Roulette Ask Me Anything About Betting the EC's (Even Chances)

So you confirmed that it is no worse than proportional to √n which agrees with the math.

It would be good to track when those switches occur as well, as based on the ArcSine law the lead changes are most probable at the start and the end, as it's basically a smile curve where mid series it's at it lowest and lead changes are least likely.

Also tracking as a proportion each series how long it spends on one side each session and confirm if that distribution aligns with the math as well.

So what are thoughts on this interesting aspects of random walks?

 

Agree, and they don't want to be tied down to any kind of statement other than handwaving it away.

Hence why I say "reading tea leaves and tarot cards", but it very well may be the 'intuition' escape card or perhaps voices, whispers, precognition, aliens, angels demons, or god?

It's basically mysticsm by any other name.

If there are rules to reading randomess then they can be tested, if it has no rules or definitions that can be tested then really what value can RR have other than being a Gizmotron obfuscation of luck.

 

Want me back calling you an idiot? OK. Your assumptions of what RR is are flawed in the first place. You are too cool for school to discover that much. There are rules for RR. They are clearly stated in the RR thread. You are a jerk, so you don't get secret double probation tutoring. You must do what all people have done and read it several times to understand it and to practice. That entire process is a test. The outcome for the person taking the test is in the RR thread too. Here is the problem. It's like the game of golf. You must be honest and call a penalty on yourself if you screw up the test. So let's see if you can do it?

Two mathematical dickheads walk into a bar. One says to the other, they don't sell pumpernickel rice on jerky here. Yeah, I know says the other dickhead. I guess we will have to go to the paint store and tell them that they need to stop talking about comparing apples and oranges with the widget experts in the MBA classes. Everyone knows that when you mix jerky with jerks at a paint store you get pictures of yourself in pastels and rainbow backdrops. Everything gets serial and euphoric.

 

What rule has Turbo got to bet for repeats? Is there any rule to bet the 37 starting non-hits.
But there is plenty of collected data.
One piece of data by a person called Luck of the Irish posted at RF; That from a million spins a 37 cycle gets 23/34/25 of the starting 37.
There you've gained a piece of information for nothing.
He even gave repeats info.
Take those 2 pieces and you will be able to bet for repeats or non-hits.
If you lose, you have only yourself to blame.

 

The probability of repeats and LOTT is quite simple to calculate.

Every number has 1/37 probability and that's the true odds of the event, so the long term average its 37/1 = 37 spins (by flipping the probablity) for a number to appear.

The probability of the first number appearing is 37/37= 1 as we don't care what number it is, the probability is always 100%. This now leaves 36 numbers that haven't hit.

So that means the probability of the next unique number is 36/37, and this takes on average 37/36 spins (1.02 spins) which is ever so slighlty more than 1 spin as the first number can repeat occasionally. This now leaves 35 unique numbers that haven't hit.

And likewise the probability of the third unique number is 35/37 as there are 35 unique numbers remaining, and this takes on average 37/35 spins (1.05 spins), again we just flip the probability fraction to get the spin count.

We expect each unique number to appear with the following probabilities 37/37=1, 36/37, 34/37, 33/37, 32/37 ... 2/37, 1/37.

In terms of number of spins we just flip those probabilities to get the required spin counts for each unique number to appear and add them all up.

(37/37 + 37/36 + 37/35 + 37/34 + ... 37/2 + 37/1).

You will notice every number has 37 on the top so we can take that common term out and get:
37 × (1/37 + 1/36 + 1/35 + 1/34 + ... 1/2 + 1/1)

Which equals 155 spins on average.

And we can also just calculate to say 10 unique numbers:

37 × (1/37 + 1/36 + 1/35 + 1/34 + 1/33 + 1/32 + 1/31 + 1/30 + 1/29 + 1/28) = 11.47 spins on average.

And for 23 unique numbers it's the 37 spin cycle:
37 × (1/37 + 1/36 + 1/35 + 1/34 + 1/33 + 1/32 + 1/31 + 1/30 + 1/29 + 1/28 ... 1/15 + 1/14) = 37.79

Which is why the LOTT says in 37 spins we get 23 unique numbers, with 14 unhit numbers meaning that of the 23 that hit, we have 14 repeaters in a 37 spin cycle on average.

