Baccarat Baccarat - the best small business

Jimske,

My point is that I really find it hard to accept that gamers would even bother to bet in a totally random game.

So if one finds a situational pattern or bias, at least he is more inclined to bet on his PBB (personal bet bias) be it he is a trend or anti-trend player. Whether he wins or lose depends on whether he is in his Hot Phase, Killing Phase or Neutral Phase. But at least he has a control feel about it; real or imagined.

 

Lunch,

Sir , a session may be played any time day or night for that reason I like to refer to my post # 323 on page 19 .


Cheers .

 

Noted ND and appreciated

 

Started going through every post. Very interesting stories and concepts. The way you do Baccarat is like a pianist interpreting a classical work. The important question is by HOPING that the phases that you are saying sustain or do an about turn around of something noticeable the real problem in my opinion is the TRANSITION phase which you did not address. People lost their way in the transition phase because it's catch 22.
Better way to describe is like trying to draw a straight line without a ruler OR trying to write with just holding the tip of a pen.

 

Kind of odd analogies. Nevertheless, I guess a "hot" phase is when you have won more than lost in the last smallish group of decisions and the "cold" phase is just the opposite. So if you are in a hot phase you either get out with a profit after a small attempt to exploit it fails or stay in "hoping" things will improve even if things are a bit cooler. Of course in a cold phase you either leave with a small loss or back off hoping to reduce losses and escalation. Of course you can pump it hoping it will turn around knowing you got enough bankroll and a good phase is always due.

Success requires 1) a plan, 2) decent bet selection, 3) good money management and 4) excellent discipline. And all of this takes practice and experience. A few years back I kept track of all bets placed for about 3000 bets and documented a strike rate of around 53%. I don't keep track of that anymore. Mainly because I've only lost a few shoes in the last, I don't know, like maybe 75 or 100 shoes. I lost one today out of 5 (lost $7.00 after commission). With the above criteria anyone can win.

So if one considers the hot and cold phases as I have laid them out it should be apparent how to win.

J

 

Thanks for clearing up. I thought the phases are meant to describe the flow of the shoe where the patterns were in line with your predictions or not. A lot of times no matter what you do the outcomes goes the other way and that's the Sar Chi phase. I thought one needs to play in a different mode where you should be aggressive or conservative accordingly. So which is it? recognising flow of shoes or like what you said which is what to do after outcome number of win/loss

 

Page 6 , Right on Top the Preamble that that the topic is Money Management. Nothing else.


Very clearly stated . That should have left no doubt in any ones mind .




Cheers.

 

I read something like this before. The explanation is if the House has a discipline of requiring a minimum bet and the limitations of a maximum bet, why we as players also employ a minimum and maximum bet of our own? 1-5 is a good spread. Flat bet for an hour win or lose to see how the day goes and to get warmed up. After that like what LungYeh says varied your bets subtly.

 

L- Y steered clear away from a bet selection but while at the table will exploit any given trend to his advantage.


Cheers.

 

The hypothesis behind is to ‘Dare to win and scared to lose’ which, from one sense, may be the antithesis to negative Martingale.

Whatever one’s bet selection, if one continues to win, there are suggested bet progressions ie a mild positive Martingale, if you like. You would do no worse than to maintain the HPB instead of shrinking it after the 3rd win.

On the other hand, there are suggested bet reductions to take place.

Well anyway Craps, it is interesting to see the various approaches to a common aim of making money from baccarat. Like I said there are many approaches to team strategies for football and for each team to win with their strategies they need certain kinds of players. So for each baccarat strategy be it negative Martingale or Lungyeh, the personality behind is important. And in Baccarat as it is in football and in life, no matter how good you are, you do lose sometimes.

Remember to get up and have a chance to continue, the losses must NOT be devastating. And the premise of Scared to Lose being directly opposite to negative Martingale.

Peace.

 

As to transition phase, if one loses, there are suggested reduced bet strategies. And to stop when losses are 3 out of the last 4 bets.

If one wins, they can continue with their UB or HPB and check the results. If nothing untoward happens, they can resume. If they lose, see last paragraph.

 

I don't know the efficacy of a Pos or Neg Martingale but dare to win and scared to lose are real things. They can be used to ones advantage. Know your comfort level. Avoid temptation (greed).

