Baccarat Baccarat - the best small business

Do you really believe for a minute that Christopher Mitchell with only 2 years experience playing Baccarat, and who uses a martingale, is a world class player? Not even close.

 

Some people learn fast or are just born to be suited to the game. ‍♂️ Lionel Messi is just born to be a world class footballer. Michael Jordan for basketball. Djokovic for tennis, his tantrums at the recent US Open notwithstanding. I will google up Christopher.

There are many good players who operates as a team to ‘hit’ the casinos irregularly. So at least 2-4 of them. Whatever the bet selection is agreed and if the shoe is not performing to their preferences they are able to control each other to minimise the Shar Chi Phase losses. They are lower profiled and wont be seen in the main hall.

 

I had an interesting discussion with several gamers recently as to an approach which has won one practitioner S$1mil per year for 2 years running now.


This guys spends 4-5 hours a day in the casino walking around looking for a noisy busy table. Baccarat tables are normally busy in Asian based casinos due to the popularity of the game. He finds a table and watches for a lead customer on a roll ie making unfathomable winning hands. He merely follows with a S$1k bet and once awhile S$2k. He wins 3-4 bets and leaves making S$3-4k per day. No fuss no stress. No system.

One could also find a losing customer who loses no matter what he bets. We just bet opposite to his bets. I am not a proponent of this schadenfreude approach and I find no joy in this practice and do not recommend.

But following the winning bets of a customer on a roll sounds good and less stressful.

Some thoughts ...

 

Yes you are correct in stating that they are low profile. The best players in the world are low profile. They are quiet. They don’t share their wins on public forums. They play in different casinos all the time in order not to get barred. You won’t hear them bragging to other players. They have figured out how to beat the game and realize that it’s not in their best interest to share their strategy with ANYONE! You must realize that you can make millions by just quietly playing solo. Money earned from teaching is peanuts compared to the money made playing in a casino. CM makes money from his YouTube videos. I agree he is interesting to listen to but he hasn’t a clue about bet selection which is the key to winning. The mere fact that he keeps trying to flat bet and always winds up reverting to the martingale is clear evidence his bet selection sucks. Professional players either flat bet or use a mild positive (not negative) progression.
Moreover, CM has only 2 years of playing time in a casino and that’s not enough time to understand the flow of cards in Baccarat. It takes several years.

 

L-y,


Thanks for a detailed and well stated reply. Considering the business venture as implied there might be some good MM options to look forward to.



Nathan Detroit

 

I digress. I have talked about treating baccarat as a business.

As in business as in baccarat, you make money when revenues are more than expenses. So, we have to maximise revenues and minimise expenses to come out on top.

The crux of the Lung Yeh strategy and a vital component of MM is espoused here:-

1) SCARED TO LOSE
2) DARE TO WIN

DARE TO WIN bring the revenues. SCARED TO LOSE controls the expenses.

The normal state of play is to DARE TO LOSE (betting bigger and bigger stakes thinking the patterns and trends are strong when on a losing streak in the Shar Chi Phase) and

The other state of play is to be SCARED TO WIN (reducing bet sizes as one wins thinking that they want to preserve their winnings only for their limited winnings to be wiped out by their DARE TO LOSE streak

I will indicate the bet sizes for different situations in later postings on MM. Please remember to adjust as you deem fit. But the overall strategy above should be your guiding principles.

Garfield has indicated some psychological issues in following this. All I can say is that you have to try. Its crucial and there are no 2-ways about it.

An analogy on DARE TO WIN. The pandemic is boosting the business volumes of Amazon and other online companies like no tomorrow. Jeff Bezos is capitalising on it and investing and doing all he can to capture the volumes. He DAREs TO WIN. Maybe another person may think, ‘No, no we should slow down our expansion. This wont last forever. We are comfortable with our present volume. Lets just do what we can and forget about the crazy demand growth. It wont last’

So here you have an analogy for your digestion.

 

I make a big deal about what to do if you start on a trend and it hits a loss. It could hit on your first try of the trend. It could hit on the second step of betting with the trend or pattern. You will have a swarm of first attempt starts that lose in several connected attempts to start betting trends. I always treat all losses as the end of the trend unless it is a strong streak of singles on the weak side. You can only get killed off one trend at a time and only if there are swarms of first try losses. If you win a first bet and lose the second then you are even. If you quit the trend after the first try win then you are ahead by one net win. So all this amounts to strategic money management. I call it session management.

 

I might give it another chance if based on my sight (like in derived roads) the trend might continue...

Ofc some will say derived roads is misleading, but it's a 50/50 anyways for that particular short of time...

