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TurboGenius Advantage of Repeaters explained - part 1 - 2020

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Occupation:
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    Location:
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    I've mentioned it too many times already, but perhaps explaining it in a new way will
    make it easier to understand properly.

    Let's start with the basics and the facts that we know (predictable)
    A repeater will happen.
    This is a no-brainer, of course a number will repeat.

    Anyone interested in the data and who has tested this will know that on a 00 table,
    you can expect the first repeat to happen around spin 9 on average.
    Sure, sometimes it will be on spin #2 and sometimes it will be on spin #24 etc etc.
    The average spin when this will happen is known though.

    Now lets roll off spin looking at it with this info...

    If we were trying to "guess" which number will appear on this first spin....
    or "which number will have 1 hit first", we can't. We have a 1 in 38 chance
    of being right. No advantage here so no bet would be placed.

    #23 - so let's begin betting on it as it is the ONLY possible number that can repeat.
    #13 - now, since we know a repeat will happen, and it can ONLY be a number that has
    already appeared.... we have only 2 possible locations, we are on one of them (#23)
    So we have a 1 in 2 chance of being right if the repeat happens on the next spin.....
    #24 - now we have a 1 in 3 chance of winning on the next spin, if a repeat happens.
    We aren't trying to guess at 1 in 38 because there aren't 38 possible numbers that we can
    win on, and no number can reach 2 appearances unless they have already appeared once...
    #20 - now we have a 1 in 4 chance of winning on the next spin, if a repeat happens.
    #23 - and we win.
    Sure, there were 34 other numbers that could have appeared - but only 4 of them could
    have been a repeater - and we know a repeat will happen.
    =====================================
    Start again...

    #12 - we play it.
    #28 - our chances are 1 in 2 if a repeat happens next.
    #6 - 1 in 3
    #8 - 1 in 4
    #36 - 1 in 5
    #4 - 1 in 6
    #9 - 1 in 7
    #24 - 1 in 8
    #1 - 1 in 9
    #33 - 1 in 10 (see that our chance of winning is getting less and less on every spin
    that is a new number - yet our chances in reality are NEVER 1 in 38)
    #13 - 1 in 11
    #14 - 1 in 12
    #11 - 1 in 13
    #17 - 1 in 14
    #14 - a repeat and we lost as we were on 12. We ended with a loss on a 1 in 14 bet.
    Start again
    #23 - we play it.
    #25
    #4
    #27
    #0
    #15
    #14
    #28
    #32
    #21
    #20
    #24
    #36
    #28 a repeat and a loss
    Start again
    #15 - playing it
    #34
    #27
    #24
    #6
    #34 a repeat and a loss (our balance is +-0 units)
    Start again
    #33 - playing it
    #31
    #2
    #25
    #15
    #8
    #35
    #11
    #10
    #25 a repeat and a loss
    Start again
    #10 - playing it
    #2
    #3
    #29
    #35
    #8
    #23
    #3 a repeat and a loss
    Start again
    #33 - playing it
    #16
    #1
    #6
    #22
    #36
    #20
    #32
    #0
    #35
    #35 a repeat and a loss
    Start again
    #4 - playing it
    #36
    #35
    #1
    #17
    #27
    #12
    #34
    #5
    #2
    #18
    #31
    #2 a repeat and a loss
    Start again
    #25 - playing it
    #6
    #2
    #16
    #12
    #32
    #19
    #31
    #25 a repeat and a win
    Start again
    #6 - playing it
    #29
    #25
    #35
    #20
    #13
    #14
    #19
    #35 a repeat and a loss
    Start again
    #7 - playing it
    #14
    #18
    #35
    #13
    #34
    #28
    #2
    #26
    #12
    #22
    #11
    #5
    #7 - a repeat and a win

    We are at +5 units without using a progression

    =====================================

    The losing sessions outnumber the winning ones as expected...
    I carried this out for 77 sessions and here is the data -
    I used a very simple progression.
    On a losing session (a repeat without a win) I increased the unit size by 1.
    On a winning session I returned the unit size bet to 1.
    Please note that this was a quick progression I picked and certainly not the best one
    to use.

