Roulette Ask Me Anything About Betting the EC's (Even Chances)

The basic principle is to bet more when the odds are better.

However, when making the bet, we very rarely know our real chances and whether or not there is an advantage and what it is...
All this makes the Kelly game a bit dubious. For example in poker it is often possible to calculate quite accurately, but not in roulette.

Even in sports betting, we rarely know the real situation.

In short, without knowing the real situation we can bet too much or too little, distorting the whole Kelly system.

So I had to invent something, that does not allow big distortions...

 

Tourists are not eligible.

But if you have residency then you get unemployment benefits but there is a waiting period of 2 years if you're a new resident before you are eligible.

There are many long term unemployed who are could work if they were inclined and are without any mental or health issues or childcare responsibilities (eg single mothers). If you want to be a dole bludger as they are known here you will probably have to go through the motions to attend some job placement type activities to keep the funds flowing. A minor inconvenience.

For those who genuinely cannot work there are various pension schemes and allowances.

Residents are also eligible for aged pension if you lived here 10 years.

 

Many will use half Kelly because of the uncertainty in their edge.

This is a good paper by a Joseph Randall called "How to beat the casinos" it includes a study comparing Kelly and some other progessions. Well worth a read for what it covers:

https://sites.oxy.edu/lengyel/M330/report_Randall_JF GAMBLING.pdf​

The Contra-D’Alembert and the Reverse Labouchere do quite well, although Kelly has by the the largest gains of all:

 

Too many to remember over the years. And in brick-and-mortar casinos but you don't really see them anymore, not around here anyway. 10 years ago they were everywhere. People don't like them because it's too hard to win because they're rigged

 

No you put too much time in for too little return.

 

Don't worry you'll never meet me. I guarantee it.

 

Random outcomes never conform to anything, how could they. But it's a fact that certain patterns appear and disappear on a regular basis in random outcomes and they can be exploited if you know what you're doing. You cannot predict anything in random outcomes all you can do is make educated guesses based on experience and observation.

 

Pinnacle Sports accurately predict the outcome 99.7% of the time. Probably worth using them as the "true odds" when looking for +EV opportunities.

 

The only progression I use is the parley. I take my winnings from the current bet and let it ride. And I do that three or four times and RNG lets me get away with it for a while but it always stops me in my tracks. Because I have an eighty percent hit rate I tend to win in streaks of 4 or 5 in a row. In the early days of roulette and Europe the parley was just about the only progression anybody used cuz you can get really lucky and when you lost you only lost one unit from your bankroll. But if you won three or four in a row you could go home a winner.

 

I put almost no time in for exactly the return I want. How is that not perfect. And who are you to dictate what my return should be. How did I live my life without you telling me what to do. Why do you care so much, I don't care what you do. In fact I cannot imagine caring about anything you do.

 

Because you said you beat roulette and you haven't.

I'm glad you believe it's a fair trade for your time. Keep it up or don't, or do whatever people like you do in their sunset years.

 

Spike has a plan to cashout at pearly cashiers cage before then.

 

But I pretty much have and it's not that difficult. You're just not willing to do the work. The title of this thread is ask me questions but you won't even do that because you don't know what questions to ask that's how pathetic you are. You know for a fact that I have not beat roulette but you do not know the questions to ask me to prove that. If this thread had been started by Gizmo I would know exactly what questions to ask him because I myself have beaten the game. I would know after just a few of his answers if he had or not. So all you have to go on is your faulty opinion which is worthless. You know nothing about the game or you would know what to ask me to prove that I have not beaten it. All you know is your stupid math which is great for figuring out the casino side but is totally lacking in beating the game. So your opinion that I have not beaten roulette is less than worthless

 

Beats wanking my wanker in that hot box called Australia like you do. Have you started learning Chinese yet for when they take over? Cuz look around, it's coming.

 

Sure maybe that is a good article, but here is one moment - we must believe, or maybe even be sure, that this guy can do better on roulette.

I do not know him, but I know several who wins and I know how they do. So for me looks much more logical to believe - what I saw...

But usually, I like himself all calculate and can say that I found many mistakes in similar articles.

I do not much believe in those who write books about how to win especially when they are sold for a few bucks...

 

& only getting better at it.

 

& that's what Spike is saying .. essentially;
bet none when in no supposed & perceived advantage .. & bet when the variance type shows/indicates termporal persistence.

 

Betfair is also extremely accurate because so many people use it (wisdom of the crowd). The easiest and simplest way for anyone to make a guaranteed profit from betting is to check Betfair's odds shortly before the event and then scour the bookmaker sites for any odds which are higher. The higher the discrepancy the more you should stake. It's better to not pick big teams or events because the bookies keep a close eye on their odds, instead go for the lesser known names and less popular sports, like greyhound racing. But be careful not to choose anything too obscure otherwise the odds on offer won't reflect the true odds so well.
The problem with this system is that they WILL close your accounts when you start to make profits.

 

You must get your news from the funny pages.

We been fucking their shit up if you didn't notice.

Who called for an investigation into the origins of Covid in China? It was Australia who poked them in the eye with a sharp stick.

Who keeps holding them to the fire for human rights? Hint It's not your country.

The fact is China need us far more than we need them and when China act like belligerent cunts they just hurt themselves and we make more money.

They need iron ore and nowhere on earth can supply anywhere close to the volume that Australia can. Plus they also need our agricultural exports so people don't starve.

It's tough to be China when they need everything we have. We get rich and they must pay the asking price.

Everything they do backfires, and our economy gets stronger in the process:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/0...ling-trade-sanctions-coronavirus-geopolitics/​

Maybe your country can learn a few lessons on how to beat a super power at their own game, but I doubt that is remotely possible with your geriatric president.

I'm not worried about China, I'm far more worried about America.

 

Yes matched betting is a good hustle while it lasts.