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Baccarat Baccarat - the best small business

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Lungyeh, Sep 13, 2020.

  1. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING THREAD. like Gizmo mentioned earlier in the thread , I ran into a book on the market called "trend following" by Michael Covel. it blew my mind and my view on winning was turned upside down.
    most successfull traders like Seykoya and those guys were trend followers. their were in the chase for huge price movements and then went in and maintained their position for long. you see their years of what type of return they are having and they all show returns of 80,120,200 %.
    sometime they have to wait , the bucking bronco is acting up, but soon or later it has to stop.
    most day traders are losing money and they never really get anything in return like those trend-followers do.
    it is very much the same way with lots of gamblers who like the "small wins per session" I think.
    Annie Duke (poker pro), mentioned in a interview that speaking to hundreds of players in a life time also says; most of players I see just love to be able to check the little box that says; win/ or lose.
    the real winners I know show many more losing sessions then winning ones, but the 3 or 4 winning ones way overcome the losing ones.
    the other way around is w/w/w/w/w/LOSE/wwwww but it does not add up.
    she makes the point that is for sure a different way to aproach the game but is much more a doorway to huge wins, if you think about it.
    someone I read in this forum mentions also that he was at one time chasing the big runs but the headshake's that comes with it are so hard, who can endle it ?
    I agree that it is difficult to wait for 8 wins in a row , and yet ,funny enough, in a 8 hour session you are always see at least one if not 2.
    i always wonder why players dont partner more to carry such load and as a project or venture business really work together?
    think about the advantage ? self control, coaching,mentoring, motivation will always be present, but we are lone wolves most of the time as players.
    two players could easily give eachother the "baton" after a few hours of work and the other taking over could make the home run.
    just my 2 cents on the subject of winning. trend following is my thing, and as old as it is, it still works.
    you are only following price movement in order to get in, and that little bit of information is really all that is "real"
    Jesse Livermore was losing his 10% bank and he,as well was a trend follower.
    it is a "practice" that pays more then knowledge. too much infos can be a terrible thing when it comes to gambling I think.
    is it possible that "following trends" is really the only way to have a true edge ?
    God bless
    Rinad
     
  2. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    It would be irresponsible for me to not comment on this lest the strategy be misconstrued:-

    1 when I talk about betting on trends, I am talking about the short to shorter trends or anti trends. Sure, once awhile we can get 14 or 20 bankers but often times you do not.

    2 it does not presuppose that the trends will continue ad infinitum. Yes you may have clusters of 3,4-6 and thats where you make a fair bit of money.

    3 The progressive betting progression suggested of 2,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,4,4...... is when you are winning and it tops up at 4x HPB. If you are winning. Or lost the last bet.

    4 There is a suggested target win of 70-100% of session bankroll caveat that if you are still winning, do continue until you lose the bet. When you lose this last bet after a string of wins, you can stop or continue playing. If you choose to continue and you lose back 30% of your winnings, stop. Part of the MM.

    5 My suggestion is that if you choose to adopt this strategy, adopt it wholesale only with changes to the parameters as you deem fit. Like its often said, there are many ways to skin the cat. Let us draw an analogy of football.

    A manager like Pep Guardiola wants players who can play tiki-taka type of football of intricate passing. Jose Mourinho has argued convincingly before that there are other ways to play football and he likes the counter attacking game. Jurgen Klopp with his high pressing. Each of the managers have a certain kind of player to fit the mould. Whichever the manager, the game plan is different. To each its own. Same for baccarat.

    6 Baccarat cannot be about a huge trend that allows you to break the casino. It will never happen. Lets be logical about it. You hear of the mega profits on Wall Street. The Big Short for one where multiple millions were made on the crash caused by the housing bubble. Or earlier on the dotcom bubble burst. But they wait years for such an opportunity.

    I do not believe this can be similarly experienced in a casino setting. You would have to wait forever and burnt all your capital waiting and trying.

    7 Let me then story you on this. A friend’s uncle borrowed 20,000 from a loan shark and went to the local casino. He stayed for a week and won 1,000,000. Went home, spent some money on the family and repaid the loan shark 40,000. Left with@800,000 he went to the casino again and came back with 4,000,000. Over the next 1 month, he won 20,000,000.

    What would we do in his position?

    He felt like God. Nothing can go wrong. Like the Tower of Bable, within 1 month, he lost back all the money at the same casino.

    The tragedy of it all. And then he took his own life.
     
