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Baccarat Baccarat - the best small business

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Lungyeh, Sep 13, 2020.

  1. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Deja vue Monte Carlo ca. 1905 subject Paroli and Martingale. Enjoy.
     
  2. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Jae, I am impressed because you are a person who likes to support all your actions with an explanation and that is where opinions are deemed opinions and not you are right and I am wrong.
    Negative -EV does not mean you are going to lose for sure in the long run. It simply means when you and the House display EQUAL WEIGHT, the House wins but your mindset should be if you were to treat Baccarat as a business which LY always say, it's expenses incurred while doing business. How you want to absorb it is up to you.
    Odds and Probability are often cross used and most of the time we are talking about Probability but many choose to use the word odds to denote what they mean. What are my odds of getting that job? Not too many of What are my probability of getting that job. We do hear What are my chances of getting that job?

    Think about this. If the casino can FORCED patrons to have no options but can only bet Banker with a fixed Flat bet amount, would Baccarat be this popular? Then why are we putting restrictions on ourselves? Odds is Probability over Payout Ratio. Baccarat is 50/50 and the payout is 1 to 1. In this case we can just say EVEN. A 2 step Martingale has a probability of 87.5% of winning but the odds is again even because you are risking 3 to win 1. It is not a disadvantage or advantage when you prefer MORE probability but have to gave up the payout ratio.
    So do not think for once the 5% commission on B is insignificant. You choose probability by betting B only and have to face that 5%

    Can we go head to head battle with the Casino?
    1. The House Edge
    2. Round the clock fresh dealers with no interest meaning no pressure with win/loss of casino's money.
    3. Fatigue
    4. Emotions
    5. Never ending Bankroll for the House
    6. You are Not in your domain or comfort zone but the House is.
    7. Mistakes in execution

    The people that secures longevity in the casino are what we called Casino Rats or Casino Fleas. They don't win much and their losses are always manageable. The greed is completely taken out. They sucker punch to win. Sucker punch is almost impossible to avoid. That's why they are always successful.

    To win BIG money , you must bet BIG money and prepare to lose Big Money. This is so evident in your approach using OG with Banker only.
    Good Luck.
     
  3. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Those rats are nibbling on the cheese and have a grand time.


    A like for that one.




    Cheers
     
    Lungyeh likes this.
  4. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    One big reason alotta cats can't successfully run a baccarats business is cuz they can't make the transition from recreational player mindset to professional player minds set, hey hey.
     
    Lungyeh and Punkcity like this.
  5. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Not every one can be a pro for some reasons but can be an upper class casino rat.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
    Lungyeh likes this.
  6. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Don’t hold your breath, not a soon event while he still has his day job . Lol
    Reminds me of tv program strange tales from the crypt. Equally absurd. But always worth a lol. Cheers
     
    gizmotron likes this.
  7. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Hit the bullseye once again.
    I might also add the reason is they actually don’t know, don’t want to know or are incapable of knowing the difference. We need them to keep the light paid for at casino, we need them to go back to their card dealing jobs.
    As a side note that’s why one reason anyway that I stopped amateur poker as I had to take a turn at dealing lol. Cheers
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021

  8. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Ouch! Are you that desperate for this bashing. I said the imbalances fluctuates and not Math fluctuates.
    Look! The 3 rabbits making fun of the tortoise. You know how the story ends!
     
  9. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Yes the tortoise ends up in turtle soup.

    As long as people contrive rule based mechanical systems they will always end up hitting the sequence of death enough times to wipe out all their progress.

    The only way to avoid this is to grow past mechanical systems.

    It's OK to insist that this phase of growing works for you.

    Take it to the casino. Live the big life. You will be the first.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
  10. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    and this:

    What are math based findings of imbalances?

    "This does not compute Will Robinson."

     
  11. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Oh. It's Elementary Math. How all 5 hand permutations stack against each other. No matter how you look at it, I have a probability of 97% making a unit although it is fractional and you have a probability of 50% making a complete unit. The feasibility of both is a tie.
    I am not changing the odds of the game but it seems you are by your fallacy based reasons.
     
  12. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Attacking what I do by misunderstanding it and then misrepresenting it does not answer my question. Probability, an unproven science at best, does not have a definitive conclusion when considering Bayesian Inference.

    "Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available."

    You should not attack a win streak unless conditional probability suggests that you are in a favorable condition. This happens if you seek and find "more evidence or information."

    Your conclusions are not based in Bayesian inference. They are based in a belief of absolutism. "Frequentist probability or frequentism is an interpretation of probability; it defines an event's probability as the limit of its relative frequency in many trials."


    So I will ask the question that you did not answer again.

    What are math based findings of imbalances?
     
  13. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    CARLSBERG

    Probably the best beer in the world.

    What theory was that?
     
  14. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Probability. Unproven Science? Who is talking about Science or Beliefs. I am talking about Having 5 chances at a 50/50 proposition and only need 1.
    31/32 chance of winning. 96.9%.
    That Math based probability. Odds are intact though at 50/50 with House Edge.
    You are basically saying your findings will give you a higher probability of winning WITHOUT having to accept a diminished payout ratio. Now that is fallacy based probability.
    Imbalances are the events that you personally encountered and Bet Selection is derived from simple Math that a block of 5 hand occurrence shows a significant disparity over the other permutations that is in your records. Together with Hit & Run means the House has to overcome great probability to come out w
     

  15. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    How the hell do you know? You are a Martingale gambler. When you blow up please turn to the religion of math Zombies'. You're already counting on it.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
  16. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Basta
     
  17. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Err... Might be the Vikings? No that's Norway.
    Denmark? I see you know about the Long Cool Dane!
     
  18. Craps

    Craps Active Member

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    Baccarat is invented based on a lot of real Math for it to be profitable for the casino.
    I know past events does not affect future outcomes or does it? That's why IN CASE Law of Averages were to happen, I make sure I am on the winning side. That's my philosophy. Even if there is a bust it's no big deal. 31 units is so manageable.
     
  19. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    After some real life betting and assignments of paper betting the feedback and conclusion is that I will stick to my LY holistic approach for a proven consistent and less stressful baccarat business life.

    For someone who has been advocating Loss Management with belief and passion, I cannot stomach the drawdown apparently prevalent with OG/Banker. And also more so when the pattern is telling you ‘bet HPB on Player la idiot!’ and the chart screaming at you and the OG/Banker necessitates you to bet B deep into a grind. A sucker for punishment.

    So for now, I will stick with ND’s high end Michelin approach.

    I am conducting further studies on OG/Banker; if it can be mass replicated. Nevertheless, Jae has done a very good job detailing his experience and giving hope to some and hopefully who can test and fine tune before embarking on their journey.

    Peace.
     
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  20. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Gads. You are so confident now. You will change your tune once you self destruct.

    Why is that you guys all skulk off into obscurity after your wishful thinking blows up in your face?

    Just look at the archives of just about every gambling forum. It's the global effect of Martingale Progression players.
     

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