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Roulette Ask The Croupier

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by 6probability9, May 10, 2022.

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  1. 6probability9

    6probability9 Member

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    Challenge anybody to REFUTE that Even Chances + La Partage is the optimal bet selection in roulette with the lowest house edge of -1.35%.



    Come One. Come All.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2022
  2. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    The EV is the house edge at each level. It is the win amount multipled by the probability to win minus the amount risked multiplied the probablity to lose. It represents neither a win nor loss event, but both combined to compute the house edge.

    A more direct calculation is just multiply the bet by 1/37 to compute the net EV. We accumulate the house edge that would be paid at every level as that is exactly what happens. Each bet is accumulating more house edge paid.

    So what decides that a level is played? What is the probability that we play at ANY of the the levels?

    We know that the last level to be played means we had 23 prior losses. Probability for that is (36/37)^23.

    We know the level before the last is only played because it had 22 loses before it. Probability for that is (36/37)^22.

    ...and so on down to the very first bet

    We know the first level is always played, so it's probabilty is 100%.

    Every level is played based on the probability of losing all of the prior levels.

    Every time the series is attempted it will not play every level every time. There is a 48.2% chance of winning and it is certainly not the last level that is responsible for all the wins as its probabilty is just 1.44%. The other 46.7% of wins occur from wins on the prior levels.

    The cumulative EV when mulplied by the probability of reaching that level provides the expected value for that level.

    Earlier levels will be visited far more often than the later levels, just like flipping a coin the probability of a streak continuing is always 1/2. In this case the probability of the loss streak continuing is 36/37.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2022
  3. 6probability9

    6probability9 Member

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    Negative (-) .027 represents the loss expected value of 1u. Straight-up: 35×(1÷37)-1(36÷37)= -.027

    The house edge is 1/37 = 2.7% because of this every bet in roulette has a negative E.V.
    Winning - Losing is calculated in E.V.

    Negative.
    -1/37
    So address;
    column 10 x column 11 = column 14

    My Question is in column 14 you use -$26.54 × (36/37)²³. -$26.54 is the sum E.V. of 24 levels = (36÷37)²⁴, how can you multiply 23 losses by the $26.54 total of all your losses to get a -$14.13 on the 24th "cum. Level" E.V.


    48.2% is the Pr that you don't always reach level 24, overal 48.2% of events you win . 51.8% is the Pr that you reach 24 level and lose $982.

    That's worse Pr than EC + LP that has 48.65% Pr of Win.

    -$1.59 × (36/37)¹ is not the E.V for level 2.
    -$0.81 is the E.V. for level 2.

    You just clarified your bet series has a 48.2% Pr that it doesn't lose 24 levels. 51.8% means you're more likely to visit the later levels and still lose.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2022
  4. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Prove that 1+1≠2 .. but what that helps me when I need to sell 50+ apricots a day.
     
  5. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    The expectation of paying the LP-type of tax is 1/37 or 1/38 spins;
    so although the formula written is correct its SUPERSEDED,
    as the actual house edge paid on all other spins is -2.7% ..

    & there of the further you play .. the closer the actual paid average gets just short of -2.7;
    & the further you play the probability of LP constituting any advantage get closer to Zero, 0.


    Address that now, maturely, so that you don't collapse.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2022
  6. 6probability9

    6probability9 Member

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    Well you are completely wrong.
    -0.5×(1÷37) = E.V. for La Partage

    expected value for EC + LP is -.0135 not -.027. The house edge on La Partage is half of 2.7% the house edge on any other bets.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2022
  7. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    We dont give a rats ass about HE and L P.
     

  8. 6probability9

    6probability9 Member

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    So in your 30 years of gambling experience, you've concluded that the house edge is non-important or have you only heard of la partage in 2022?
     
  9. Keyser Soze

    Keyser Soze Active Member

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    But does it make you profits?
     
