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Baccarat Bac Stats

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by eugene, Nov 19, 2018.

  1. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Sputnik, a few working examples if you have the time would be great!
     
  2. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Yes I have it somewhere. I'll look. McVince has it, too! They got it from Ellis and tweaked it.
     
  3. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I don't follow this that easy without seeing a sample shoe. How many actual bets before getting a 5 LIAR?
     
  4. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Jimske & Eugene

    I want to make some explanation before I post real samples.
    This is one example why Banker/Player results are worse than using the law of series.

    Let's assume you follow singles and strike with six in a row then the sequence ends with a series of two.
    Now let me show you the math and probability calculation about the expectation if you choose to play regression.

    12 singles and 2 series is 2.5 STDV
    Single versus Series

    12 singles and 2 series of three is 2.5 STDV
    Singles versus larger series.

    So if you bet against back to back results in this situation you have 98.5% probability or likelihood to catch at least one more series when you look at Singles versus Series and you have 98.5% probability or likelihood to catch at least one more series of three or higher when you look at Singles versus larger series.

    You have 1.5% probability or likely to get another six singles with no regression.
    Test two sequences to catch both and end up with WLWW LWLWW.

    So you have two different situations into one expectation, either you get one or two more series of three or higher or one or two series to hit within the next six attempts.

    Now if you would have six Bankers and one Player, then you would only be able to catch one or two Players for the next six trails.
    So there is a layer and different level of understanding using the law of series, maybe that is the reason why MC Vince did not succeed to find weighted count system.

    Cheers
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  5. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

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    I must have run through at least 70 shoes just to get an idea of how it performed from shoe to shoe. The average was around 4-5 bets per shoe. Most of them had small wins like 1-2 units flat betting however there was 1 shoe with 5 straight losses. In total the wins outweighed the losses by quite a few.

    Here is a random shoe I created on the sim and how it panned out.

    All I am looking for is a scenario where the 6 hands finish 4 vs 2 in favour of Bank which happens often enough. If I reach 3 players in the 6 hand sequence before a chance to bet, then obviously it's no bet as is shown in the example shoe.

    ScreenHunter 84.png

    ScreenHunter 85.png
     
  6. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    This is not complete weighted count system, but i want to show regression in action where both (Singles versus Series) & (Singles versus Larger Series) become true regarding the expectation.
    You bet against the sequence to become 2.5 STDV and you bet against the likelihood of 1.5% probability.

    For example, there has to a rule for how strong imbalance you can accept, if you get seven singles then you have the same likelihood within 7 attempts and not six and you reach 3.0 STDV.

    Today's random org file

    - - - First sample three series of three or higher and three series hit

    1
    1
    2
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    2
    1 L
    1 W
    1 W
    2
    1 L
    1 W
    2 L
    2
    2 W
    1
    1
    1 W
    1
    1

    - - - Second sample, three series of three and three series hit

    1
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    1
    2 L
    2 W
    2 W
    2
    2
    1
    1 W
    1 W
    1
    1
    1
    2
    2
    1 L
    2
    1
    2
    2
    1 L
    2
    2
    2 W

    I don't know if someone should quit after one win or continue, but this is just examples.
     
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2018
  7. bob

    bob Member

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    bermuda triangle
    thanks sputnik, eugene, jimske for an interesting discussion:)
     

  8. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    There is no doubt that - Weighted Count - works, but I did not make a complete solution, I only show results with experimental ideas.
    The combination 4+4+4 equals 12 then we have 3 missing events for regression, so I test four singles or more in a row to end with a series of two. Then betting for a series of three or two series in a row as part of the weighted correction winning once.