 

The story begins. Its meant to tell forum members that everything is possible in baccarat. Read and digest at your own risks. Please always note the fact that success rate in baccarat is extremely small but I dont believe it is any worse than starting a business and making it successful over many years.


The story is about Mr X, a Malaysian who occasionally gambles throughout the world. From Caesars Palace, Sands, Wynn, MGM in the US to Ritz and Genting in the UK to Crown Melbourne and Perth, Australia, Solaire in Manila, Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands in Singapore to casinos littered throughout Asia in his @18 years of indulgence in Baccarat. Some of them have closed since the pandemic started.


Sometime in late 2017/ early 2018, X flew into Singapore for a meeting. It was supposed to be in for afternoon meeting, then dinner meeting and out after lunch the following day. And before that, breakfast with his daughter who is working in Singapore. In Singapore one is spoilt for choice of good restaurants; there are many Michelin rated restaurants, Michelin rated streetfood even! Robouchon in Sentosa and Waku Ghin omakase Japanese restaurant in Marina Bay Sands (MBS) remain amongst his favourites. This trip he is staying at MBS as it is nearer his meeting place in the business district.


X finished his afternoon meeting routinely. MBS had sent a Merc S class to pick him up from the airport to MBS for room check in first. This trip they gave him a junior garden facing suite. X is a MBS Paiza Diamond (PD) member and is entitled to many freebies. Limousines and free room nights subject to variation from month to month. In MBS, above the PD is the Chairman’s Card which is exclusively for invited truly high rollers.


He chose to meet his banker friend at Waku Ghin which is a Japanese Omakase Michelin rated restaurant. Omakase works like this. When you arrive at the restaurant, the Captain will ask you what you dont eat or dont prefer. After noting that, the chef will prepare the food according to what the chef wants. Menu is given after dinner is finished! You eat what you are served. The casino picked up the bill. The meal itself is S$500 per pax plus drinks the bill came up to slightly below S$2k.


Dinner started at @6.30pm and finished @10.30pm. As X headed for his room and at the door, his daughter called. ‘Dad we meeting for breakfast at Club 57 tomorrow right? Can we do it at 7am so that I won’t be late for work? And dad, can I have like S$5k? I need to pay a deposit for my course?’ I said ok to all and said my goodnight. Club 57 as the name implies is on the 57th floor and provides a sweeping eye-view of the Singapore harbour and city landscape as well on the other side. Breakfast and high tea is complimentary for PD plus 2 guests.


As he prepared for bed, he felt a calling from the casino. As a PD, he need not have to check in at the casino each and every trip. His total business and his bet through (ie rolling) so far has been huge and will qualify him as PD for at least a few years.


He counted the cash in his wallet. He had not transferred any casino deposit money as he is supposed to be busy and flying off tomorrow. He had @S$5,600 plus some other foreign currencies. He took out S$400 and put the balance in the room safe as he had promised to give S$5k to his daughter. No credit cards in the casino. Thats another inviolable rule.

 

X headed for the casino connected to the hotel building by an enclosed overhead pathway for Paiza members. Across the road from the hotel buildings, the casino gaming hall is 3 storey high. The main hall is on the ground floor, one gaming hall for non Paiza VIP members and another 2 smaller gaming halls for Paiza members. Then they also have many private rooms scattered all over. Total luxury. Any food you want. Any drinks, 15 yr old Macallan. Glenfiddich. Red wine. White. And free for PD members.

Slightly embarrassed that he only brought along S$400, he had planned to make 2 bets and leave if he lost. Just taking in the vibrancy and camaraderie of the crowd. Like Mike Tyson said, ‘Everyone has a plan until they are punched in the face’. See how it goes. X had planned that if he lost the S$400, he will just drink some whiskey and go back to sleep.

At the main hall, most tables are minimum $50 but there are 2-3 with minimum bet of $10. There is a stadium type play area with live dealers for baccarat, roulette and a few other games. Possibly @50 stations. Minimum bet varies from $10-30 depending on the table. I think maybe 5-6 baccarat tables on the screen. The stations are mostly empty. Singapore is one of the richest country in the world with GDP per capita of US$65,000 which is higher than the US. So the stadium sections, if occupied, are mostly by foreign labourers working in Singapore hoping to make some money or some players who have lost most of their capital and are playing small to hope to recoup and end up losing everything. Most Asians prefer the traditional baccarat table game.