    Margatec likes this.
  3. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    I totally anderstand that style that i mentioned is not what many players are looking for . attacking smaller trends can also paid for your way to bigger trends so I am sorry if it looked as if i was mudding the water, that was not my intention, I just wanted to share a different way to look at investing in a game or business. I always thought of the idea that baccarat or roulette could be taken the same way a player plays a tournement.
    that was my intention ,sacrificing lots of smaller wins for a bigger paid off.
    doing what 90% of what people do and you get what 90% of what people get.
    what dont we hear more success stories from people playing a 50/50 game is amazing to me. and I said that not out of a pridefull spirit believe me, and I am right there with the herd, but what in the world makes such simple game as fliping a coin so hard to beat ?
    please lets hear opinions on this. what strange power is at work that makes so many smart players such a difficult task to perform ?
    maybe if we know the number one reason for that we could find out what is our real and true enemy ?
    just a thought.....
    Rinad
     
  4. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Have you read the whole thread Rinad? You could relate your soul searching questions to some of the articles posted.

    Where I have rehashed some points in the past, I was accused of being a copy and paster. Lmfao.

    But anyway, please do. Its only 15 pages. Hahaha
     
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  5. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    I hope this thread doesn't stop getting interest as I think it has a lot of great nuggets of wisdom and experience.
    so I have read the entire thread .Lungyeh so we are talking about running a baccarat small business here. I am a entrepreneur and have been for 30 years . I ran a bakery, had a retail store and sold wholesale to coffee shops,ect.... so if we were to align those two businesses can we apply the exact same principals ?
    1/ overhead including cost of good, fixable.
    2/ product to be sold including process to make it.
    3/ projected time frame to be at "brake even point" /and "profit estimate"
    I dont want to make things more complex then they have to be so I will stop here, but for the sake of "anderstanding" what it would take to run a baccarat business where would one had to start to begin ?
    Baccarat or any game of chance may sound simple on the surface but its simplicity is also a type of "unseen" double edge sword that can fool a lot player I think, am I right ?
    in business you "see,touch,feel" , you have a pretty good idea of cost, labor it takes." in baccarat however it is more muddy if I can said.
    so maybe we should transfer gambling terms like "betting" into "sales" ,where you only get to profit from your "bets"(products made) once you sale them (winning bets/customers purchased).
    so should everything be documented from the get-go including a business plan ?
    maybe as we filter the muddy water of gaming we can "see" really what path is to be taken.
    a 50/70 % profit target was introduce early , should that target be a "off the top" target or a "long term target" only aimed once we get miles on our tires and experience ?
    I like to hear more on everything you have learned in order to get a clear picture and I have learned allready a lot from your thread and other members here.
    God bless

    Rinad
     
  6. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Hi Rinad. Thank you for your interest. I will reply to your points soon. A bit busy right now. Stay blessed
     
  7. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Upfront, we have to know its a wide audience on this forum; from the mathematically inclined to the intuition player, from paper only gamblers to stadium players to the B&M players, from part-timers to full timers from the theory guys to the practical guys. From people who have been in business and understands what being an entrepreneur entails to those who have never been in business and thinks its a walk in the park.

    Baccarat is being compared to a business on this thread borne out of my sincere beliefs based on the analogies drawn.

    Not many examples are direct comparisons; especially amongst different businesses. Suffice to say, the over riding truth is that a business is for making profits. And if one makes a profit out of his passion, so much the better. For eg you probably started your bakery because you love to make bread/cakes or you simply love to eat! And its making profits out of your passion. Lovely.

    Maybe not so much in a bakery setting, but in other businesses like investment holding or trading or futures trading, KNOWLEDGE and DISCIPLINE coupled with ASTUTE RISK MANAGEMENT is an every MINUTE affair. In baccarat, its an every BET affair.

    In business, subconsciously, one has to be at PEACE in making decisions frequently. How much you want to make on a sale. How much credit you want to allow that customer. Is he a regular or a new customer. How much inventory should you prepare since its a long public holiday weekend. Business is getting slow, should you let go of your long time employee. You have some cash reserve, should you buy up the property or should you continue to rent. Should you go online to sell your products. Et cetera et cetera.

    I believe making it in baccarat is the same as making it in business. There are many factors involved to be successful. I also believe the successful entrepreneur is a special breed; taking the appropriate risks, being able to cope with uncertainties and able to co-relate and manage disparate parts at various levels of risks and certainties and somehow bring them all together in successful cohesion.

    If after sometime, one cannot succeed in baccarat, one can plough on as in some entrepreneurs like Colonel Sanders being successful in his KFC when he was like in his 60s. Or one can give up and do other things; be an employee or start another business.

    There is no shame in not making it in baccarat. A fish should not be judged by how fast it can climb a tree.

    But key to this issue bro is that not many people have been in business and they dont know what it entails. When one sees a successful entrepreneur they assume all kinds of things except the hard work required.

    I believe ‘time and chance’ plays a part in one’s success in life as it would in baccarat. It may come and go and one can strike it and yet squander it away. Like in the Hot Phase and the Shar Chi Phase.