    I got pretty amazing results - W W L W L W W L W L W W W W W L L W

    - - - RANDOM ORG 2018-11-23

    1
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    2
    2 W

    - - -

    2
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    2
    2 W
    2

    - - -

    2
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    2
    1 L
    1 W

    - - - RANDOM ORG 2018-11-22

    2
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    2
    1 L
    1 W
    1

    - - -

    2
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    1
    1 W

    - - -

    1
    1
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    2
    1 L
    1 W

    - - -

    1
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    1
    2 L
    2 W
    2
    2
    2

    - - -

    2
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    2
    2 W

    - - - RANDOM ORG 2018-11-21

    2
    2
    1
    2
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    1
    1 W
    1

    - - -

    2
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    1
    1 W

    - - -

    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    2
    2 W

    - - -

    2
    2
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    1
    2
    2
    1 L
    2 L
    2 W

    Now, this - Weighted Count - should work with any combination using the law of series.
    Singles versus Series and Series versuls Singles
    Singles versus Larger Sereis
    Single singles versus Series of singles among a long list of combinations.
     
  9. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Now I get it. I'm a little slow on the uptake sometimes. Where did I read that unbalance occurred more than balance?
     
  10. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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  11. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Jimske

    I did just show that the expectation is either series of three or higher or three series no matter length
    If we assume you bet against 2.5 STDV window/wave

    Equal 12 versus 2 or you can group them into any combination like 4 versus 1 and 4 versus 1 and 4
    The expectation is to get a series of three or higher using the playing model Singles versus larger series.
    And the expectation is to get several series after each other using the playing model Singles versus Series.

    Is very simple, you bet against 12 versus 2 where your minimum expectation is 12 versus 3 or more (Regression)
    The difference is that we use the law of series and not B/P as they come.

    So the bet you ask about was to catch the third series to show.
    That example was just to illustrate regression like my other examples.
    I don't recommend any of them as real selections as Weighted Count is new territory for me.
    Implement some of Margny De Grilleaus work.

    Cheers
     
  12. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Let's take this to the next level using weighted count.
    This works with any kind of event and I like the idea of having two expectations using one and same sequence.

    This not only works with singles versus ... we can use several series of two versus larger series.
    To get two expectation betting series of four and singles we need for the series of two to chop after each other if we would allow singles between them we could only aim for a series of four.

    Here are the math and probability and the statistical values.
    The values are:

    Match values for Series of two versus larger series

    Series of two has the value of 1
    Series of three has the value of 0
    Series of four has the value of 1
    Series of five has the value of 2
    Series of six has the value of 3
    And so it continues...

    Statistical values of appearance

    Based upon the match values you can measure the strength and how common a window or wave of 2.5 STDV is.
    You get used to seeing random bits part of growing stronger and weaker depending on playing model.

    Match values for Series versus Singles.

    Series no matter length has the value of 1
    Singles has the value of 1

    Probability and expectation

    After a series of two chops with an unknown amount of series of three (that are neutral) our expectation is to get a series of four or higher and series of singles ( also singles follow each other with series between creating single series)

    For easy explanation 2.5 STDV window is 12 versus 2 and our minimum expectation is to get 12 versus 3 or more
    And not only with one event, but we also have a double expectation or two selections into the same sequence.

    Will post some samples later today from random org.

    Cheers
     
  13. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I change my mind and will not continue in public and will contact selected members for private discussion.
    Reaching winning concepts and will tackle that with some experience to get some feedback with substance.
    This forum doesn't give anything in return.

    Cheers
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  14. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

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    To be fair Sputnik, you are right! The thing is like I said, this work is your baby and no doubt you understand it like the back of your hand. Now don't take offence but I am sure there are others reading this and saying WTF? If I was new to gambling or didn't have my own ideas, I would at least be asking questions if I was interested. You posted a lot of good info and your effort and time is appreciated. Thanks.
     

  15. bob

    bob Member

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    thanks sputnik, im a newbie to bacc, and like eugene said, its hard for me to understand singles/series with my limited i.q, maybe after study the game for longer, it may dawn on me what your trying to show us. i feel asking questions is to waste your time at this point, good luck to you.

    bob
     
  16. bob

    bob Member

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    hi eugene you talked about using a divisor, would you please give us an example shoe, with simple bet selection and how the divisor plays out,
    at your leisure.
    thanks bob
     
  17. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Understandable.

    That's because you're smarter than everyone here - including me!
     

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