Baccarat Baccarat - the best small business

Guiness is alcohol. But not all alcohol is Guiness.

Cashew is a nut. But not all nuts are cashew.

Cats are animals. But not all animals are cats.

Trends are patterns. But not all patterns are trends.

Some on this forum seems to be taking issue with betting on trends or anti trends.

To clarify the narrative, people bet on patterns. Patterns that make cognitive sense to their own brains. And each would defer in their recognition and also their levels of beliefs which influence whether they want to bet or not and if so, how much of a bet.

If we divide the baccarat world, to my view there is the pattern player; both trend and anti trend and the other category who bets randomly, the Gods, so to speak. Someone should start a thread on how to bet randomly and win.

 

A little real info for you all. At the start of a Baccarat shoe with B or P, a Red or Black, High or Low and Odd or Even happening at Roulette, will display a wide range of percentages.
Example 2 B 1 P is 66% to 33%. Psychologically, it looks as though one side is dominating but actually it's not. It's just one more B than P. But as the shoe goes further to 50 hands you can see probability of 1 more hand of B to P will translate to 1%. 10 shoes later 1 more B is just a fraction of a percent. Even if there is a run of 5 Bs, the percentage hardly move away from each other.
The purpose of this explanation is to tell everybody those people who claimed to win more than 50% is full of shit. You may have won 20hands more today but the percentage will not move in the long run when binary options games are concerned.
Bet selection DON'T win games.
Money Management with proper Mindset will give you a better chance and THAT only translate to small wins.
Need to work for it and NOT gamble for it. Period.

 

Let's settle this.
1 day 10 shoes
1 month play 20 times. 20 x 10 = 200 shoes
5 months will translate to 200 x 5 = 1000 shoes
1 shoe =70 hands. 1000 x 70 = 70,000 hands

If you claim you win 2% more:
2% x 70,000 = 1,400 hands
Unit bet $100
$100 x 1.400 hands = $140,000

So those posters who claims to win 52% by just betting $100 units will win $140,000 A HUNDRED AND FORTY THOUSAND DOLLARS in 5 months.
MATH don't lie.

 

Actually using 52% will double the $140000 win to $280000 win.
52% win means 48% loss. A difference of 4% and not 2%

 

A very enjoyable post by Lung Yeh.


ND

 

I think that someone should be you. I enjoy your writing and intelligence on the subject.

Mark

 

Hey different stroke for different folk and different cats can different ways; but no dispute some styles are more efficient and make more sense logical than other, hey hey.

 

In the long run, nobody wins at baccarat. In the long run, the odds of B or P is @50. In the long run....

Live life for the long run. But in baccarat, play to win for the here and now. Nobody can survive in the long run, if they cannot win in the short run.

In my view, take advantage of the situational results which comes in patterns which are NOT random. Yes, long run the game is random. Why think about 1,000,000 games when we first must win one game. One by win. Its the cents that make a dollar and a dollar that makes a thousand and the million.

The purveyors of doom will have you believe (and after long winded stories) that baccarat cannot be beaten in the long run. Like life should not be lived because their life is not lived as it should be.

Hand on my heart, I do believe it presents a special opportunity to those who really want it, to make it as a successful business of their own.

“If you want something badly enough, the whole universe will conspire to make it happen” Paulo Coelho

 

Good post.
It’s the quantum leap that many don’t get and that’s the appreciation of the value of 1.cent . This lack of understanding is the very issue that prevents them from success in any endeavour. Let alone life and especially in baccarat.

They argue for the sake of arguing, life is tooooo short to be rehashing a rehashed post over and over again, I was going to allude to a broken record stuck in its own track ,but I had to dumb it down , not for you lungyeh, but the other younger readers lol that doesn’t understand what vinyl is let alone sounds like lol.
Cheers

 

Been busy. The below posts was a reply to my question as to whether the poster is making money on his -ve 5 step Martingale. He went on to reference some of my previous writings so I thought it appropriate to clear the air on this thread instead.

My response is preceded with >>>

———————————

Yes, it has been profitable. My average win days to a bust is 1 in 5 1/2 days. 31 unit loss to 44 units win. It's been 15 years but I did not play for a year because of the pandemic. I am constantly coming out with new ways to play my 5 Marty. There is infinite ways to play a 5 Marty and I learned NOT to fell in love with any of them.

It's funny how when a new system is developed, it always works until it don't. So for me it is always something new and a few wins and done.