    Over 77 sessions :

    There were 708 total spins.
    There were 77 sessions.
    There were 16 wins.
    Average session length was 9.19 spins.
    Outcome was +270 units

    ======================================

    [​IMG]

    ======================================================

    Part 2 to follow, detailing how this is applied properly
     
  2. BETJACK

    BETJACK Active Member

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    I like this POST.
    Simple and
    Clear Explanation
    of the Concept.
    waiting for part 2.
    :)
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020
    mr j likes this.
  3. Smitridel

    Smitridel Active Member

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    Nice to see you going down the road of averages..
    I think notto/naughty can make significant contributions as well given his extensive study on averages.

    A question though: why bet only the first?
    Why not the first 4 or 5?
     
    TurboGenius likes this.
  4. BETJACK

    BETJACK Active Member

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    When you change the quantity to which numbers you bet, you change the probability of the bet and the profit. That's not our goal. Then it won't be the same bet as at the beginning of the game.
     
  5. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    There is more to come in the next part - but this initial post was to drive home
    the fact that playing for a repeater doesn't mean your chances are 1:38,
    it's more 1:X Where X is the amount of numbers that have appeared once.

    By spin 9 (on average) you should have had a repeater (on average) and a win or loss situation.
    At most your chances would have been 1 in 9 of being right (on average).
    And yes it could be 20+ spins without a repeat so I have to use the averages.

    We had a winning session (on average) 1 in 4.8 tries/sessions.

    Not only are we incredibly far below a 1:38 chances, we are winning
    1 in 4.8 attempts when the average chance of a win or loss is 1 in 9
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020
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  6. Smitridel

    Smitridel Active Member

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    I fully agree that Session management is paramount to this type of betting.

    Im really not comfortable with the odds of 1 in 10 numbers repeating hence I suggested more but I'll keep up and test extensively.
    Looking forward to part 2!
     
  7. Smitridel

    Smitridel Active Member

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    Why do we need to start a new stream of numbers everytime?
    If you count up to lets say 10 spins nd you have a lost session (other repeat came), start betting with the repeated number that came since you sat down disregarding the first, like you just sat down at the table.

    The reason that Im asking is that one mans 10 numbers is another one's 9 or 8 or 7 numbers depending on the time they sat on the table.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2020

  8. BETJACK

    BETJACK Active Member

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    I think ... if we do what you say ... then we bet the numbers that are already Hot Numbers ... and we don't want to do that
     
  9. Smitridel

    Smitridel Active Member

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    Nope they're not.
    Since each cycle of 10-12 spins (untill 1 repeat) is a cycle on its own.

    Thats why I pointed out that one man's 10 spin cycle is another mans 8 spin cycle - it depends on when each of them sat down and started counting spins.
     
  10. Smitridel

    Smitridel Active Member

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    Here is an example for clarification:

    So ok, this was a lost session.
    You now start after the first appearance of the repeated number 28 taking into account what the stream has already brought you. In that case it would be:

    #32
    #21
    #20
    #24
    #36
    #28

    Now I dont have the rest of the stream so I wouldnt know if we would have won or lost.
     
  11. BETJACK

    BETJACK Active Member

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    I understand what you mean.
    but

    [​IMG]

    How is this done?
    How the Average Remains Less Than 1:38.
     
  12. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    Small sample.


    When the repeater comes at spin 9, the balance is equal to Zero.
     
  13. Smitridel

    Smitridel Active Member

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    What do you mean?
     
  14. BETJACK

    BETJACK Active Member

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    Bago is betting ALL numbers... that appear.
     

  15. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    Of course, that's what TG wrote, one of the 8 first numbers will on average repeat at spin 9.
     
  16. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    If you sit at the table and the first spin is n°1, it will repeat on average at spin 38 (single zero).
     
  17. BETJACK

    BETJACK Active Member

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    We are trying to bet on numbers that are better than 1:38. Because we want to win.
     
  18. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    For that, Turbo needs to find a psychic power in him or make a time machine that travels in the past to know which numbers will appear in the next 37 spins.
    Betting on a number that already appeared do not give you an edge whatsoever, the following average interval will always be the n° of pockets on the wheel.
     
  19. Smitridel

    Smitridel Active Member

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    LOL no you are doing it wrong.
    If you look at the example sessions he's just betting first hit only.

    Feel free to interpret it as you like but the instructions were crystal clear this time so you should know that you're going down a different method than the one described above.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2020
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  20. BETJACK

    BETJACK Active Member

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    @Bago .I think ... The biggest problem is that you constantly change numbers and pockets ... When we talk about numbers we talk about numbers. When we catch pockets we catch pockets ... I don't think you can have both at the same time in one session.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2020

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