to playing roulette.

The only one I know who I can honestly vouch for as a winner. True story.

 

I thought I covered that in my first two sentences above, sheesh!

 

@Bottomfeeder Bombus >> You can not be serious? Yet you pop in and out of forums causing shit towards others?

Something I used to tell Scammer Steve and Turncoat Turner all the time >> find an active argument (involving myself) on any thread. Then, lets (as a team, lol) look back and FIND the beginning of it. Fun?

Ken

 

....and look at the bottom of page 1, Bago & Bombus...there they are. Doesn't matter what thread, what message board, even the year means nothing. This is who they are.

Ken

 

What on God's green earth are you going on about?