    Yet, besides the time and chance, one needs peace to deal with the situations. Believe me, the hard work for baccarat is in the loss management. Like someone said here (I think ND said it), the wins will take care of themselves. Its how you deal with the losses that allow you to walk out the casino a winner.

    The only point really is that if one wants to make it in baccarat, one has to treat it as a business with all its attendant pre-requisites. If one goes in a casino to let the devil roam and just enjoy himself, there are cheaper forms of entertainment.

    In its simplicity, the game will kill you by a thousand cuts. With salt added to the wounds slowly and surely.

    But yes Rinad, indeed its the best small business in the world. Note that many other factors were already discussed previously.
     

  8. Rustyshackleford

    Rustyshackleford Active Member

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    Great post, i read every word, no i am not going to go on and on about my system and my secret sauce (but i can) all your fancy talk is nice and all but it all boils down to are you winning or losing? edge or no edge? can you give me luck? will i leave and go home a loser? will i ever win back my money from last week? week before that? you mention wins you mention loses but you don't mention how to capitlize on the unknown-five minutes into the future, you see after you finish a shoe they shuffle it, how its being shuffled only the agent of the universe knows (if there is one) and seeing a banker or a player on the very first hand can not give us didly squat info on the next hand. no you need to catalog more info more hands to forecast the future. so how bout it? what is your secret sauce?
     
  9. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Do you know the singer Terry Jacks who sang the classic song ‘Seasons in the sun’?

    Listen also to “If you go away”’. My message to you is in the song; in the title actually.
     
  10. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    words of wisdom my friend, yes in deed very well said. the enemy we face I think in a game like baccarat or any other is the Myth that is deeply known by 99% of people, and that it is impossible to really beat the game, unlike in a business where everyone knows it is hard, but still know some make it work everyday. I wonder if that "belief" is a much bigger enemy that we really think it is ?
    as you watch the attitude of a dealer, the look in their eyes ,they pick up your chips and at times you could almost hear them thinking " well,how do you think these casinos were buildt with" , the reinforcement and confidence they, as well as pitt bosses show you is that "you may take a few bucks from us today, but we got you", is there to make us doubt that it is a "real business for us".
    the preparation for such business must be at a mental level for sure besides the strategy.
    Regards,
    Rinad
     
  11. oopsididitagain

    oopsididitagain Active Member

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    The casino's take everyone's money, let alone only the one's who try to bring philosophy into Terry Jacks. How corny can it get. Lol.
     
  12. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    LOL

     
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  13. Rustyshackleford

    Rustyshackleford Active Member

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    so when i call you out your reply is to me is to go away?
    words of a true winner... NOT!
     
  14. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    You have been peddling your secret sauce on another thread and nobody seemed interested and with all your hard and soft sell, no sauce has poured out of your sachet. Please publish it and be done with it. And please dont do it here.

    As for the oops guy, I really wonder why you waste your time on the baccarat forums when you have already made up your mind the casino takes everybody’s money. To get your daily 2 second orgasm?

    Well, I suppose the site caters for a whole spectrum of people; from secret sauce peddler to 2 second its over orgasmic oldies to freebies punk in the baccarat stadiums.

    If free, just catch up on the US presidential elections ya. Peace to people of goodwill.
     

  15. Rustyshackleford

    Rustyshackleford Active Member

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    who told you about my post? and again you can thank froto bagos over there for telling me not to do it claiming i will ruin the game of baccarat or ruin my system either way his post was number 4 but it came with a price of not posting! he advised me not to do it, and yes i can go on and on about the secret sauce and its yummy in my tummy, the system obsorbs 1 unit loses and capitalizes on wins with +3 units oh it destroys any bac game known to man kind, see what you did got me talking bout me system! the system never fails never dips into bankroll #5 never has it felt defeat, it wins and then wins some more oh the system!!!

    but all you got is fancy talk and no real way of attacking the baccarat shoe, just talk about business how on gods green earth does that help me in a random shuffled shoe? the shoe played 5minutes ago gets shuffled and we have no clue if banker will be numerou uno or if player will be top dog
    until its finished
    you sir make me sick!
     
  16. stephen

    stephen Active Member

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    The best small business is doomed for failure since unicorn is not real but house edge is. This small business is based on the big business casino gambling which is gasping for breadth in all parts of the world due to covid 19.
     
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  17. Rustyshackleford

    Rustyshackleford Active Member

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    • Violation of Rule #7: No Off-topic Posting
    Stephen, would you like to know my secret sauce? my system? the very same i use to destroy bac tables known to gamblers kind?
     
  18. Rustyshackleford

    Rustyshackleford Active Member

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    • Violation of Rule #2: No Disruptive Behavior
    you can't stop my secret sauce my system!violation my @zz!
     
  19. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Say something nice brother.
     
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  20. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    If we can say the same thing to the casino that I will respect the Baccarat rules ‘IF I WIN!’
     

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