The statistical evidence confirms exactly what the math predicts.

We can also expect on average that approximately 14 of the 23/24 numbers in the first cycle are included the second cycle with 9 numbers from the first batch of unhit numbers now being hit.

Basically every 37 spins trades out 9 numbers for 9 new numbers, on average. After 155 spins, we cover all 37 numbers on average.

Again these are averages, but they are fairly stable norms. Yes there will be slight variance and even outliers, given a billion spins we can expect to see rare events such as a number to not hit in over 400 spins, and we may see up to 32 unique numbers in 37 spins.

Hope this demystifies the law of the third and allows deeper analysis of the phenomenon.

 

Huh? You need an "under construction" sign while you build a cogent argument.

 

Don't hold your breath. The mythboyz don't do logic.

 

Go jump in a lake. Two mathematical dickheads have everything explained to them and they still need their mom to dress them.

 

Agreed. Smart players exploit windows of short-term action. To my knowledge, no one has discovered a way to sit down at a non-stop table contest with the House, betting every hand/spin, staying in profit, raking billions until the House 86s them from the property. I don't think AP Blackjack players have figured out how to do that either -- playing every hand at a single table around the clock for 168 hours (1 week) and walking away in profit. The House uses math to win this extended contest, just as Steve Wynn has explained.

 

Nor will they ever, it's not possible.

 

Helo Spike.

I think electronic roulette can hit any pre set number if they want .

Please confirm ?

 

Excellent mathematical articulation of the "Law of Third". The first I've seen.

Ioannis Kavouras, an author and pro Roulette player, has written articles about the Law of Third and how to use it to develop Roulette strategies. He published a strategy called: "Simply the Best Roulette System for Dozens or Columns", which I've been using lately with good success. You can Google it (this site won't let us include links). It's about using the last 3 results to predict the next result. And he offers some suggested Money Management (MM) strategies to go with it.

 

We prefer the law of the fifth by Johny Walker .

 

I'm wondering how serious this guy is. In his instructions he doesn't mention one time sleeping dozens or sleeping columns, which happen all the time and greatly effect how you bet. He spends 80% of the article on progressions. This tells me he's not very serious about actually playing this because one of the first things you notice is that dozens and columns can sleep for really long times and the fact he doesn't mention this tells me he doesn't play this.

 

Whenever I drink and combine Johnny Walker's Law of Fifth with the Law of Third, I end up with Law of ZEROs.

 

Really! Just thought I'd mention it again. When a dozen or a column sleeps you can bet 50 / 50 on one of the other two active dozens and it pays two to one. Not using a sleeping dozen is like being a math oriented expert at knowing what does not work and celebrating it's virtues.

 

We do not get spooked by the zeros . They are t here for a reason .


Cannot stand the heat...... get out of the kitchen .

 

Well, he doesn't use the words "Sleeping" Dozen, but in his first paragraph, he does include a link to his companion article: "The Law of the Third" by Ioannis Kavouras. You can click his link or Google this to see that article.

"Sleeping" dozens is essentially what Kavouras is describing with his "The Law of the Third", right? ...even though he doesn't use that term "sleeping".

The way I interpret Kavouras' articles is to focus on the two dozens that are NOT sleeping. And in particular, bet on the dozen in the middle, meaning the one that isn't fully asleep, and not the one fully awake.

For example:

If the last 3 results are

XXY

bet on Y, not X, and not the fully asleep Z.

 

Yes, agreed, I'm not complaining about the green pockets. I meant the "Law of NOTHING", is the product when I combine drinking with ANY gambling strategy. I lose all my money and end up with nothing, except a heaping helping of Humble Pie.

 

I'm curious to know who here soley plays EC with La Partage rule?

This rule reduces the house edge to 1.35% EU/FR roulette. Do or Do not the Math. EC with La Partage is the most optimal bet on roulette.