Like what I just experienced...losing to 3 streaks of banker, then ride on the next 9....

Maybe I'm just lucky...

 

You just described what the stock trader said was the reason why new stock market traders tend to trade on fear. He said that they would stay too long on a stock hoping that it would turn around before descending even farther. That was a form of fear. He also said that new stock market traders would pull out of a rising stock out of fear of it ending and missing the high point.

This and his suggestion of a stop sell on a specific low point and a stop sell on a specific rise point took the fear out of the tactic. If you look at moving averages for coin flip type waves in the results during say 100 spins you will see that there is common range of movement inside smaller upswings and downswings. I can illistrate this with a graph of all bets placed at the same value on the same decision:

 

Last nite I had an interesting discussion with my wife.... It's all about how people in my country prefer to be scared... that's why horror movie is more popular here than the comedy ones.... LoL

 

Grab the reality of this game and stop all the whining and moaning and just listen what L-y has to offer in his posts .

hat1s the reason he showed up. He was looking for some feedback to his methods .


The least he is interested in is your play and your options and comparisons .



ND

 

The topic is money management to be discussed later, peace of mind while playing, and fear leading to bad MM. I don't care if it takes 100 pages. I'm hoping to find something that I have never considered before.

 

I used Dr Steven Peters book The Chimp Paradox to relate to why a lot of people lose control in baccarat. Why peace is often disrupted. The good doctor did not use his findings to relate to Baccarat. I just think it does.

In summary, the human brain can be simplified to contain 3 parts that determine your personality as a human being:-
1) The Human
2) The Chimp
3) The Computer a) Autopilots
b) Gremlins
c) Goblins
d) Stone of Life

The Human part of the brain acts logically before reacting. It considers all the facts and is not emotional.

The Chimp acts on emotions and reacts without logical thinking. When you lose your temper and acts aggressively, that’s your Chimp.

When you were born, you were given the Chimp. You have to live with your Chimp and you are responsible for its behaviour and all its actions.

The Chimp is 5 times stronger than the Human (same as in real life, the Chimp will overpower the Human) and is faster. There is no way a Human can overcome the Chimp. You can only manage it. Information travels to the Chimp first before it reaches the Human.

The Computer stores and retrieves information inputted into it by both the Chimp and the Human based on their own interpretation. The Computer comprises of the Autopilots, the Gremlins, the Goblins and the Stone of Life. The Computer serves 2 functions. It stores information as well as serve as a reference source to influence the behaviour of the Chimp and the Human.

The Autopilots are the good beliefs and behaviours. The Gremlins are the bad beliefs and bad behaviours. If the Chimp acts with the Gremlins, you are in trouble.

For our purpose, we will not touch on the Goblins and the Stone of Life.

Heavy? Ok.... to be continued. Maybe tomorrow. I m watching Netflix. Blacklist. Fantastic show.

 

I'm waiting for Johno to jump in and correctly say MM is all about a staking plan. One that allows for safely recouping losses and has a strategy for exploiting wins without jeopardizing profit.

Add the self control and discipline to recognize when to take a break and come back with a fresh mind and you have a winning method.

Yes, it's a business. As such you become an accountant or chief financial officer. As such you write EVERYTHING* down; you recognize and admit mistakes so as repeating them becomes less common.

*personally that's a signal for me. When my record keeping or my scorecard becomes too sloppy it's a signal for me to stop. Mechanisms.

 

Looking forward to L- y topic to be continued..............

 

I said again and I'll say it before, if a cat got a style what ain't objective, mechanical and replicable by any or most any old cat then he ain't got a real winning style. A real winning style don't rely on hits and run or any absurd, counter productive stop win/stop loss nonsenses, hey hey.

 

Just because you can't use up and down waves in the progress of a gambling session does not mean that others can't. You don't own the minds of all gamblers. This is not your command post. You are playing a pretend facade of knowing what works. And you do it to attempt to impress the gullible. Go away. This discussion is for adults.

 

You don't even buck up against the baccarats but you feel the need to intrude on every freakin thread to spout of yer nonsenses and bullshits. What is it with you old codgers and yer non-stop need for attentions, hey hey!

 

Before I continue with the Chimp, I would like to explain myself and the objective of this thread.

I am here to state my case that Baccarat, in my opinion, is the best small business in the world. And have given my reasons why. Yes there are speculative elements involved; much as in the stock market and futures market as there are in all types of businesses. Nothing much different.

I hasten to add that while I believe that all credible casinos do not cheat or somehow stack odds against you above and beyond what is stated, there are invisible hands at work in the stock and futures market. Let me give you my personal experience.