Tonight was really crowded at the Main Hall so X went to the lower limit VIP room. Most of the tables there had minimum bets of $300 and the only ones with $200 min bet (which would allow him 2 bets) were 3 tables they call Fab 4 tables. Its no commission play. If Player wins on 4 they only pay half your bet on Player. If Banker wins on 4, its called a Push on your Banker bet and there is no win or lose. You dont get paid!

If you make a side bet for Player win at 4 and Player actually wins at 4, you are paid 50x the amount of your side bet. Bet $10 and win $500. Side bet amounts are smaller and starts at $10.

If you make a side bet for Banker win at 4 and Banker actually wins at 4, you are paid 25x the amount of your side bet.

 

The story unfolds...
And so the night begins. X was having such a good run of fortune, he forgot his tiredness. He started at around midnight and by the time he had to go and see his daughter for breakfast, his bankroll was already up @$300,000!!! Sometimes, you just dont want to leave. There is a joke that even if one calls a baccarat player to tell him his house is on fire, he will not leave immediately once he establishes that nobody is injured or trapped but will probably arrive after the fire engine. He will rationalise that there is nothing he can do to save his insured house!!

But X went for the breakfast meeting and gave his daughter S$10k instead. So no matter, that’s already the win for the trip. He had deposited the casino chips at the Cashier Counter before that and received a printed acknowledgment.

Returning to the tables after a quick shower, X went to the same Fab 4 tables to continue where he let off.

He skipped lunch and as bankroll continued to grow (it is now at @$400k, the crowd and the noise level grew. Got money got honey. No money no honey. A lot of mainland China ladies around and they tried to make small talk with X but X doesn’t speak Mandarin so it was like chicken and duck talking. Then one really pretty lady spoke to him in halting but moderately good conversational English. She told X “Next time you make profit call me. I come and take you home.” X nodded and then told her “Its ok, I stay in the hotel”. Then she said, “Then you take me home”. And flashed a charming CFM smile at him. CFM stands for Come Fock Me. Hahaha.

Such distractions. Porcelain smooth fair skin. Tall and well endowed, perky bottom. Looks like the HK actress Rosamund Kwan. Will post photo of Rosamund.

Nothing happened. Although she subsequent sat next to X. Money and honey do not mix well. One at a time.

The game continued with the usual Hot Phase, Neutral Phase and Shar Chi Phase. As the bank roll rolled past S$500,000 there was a shoe where X betted S$1k on the Player wins on 4 bet and Banker wins on 4 bet. In that particular shoe, he won Player/4 two times (S$50,000! each time) and Banker/4 one time ($25,000).

In between there were smaller bets. For this trip, in total, X spent @23 hours playing time and ended up with a total deposit of S$900,000! He signed the paper work to take back S$400,000 and left S$500,000 in MBS for his next trip.

 

The love of my life...

 

Just to be clear, X repeated his triumph again a few months later. This time winning S$800,000 from S$800. These 2 events were historic and there were many witnesses who have since become casino friends of X.

One can win maybe 5k or 10k from a small bankroll in a trip. But to build it to $900,000 from $400 is quite unprecedented.

Most would be unable to do it. Why? Because as the bankroll grows, one who is accustomed to betting at say, 1k-5k per hand would be stressed to bet 50k or 100k or even 20k as the bankroll increased so as to win more. So normally, there is an invisible cap or ceiling on possible winnings.

Going by this possible win, there are always possibilities of wealth transfers from casino to gamers. Possibilities of capital accumulation. Without wanting to encourage fellow forum members to march to their “death” in the casinos, please understand that winners are a rarity in Baccarat but it is not impossible.

The way the game was played for this trip by X is not to be emulated for long term sustainability of winnings. X has since settled to more or less the strategies promulgated by Lungyeh. In any case, X has many businesses and investments and do not play baccarat for a living.

 

Flight cancelled. Room extended ...oh what a night ....as the song goes

 

Wow, very impressive. Great to hear you redeemed yourself from all those previous losses, X! Can't wait to hear more about how you did it!

Cheers.