  10. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Let me tell you , wise guy , that 2 years ago I mentioned La paratge to Lung yeh.



    An Malaysian high roller intend to go for roulette E C.



    You are a NBOCODY i n my eyes . A wannabe
     
  11. 6probability9

    6probability9 Member

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    Profit Yes, Even Chances (+LP) is 1:1; Red or Black, 1-18 or 19-37, Even or Odd.
    the outside bets have the highest probability to make profit.
     
  12. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    You are a NOBOIDY. A Wannabe .
     
  13. 6probability9

    6probability9 Member

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    the ol' pot calling the kettle black.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2022
  14. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    My post to Lung Yeh is DOCUMENTED here on G F in one of his topics .




    TOUCH DOIWN ..
     

  15. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    YOU are finished here promoting nothing.
     
  16. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    What is left of you is a sting carcass of a math zombie .
     
  17. 6probability9

    6probability9 Member

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    Calm Down, Nathan and take your medication.

    I couldn't care less if gamblers here don't/ can't exploit la partage. I'm waiting for anyone credible to refute my position. The house invites life-long degenerates like you, that are ignorant to the house edge of their bets.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2022
  18. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    I have addressed everything. You just don't get it.

    You go around in circles repeating facts I already stated in my first post.

    Here is a different scenario:

    Given that anyone who has lived has a 100% chance of being born and let's say everyone has a 51.8% chance of living a full 24 years (to their 24th birthday to be precise) with a 1/37 chance of dying in any year.

    Q1. Does that mean it is impossible to die sooner than age 23?
    Q2. Do you believe the 48.2% who do die all live to age 23 but then all die before their 24th birthday?
    Q3. What is the average age of death in the above?

    You lay it all it out in a spreadsheet and post a table here so we can check your basic understanding and grasp of the math.

    We can wait, don't post anything until you do the exercise above.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2022
  19. 6probability9

    6probability9 Member

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    You keep trying to justify column 11 as the probability before the level. When you haven't addressed:
    column 10 × column 11 = column 14. At all.
    QUOTE the post you already addressed this.

    You multiply the Pr before a level with the cumulative E.V. on that level.

    Simply answer the question to your own calculations.


    In column 14 example bet level 24 you use: -$26.54 × (36/37)²³.

    -$26.54 is the sum E.V. of 24 levels = (36÷37)²⁴.
    total bet $982 × (-1/37) = total E.V. -$26.54

    how can you multiply 23 losses by the $26.54 sum of 24 losses?

    to get -$14.13 on the 24th "cumulative level E.V".
    You done this on bet level 2:
    $1.59 ×(36/37)¹ = -$1.55

    You multiply the Pr before a level with the cumulative E.V. on that level.

    You done this on bet level 24:

    $26.54 × (36/37)²³ = -$14.13

    The values in column 14 are wrong
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2022
  20. 6probability9

    6probability9 Member

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    "Given that anyone who has lived has a 100% chance of being born."

    Tf. You dont understand that you multiply the Pr of living each year. (36/37)¹ = living age 0-1. You use multiplication for the Pr of dying age 0-1 = (1/37)¹.

    (36/37) = 97.3% cannot = 100% that everybody is "born" in your experiment.
    (1/37) means the Pr of still born. dying age 0 and before age 1.

    there is no 100% Pr of being born alive in your experiment. Law of indices, any base⁰ = 1. 100% is the Pr that you haven't been born.
    (36/37)⁰ = (36/37)÷(36/37) = 1

    (1/37)⁰ = (1/37)÷(1/37) = 1

    You are multiplying indices with the same base in terms of living another year;
    (36/37) × (36/37) is the addition law of indices. ¹ + ¹
    To further support my originsl point;
    column 10 x column 11 = column 14
    Age 0-1 or bet level 1 Pr reach = (36/37)¹.

    Age 23-24 or bet level 24 Pr reach i= (36/37)²⁴ = 51.8%

    Your straw math is futile.
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2022

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