I had been through your philosophy of controlling your money and I failed. In theory it's all good and simple but in practical because the wins and losses comes in all shapes and ways and sizes that things have to happen according to your decisions and that makes a lot of uncertainty.

Basically, your way is VERY DEPENDANT on WIAR or LIAR. All you did was moving your win/loss in such a way that you won't get hurt IMMEDIATELY but can still get hurt in a stretch-out way. Your actions hinged heavily on COMEBACKS and personally I think that's not business like. You mentioned Baccarat as Small Business.

>>> 1) In a loss situation, everything hinges on comebacks. Does not a -ve Marty depends all and everything on a comeback? I am a bit confused here ....

>>> But my point is, trying to mount a comeback from a loss of -3/4 or even 5 units would definitely sound more surmountable than trying to make a comeback from -31 units. Still do-able. Just more stressful unless blessed with your psychological profile. My Chimp would be lose!!!

>>> 2)The title of the thread saying Baccarat as the best small business was supported with basis as to why I consider it as such ie no production bottleneck problems, QA, human resource, admin, purchasing et al. You are invited to re-read if it is not recallable.

To me, Business means you have a steady flow of profits INTERRUPTED by expenses, costs and payroll. My way fits in better.

Profits = the daily 8 units win

Expenses, Costs and Payroll = the busts

Profits comes in everyday but expenses like rent and utilities is once a month. Cost of products are usually invoice by invoice. Therefore in a business, SOME DAYS requires you to pay out more than to receive in. With this mindset and reason, DO YOU STILL THINK A 31 UNIT BUST is UNACCEPTABLE?


>>> Not every business are lucky enough to be always profitable, as possibly yours. The name of the game is to be able to survive the worst periods. While extreme, businesses do experience perfect storms as many are facing now with this pandemic. Businesses have many similarities to baccarat. Business operators experience so much boom they feel they are God and can do no wrong. They keep on expanding until a perfect storm hit them. Same as in Baccarat, they keep on winning. Hit a loss and they think it is a hiccup. Continue playing fresh in their minds the recent wins. And they continue to lose. Negative Martingale? The casino cant wait for you to Marty using their casino currency. Then its too late....

>>> To answer your question, 31 unit bust per bankroll session, yes, it is still UNacceptable to me. But please, dont let me discourage you. Been there done that. At 5 dozen years of age, eaten more salt than most eat rice.

Be guided accordingly.

 

lungyeh at beginning you said your earning living with it and now this statement that it doesnt work long term, so you like to play and be around that atmosphere for entertainment purposes only?, is this what your saying

 

Sorry if my message was wrongly understood. I was being sarcastic with those who keep on saying that Baccarat cannot be won in the long term. We have to worry and win in the immediate, in the short term to talk long term.

They say in the long term baccarat is random. But in the shoe we are playing here and now, there may be patterns at play and our mission is to win this short term situation.

They say in the long term the House Edge (HE) and the -ve expectation will make the casino a winner. Mathematically that may be true but in the short term there are imbalances for us to exploit and win.

Win the short term and make it consistent for the long term. For sure it is not for entertainment. I have stated earlier, there are cheaper forms of entertainment. Its money and therefore, serious business brader.

 

One can be a recreational gambler but playing like a professional at a casino offering full entertainment .


That`s Fun.



ND

 

It can also be VERY boring.

 

A relaxed way enjoying life to the fullest while also owning a profitable business. Not boring .

 

after 2 months its total minus 2 units. Average profit per month -1. Have you got similar results

 

Mabsei, I have never pisted any results about winning or losses . You have a great imagination.


Have you finally learned the meaning of " rat holing" ? Tje key that makes you a potential winner ?

 

Mansri , My advice is to adapt the rat holing method which is the best pah to the winners circle.

 

Honestly, the most cat always gonna be the recreational players. Ain't nothing wrong with that but it's a whole different mindset, hey hey.

 

Mansi, I would think it is quite unusual to +/- 1 unit per month. Baccarat would be more volatile than that; based on my observations. Not that I advocate volatility and increased risk taking but baccarat, as in any business would entail at least, a small measure of risk. I had categorised 4 types of players:-

1) Dare to win, Scared to lose
2) Dare to win, Dare to lose
3) Scared to win, Dare to Lose
4) Scared to win, Scared to lose

1) is more likely to win long term if accompanied by proper MM. 2) and 3) promises a trip to the morgue. 4) might as well dont start or could end up being dragged to the morgue as well.

Some humour required ....