Poker AA is not the monster under your bed!!

Ok, I see more and more Posts about AA not holding up and people claiming they lose more times then they win with it….

I am calling BS on this right now!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Below will give you a little idea on some things, as these are real numbers from my experience playing AA in NLHE

Now I play mostly NLHE & PLO with a mix of PLHE, also the numbers below are only from NLHE MTTs & SNGs. I have not added in my cash hands.

586 times I have started with AA out of the 250,000 or so hands I took for this experiment from PT4.

So I am getting dealt AA 1 in about every 426 hands

71 times out of 586, I had lost Chips with this hand (this includes Folding them; yes, that's right, you will find times you need to Fold AA depending on the texture of the Flop, Turn, River)

So the break down is this I am winning 7 out of 8 times I hold AA.

And I am willing to bet that you are not losing 50% of the time with AA.

Think about this, as most poker players will remember the bad beats over the wins, and a player who has the skills to understand the game and the math (Math does not LIE) does not think twice about the loss with AA as they already know they will win way more then lose with AA.

I guess what I trying to say is the sooner you are not bothered by the Beats, the sooner your game will improve

I spent my first 2 years playing poker out of control as I could not let the Beats go. I spent more time learning from other players and I started to realize that the beats are just part of the game and nothing good comes from harping on them.

WE ALL SUCK OUT ON OTHERS AND WE GET SUCKED OUT ON!!!!

That is how the game rolls, so the quicker you learn to accept that the quicker you will be on track to make more money and better focus on your game.


The more time you spend thinking on the Beats you take, the more you will 2nd guess your self.


May the Felt stay soft, and the Chips Pile High


Brian

 

You are right Brian, I do NOT lose 50% of the time with AA...I lose 90% of the time!!!

...of course that is probably because I only bet AA when it is a monochrome board, and I have none of the suit.

 

i looked at my PT4 and out of the times ive been dealt AAi have WTSD 81.71 and WSD 85.07 with one nickname i use at ACR with just under 14,000 hands posted that is my stats for AA......Remember AA is just a pair after the flop, after the flop u have to have the ability to see the dangers and FOLD if need be

 

Hi, Brian --

Your attitude about not being bothered by the bad beats is right on target. And you're also right that, in practice, aces won't lose more than 50% of the time.

Let's examine a pair of aces in hold 'em. Often when we go by our table experiences, the truth becomes distorted. Over time, you'll get aces as a starting hand once in 221 hands. That means in a nine-handed game, before anyone looks at cards, there's about a 4% chance that anyone holds aces. Aces is the most profitable hand, by far, in hold 'em. A pair of kings is equally rare, but only earns about 56% as much -- an average of all opponents of various skills.

Yes, you get drawn out on more often against many opponents. But even if all opponents stubbornly played to the showdown, aces would still win about 35% of the time. That means it would lose about 65% of the time. That absurd scenario points out, of course, that a starting pair of aces will always be played profitably, although it may theoretically lose more than half the time. In practice, it doesn't. (Actually, there are rare situations in which aces are unprofitable to play in tournaments, due to the proportionally distribution of the prize pool. But there is chip-gaining profit in the hand itself.)

The object isn't to protect aces. Protecting a hand is seldom a valid consideration in winning poker. Successful poker is based on inviting risk with an advantage, not avoiding it. Specifically, aces make most profit when played against four opponents, although you lose more often.

If you're playing to reduce risk, poker isn't a good game to choose.

Straight Flushes,
Mike Caro

 

Spoken from years of experience and wisdom.

Mike is so correct, those who will tell you (if you dare to listen to their rants), that aces are the devil, usually "don't play them well!" That's a stone cold fact, no BS.

Sure aces get cracked even when make the "correct" decision, but that's just because poker is not always a 100% sure thing. Someone (from Planet Poker), once told me that players making the MOST correct decisions are those winning tournaments and cash games. Now, if you can guess the name of this famous inter-planetary person, you found my "TELL."

A pic. from the distant past....

 

Thanks all for your replies

I wrote this a year or two ago based off seeing people daily in the different poker forums complain about how they lose more then 50% of the time with AA.

Mike a pleasure to have you take some time and give us your thoughts on this, much appreciated

Al was can I say you help me more then any other with my poker game over the last 10 years always grateful when you chime in.

Dave you crack me up and I was shocked I did not have to read a book from you, might be shortest post I ever seen you make

John I have seen you game grow over the years keep doing was you do that big score coming.


May the Felt stay soft, and the Chips Pile High

Brian

 

I totally agree too. There's always going to be risks and the key is to set up situations where the risk/reward is in our favor. The more times we have the advantage, the more we are going to win long-term... our overall goal.

 

My largest BB/100 in cash games is with AA. I lose my share of pots with it to be sure, but in the end I win with aces about the proper % of the time and make the most profit of any starting hand with it.

 

I wholeheartedly agree as well. In any endeavor, there will inevitably be risks, but the crucial aspect lies in establishing scenarios that tilt the risk/reward ratio in our favor. The greater the number of instances where we hold the advantage, the higher our chances of achieving long-term success... which aligns perfectly with our ultimate objective.

 

I don't have a count of as many hands as you do, but from personal experience I've won with AA far more often than I've lost. Yes, I've had bad beats, all players have had them. And they will continue to happen. But there will always be more wins with AA.