Roulette Ask The Croupier

Thanks for trying to tell me what an arithmetic mean is. But it is divided by the count of values not the total.

You can count right? There are only up to 24 bets made. Not 25.

You accept the first bet is made 100% of the time.
You accept that to lose 24 bets in a row the probability is (36/37)^24 = 51.8%

The probability to get to level 24 is (36/37)^23 = 53.2%
The probability to lose the 24th bet is 36/37 = 97.3%
The probability to win the 24th bet is 1/37 = 2.7%

So to get to the 24th level and THEN lose the bet we multiply both probabilities together.

53.2% × 97.3% = 51.8%
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Who would have thought my math is right.

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Given you accept that to lose 24 bets in a row the probability is (36/37)^24 = 51.8%

That means the probability to win is 100-51.8= 48.2%

Yet the probability to win on that last bet is just 1/37 = 2.7%
The probability to get to level 23 and win that last bet is much smaller it is (36/37)^23 × 1/37 = 1.44%

I wonder where all the other wins occur? hint: the prior 23 bets can win too which is why the last bet is not always played and why the probability to play and THEN win it is just 1.44%.

You still don't understand that each level has a probability to be reached and not every level is played if a bet wins.

But like an idiot you keep thinking there are 25 bets and that we always play all 24 of them. I can't help but take the piss.

 

You can't change a levels probability reached to the probability before a bet on that level. The equation you used for column 14 = column 10 × column 11

The set of values in column 10 is the E.V. after losing on that level. e.g. cum. bet E.V. level 2 = $1.59. You erroneously multiplied column 10's bet E.V. values by the probability before losing that level's bet.

1.59 × (36÷37)¹ is wrong. 0.78 + 0.81 means after you lost on level 2. To use 1.54 as a value in your -8.10 average. Actually means nothing. That isn't the monetary loss in roulette.

You're actually a dope
Bet 1 (36÷37)¹
Bet 2 (36÷37)²
Bet 3 (36÷37)³
Bet 4 (36÷37)⁴
Bet 5 (36÷37)⁵
Bet 6 (36÷37)⁶
Bet 7 (36÷37)⁷
Bet 8 (36÷37)⁸
Bet 9 (36÷37)⁹
Bet 10 (36÷37)¹⁰
Bet 11 (36÷37)¹¹
Bet 12 (36÷37)¹²
Bet 13 (36÷37)¹³
Bet 14 (36÷37)¹⁴
Bet 15 (36÷37)¹⁵
Bet 16 (36÷37)¹⁶
Bet 17 (36÷37)¹⁷
Bet 18 (36÷37)¹⁸
Bet 19 (36÷37)¹⁹
Bet 20 (36÷37)²⁰
Bet 21 (36÷37)²¹
Bet 22 (36÷37)²²
Bet 23 (36÷37)²³
Bet 24 (36÷37)²⁴

 

You pay $29 when you lose not 78c.

The spreadsheets have gone to your head.

 

E.V. = the value expected to lose when you repeat a bet cycle over a long series. Lol w/ your 24 bet level progression. Betting fractions of your bankroll doesn't evade the cumulative bet E.V. All you have is 51.8% probability to lose 98.2% br.

 

Msc Beyond Learning. Your master's degree in projecting denial.

Which is Less?

508.76 or 500

 

At first I conflated the probability of win on level 24 as 48.2% but its Not. (Pr of win is independent).
51.8% is your overall probability of losing²⁴.
48.2% was your overall probability of not losing 24 times in a row.

You're gambling on level 24 at -$926 br and have to win a $56 bet with a 2.7% chance.

 

HT
HH
TH
TT

1/4 is the overall probability of getting tails on both flips.

Muppet.

 

1/2 is the probability you get heads (or tails) on the first flip.

100% = 1/1 or 2/2 or 37/37

 

0.78+1.55+2.30+3.04
+3.75+4.43+5.09+5.73
+6.36+6.97+7.56+8.16
+8.73+9.29+9.83+10.36
+10.88+11.38+11.87
+12.35+12.81+13.26
+13.70+14.13
__________________________

24

= 8.09625

= all your miscalculated losses.

 

Someone is watching too much Veritasium.

 

@TwoUp

You should call yourself -OneUp

 

Wrong. You don't understand that EV (column 10) is the expected value of both winning AND losing.

The EV in column 10 has no consideration of the probability to reach that level, it is just the bet value multiplied by the house edge.

The house edge is 78 cents. Again you are not competent to have a discussion with as you continue to missundertand EV and what house edge is and confuse it with losing a bet.

Another word for your condition is moron.

 

They are the expected value "E.V." As per what the column says. Does the column say E.V. or does it say Loss?

Again you don't understand what EV or house edge is and confuse it with a loss.

 

Interesting. I said you stop on the first head. Did you not read?

I also said what is the probability of flipping the coin a second time. It is 1/2.

You have quoted a completely irrelevant probability.

Here is the post:

And there you go getting a coin flip confused.

The common themes and mental problems you have:

• Understanding what stop on a win means
• Understanding EV is not the value of a losing bet. EV is calculated on the win and the loss expectations.
• Understanding EV is the house edge and every bet win or lose has paid house edge
• House edge and indeed the EV is only paid on actual money risked. The bets you do not make do not pay house edge.
• Reading and comprehension
• Counting
• Adding
• Subtracting
• Multiplication
• Logic
• Honesty

 

Haha E.V is positive or negative in your case negative.

The expected value of any bet in EU roulette (excluding EC + LP) is -2.7%. This isn't hard.
$29 × (36÷37)
$30 × (36÷37)
Blah blah.

You're tha guy that's invented a -8.10 average E.V. you're not losing cents I've repeated this so many times, your first bet is almost equivalent to the 1000u E.V; what you should expect to lose if you wager equal bet sizes 100 times.

1000 × (1÷37)

 

You are not competent to discuss math. It is beyond your grasp.

You still have not ANWERED THE QUESTIONS

I mean it. Put up or shut up. Those questions are important to establish that you are genuine and competent. Clearly you are not.

 

WOW.


TH = 1/4

 

Answer the questions.

 

What Question? Hahaha

The E.V for a straight up

35×(1÷37)-1×(36÷37) = -.027