@30 years ago, still in my early years, I made some money and decided to dabble in the commodities (futures) market. I did the paper trading, made paper gains and think I have it in me to make a living out of it. I was monitoring a few markets and then the lumber market caught my interest. The market was going up and up and I monitored it. It went past its historical high and I shorted it (as I remembered it, I sold 3 lots) expecting it to come down. News were negative for it. But the prices continued to climb. So I doubled my short position. Total 6 lots. In between of course there were price swings. Over a period of a few days, lumber continued to climb and I had to scramble for money for margin calls. It was a totally illiquid market. Finally, I gave up and closed my position meaning, I bought back the 6 lots. They didnt even wait. As soon as I bought to close off my position, the prices came crashing down! If I had held on one more day, I would have made it all back. Or would I be squeezed further? There are unseen hands in the futures market especially the smaller illiquid ones. The physical guys probably noted there cannot be a real seller from Malaysia. And squeezed me out. I lost > US$250,000 then. It nearly sank me and I had to take another few yeara to rebuild my capital. And stayed away and learned my lesson.

There are no such things in the casino. It is beyond me to think that where the casinos need to be licensed that they will risk a collaboration between the machine shuffling guys, the dealers, the supervisors, the admin guys et al to cheat on a customer. An Indian guy I met got worked up when he argued that the shuffling machine has a mechanism that pushes out the correct card for the casino to win. Another Chinese guy who always bet on Banker in the glorified amount of 10-20 per bet told me he is sure the casino marks him when he checks in. I couldn’t help laughing and he was pissed as he argued that it can be big money for the casino because even if he bets 10-20, the rest of the table may follow him. Takes all kinds.

And Soxfan with his cat; there is a saying, there are many ways to skin a cat. As there are many ways to get to Vegas. I had given an example of a no stress, no bet selection methodologies approach. Go into a casino watch the guy on a winning run and follow his bets. Make 1-2x then move around again and repeat. Total make 3-4x and then leave. Dont overstay because the guy’s hot phase may be over anytime and slip into his Shar Chi Phase. Actually, I think this is the best approach to the game.

Soxfan, I believe, is in the grinding approach and is making good money with his method. If you find someone like him or if he is kind enough to let you know where and when he plays, you can follow the bets; no need to sweat and swear and just make your money.

Otherwise, for the rest who wants to read on, these are my reasons. Anybody who has been in business has to be really good at what they are doing. In all my past businesses, I have partners. The technical side. Or the marketing side. Some have succeeded spectacularly as some have failed equally spectacularly.

Those that have failed, failed because there were weaknesses in certain areas which we have failed to identify or having identified were unable to control them. The success rate of businesses are paltry, even as we read of the many successful companies. I think less than 1 in 10 business ventures are successful and its worse for certain sectors like restaurants.

So doing business is not easy. And why should it be any easier for baccarat as a business? At least in Baccarat the rules are iron clad. Total points closer to 9 wins. If you need a 3-side ie 6,7 or 8 to win, you cannot change a 4-side (9 or 10) into a 3-side. In business, you could take advantage of your connections to alter the landscape or your competitor could do the same. Not in Baccarat.

 

In my opinion, it is important to understand what are the factors that will be key to making it or breaking it. The Chimp is crucial. Continue as follows:-


The Computer is 20 times faster than the Human and 4 times faster than the Chimp.

The Human and the Chimp are constantly at loggerheads but sometimes they are in agreement on certain issues and they work together for the good if the Human individual.

Those of us who have played Baccarat before will recall days when you have lost a lot of money only to recover the whole lot and even end up winning. When losing a considerable sum of money, people lose control; lose their peace.

During the rare occasions one can go wild betting irresponsibly but yet somehow managed to win back what has been lost and even more. These rare occasions will be the Gremlins. So when one loses in future the Chimp will draw on the Gremlins and bet even higher bets when losing (cue Martingale) because the Gremlins are telling the Chimp to bet more and win back the losses based on a past experience.

But there are more occasions that when you have lost a lot of money, it is unlikely that you will win them all back. In fact, if one persists in such a situation, the losses will pile and after all money is lost, one is left to rue the situation.

So when you have been losing a lot of money, the Human can draw upon the Autopilot and say enough is enough. Or more likely, the Chimp will draw on the Gremlins and push you to make irrational bets because the Gremlins have had the experience of winning back.

We can input information of what to do into the Computer as Autopilots or Gremlins. But in such struggles, the Chimp will win. Even if we manage the Chimp to go with the Autopilot, the Chimp is unpredictable and can resurface to take control at any time causing untold losses. The Chimp interprets the situation first before passing it to the Human who has 20% the strength of the Chimp.